Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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VXF daily (S Fund): Keeping it small, as I continue to play small ball in a market like this one. We shall see if buyers keep coming in during the last hour of trading.

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We shall see how this daily cycle low plays out. Getting back above the 10 dma might not be so easy right now. Watching!

Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday.

Thursday was only day 22 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks about 2 weeks shy of its normal timing band for a daily cycle low. However, stocks formed a convincing bullish reversal on Thursday that regained its breakdown level. If stocks form a swing low, that will signal an early DCL. A break above 4294.73 will form a daily swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 22 as the DCL. Stocks will still need to break above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA before a trending move can develop.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/24/daily-cycle-low-5/
 

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SPY/RSX daily: Well, if you bought the dip during the bloodbath yesterday you are doing well today.

I took a small position of RSX, and it's turning out to be the biggest winner so far....

02/24/2022 08:16:14 Bought 100 RSX @ 14.3
 

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SPY weekly: A huge move up after moving way below the lower BB. A close back above the 50 week SMA was a huge win for the Bulls. Not much you can do in your TSP account in a market like this one with only two moves a month. For those that timed the move down and bought when there was blood in the streets - Nice Trade! I will continue to keep it small trading in the current market. Waiting to see if this turns out to be a nice trend trading move. We shall see if the SPY can move back above the 10 week SMA in the days ahead. Red line around 451ish.
 

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Last edited:
The Wall of Worry is getting higher.

https://twitter.com/jessefelder

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa
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The last 21 times Nasdaq had an intraday reversal of +5% happened during brutal bear markets.

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie

19h
The S&P 500 has soared 150 pts from the nearby lows and yet Treasury yields haven't budged from where they were at Wednesday's close. Both asset classes can't be right. Or at least bondies are looking at the sharp equity rally as being part of an Elliott Wave bear market bounce.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown policymakers, companies and markets into an inherently uncertain and unsettling world.

If you're an investor, here's what you should be watching out for, writes https://twitter.com/elerianm
 

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SPY/RSX: RSX continues to be sold...... Watching the show and doing some ST trading.
 

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RSX daily: Down around 73% since the November high as we head into the last hour of trading.
 

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SPY/SSO/UWM daily: Tagging the lower BB's. We shall see if we are close to a ST bounce. I have mainly been watching the show. Heading into the last hour of trading.
 

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Price action smashed through support while MACD crossed downwards. Still in a downtrend so the bears are still in control. One thing though was the volume was small for such a big move down.

3-7-SPY.png
 
"Still in a downtrend so the bears are still in control."

I agree the trend remains down.

Still, I'm a short-term trader so I placed a counter-trend trade using SSO after tagging the lower BB..... I will be keeping these trades small....

03/07/2022 17:53:58 Bought SSO @ 56.12
 

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VXF daily: ( S Fund) A possible higher low might be in play, or we could just make a lower low....... We shall see how it plays out. I'm staying very nimble while it all plays out. The 150.13 low marker is up next.
 

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SPY/VXF daily: ( C and S funds) The trend remains down, so all newly placed long trades are counter-trend. Catching the falling knife is more about luck, but I do use odds based on my tools when making a grab at it.
 

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robo said:
SPY/VXF daily: ( C and S funds) The trend remains down, so all newly placed long trades are counter-trend. Catching the falling knife is more about luck, but I do use odds based on my tools when making a grab at it.
Click to expand...

As long as we grab the handle, it's all good...
 
SPY daily: Selling 1/2 of my SSO position. I will continue to only ST trade and stay very nimble in a market like this one. What kind of turn will the War take next? The 10 day sma is up next and I have NO IDEA what will happen. I traded the lower BB tag and we shall see if it has legs.... Made a few bucks on this trade.

Filled Sell 150 SSO Market 58.25
 

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