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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: There are times one should just watch the show.....
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robo
Well-known member
HYG daily: Does HYG lead SPY?
Why the junk bond market is sending a historic signal
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-02-15 at 07:30:00 CST
High-yield bonds suffer historic selling pressure
Starting in November, we looked at suspect performance in high-yield bonds as a worrying sign. The Cumulative Advance/Decline Line was diverging as more and more bonds were declining even as stocks hit new highs.
Bonds were trying to recover from mild oversold conditions, but there were concerns about its sustainability. It's gotten worse since then.
High-yield bonds made a comeback at the end of the year, but soon after, more bonds were falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs, a clear sign of risk-off behavior among some of the most sensitive and forward-looking investors.
About the only bright spot is that selling pressure has been so focused over the past month that we're nearing some historic extremes. A broad cross-section of indicators is showing broad selling pressure and widespread pessimism.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-e1f6b1e44c-1271291994
Why the junk bond market is sending a historic signal
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-02-15 at 07:30:00 CST
High-yield bonds suffer historic selling pressure
Starting in November, we looked at suspect performance in high-yield bonds as a worrying sign. The Cumulative Advance/Decline Line was diverging as more and more bonds were declining even as stocks hit new highs.
Bonds were trying to recover from mild oversold conditions, but there were concerns about its sustainability. It's gotten worse since then.
High-yield bonds made a comeback at the end of the year, but soon after, more bonds were falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs, a clear sign of risk-off behavior among some of the most sensitive and forward-looking investors.
About the only bright spot is that selling pressure has been so focused over the past month that we're nearing some historic extremes. A broad cross-section of indicators is showing broad selling pressure and widespread pessimism.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-e1f6b1e44c-1271291994
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: A nice gap up to start the day, but it needs to get back above the 200 dma and hold. We shall see if this was just a half cycle low.
Stocks closed lower again on Monday.
The peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle to extend the intermediate cycle decline. However stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.
Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday at the 61% fib level. So it is possible to see a bounce here, which would likely make day 15 a half cycle low. We would need to see stocks close above the 50 day MA before we could have any confidence that a rally can be sustained. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/14/stocks-at-61-fib-level/
Stocks closed lower again on Monday.
The peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle to extend the intermediate cycle decline. However stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.
Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday at the 61% fib level. So it is possible to see a bounce here, which would likely make day 15 a half cycle low. We would need to see stocks close above the 50 day MA before we could have any confidence that a rally can be sustained. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/14/stocks-at-61-fib-level/
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robo
Well-known member
Stocks Deliver Sell Signal
Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday.
Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend that is characterized by highs forming below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal. The peak on day 7 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/17/stocks-deliver-sell-signal-2/
Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday.
Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend that is characterized by highs forming below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers a cycle band sell signal. The peak on day 7 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4222.62 will form a failed daily cycle.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/02/17/stocks-deliver-sell-signal-2/
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robo
Well-known member
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
Feb 18
For the first time on record, the Fed is embarking on its first tightening campaign with the Dow, SPX, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all trading below their 200-day trendlines. And the rates cycle hasn't even started yet. Good luck to long-only equity investors.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Jesse Felder Retweeted
Julian Brigden
@JulianMI2
22h
I understand that inertia is a powerful force. But I find it amazing that investors still think that US stocks are the place to be invested and will continue to outperform the rest of the world. I for one, don't take 5 standard deviations (1 in 1mio) bets.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
@EconguyRosie
Feb 18
For the first time on record, the Fed is embarking on its first tightening campaign with the Dow, SPX, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all trading below their 200-day trendlines. And the rates cycle hasn't even started yet. Good luck to long-only equity investors.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Jesse Felder Retweeted
Julian Brigden
@JulianMI2
22h
I understand that inertia is a powerful force. But I find it amazing that investors still think that US stocks are the place to be invested and will continue to outperform the rest of the world. I for one, don't take 5 standard deviations (1 in 1mio) bets.
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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robo
Well-known member
VXF daily: ( S fund) Looks like we might just test the lows with all the noise coming from the War Drums.... Close to tagging the lower BB....
Starting to buy a few shares of VXF at Vanguard after going flat..... ( A high risk trade and that is why I will be keeping it small )
Bottom Line: The Trend remains down!
We shall see if the 152.52 low marker holds, or we get an undercut. There is probably some stops around that level.....
Starting to buy a few shares of VXF at Vanguard after going flat..... ( A high risk trade and that is why I will be keeping it small )
Bottom Line: The Trend remains down!
We shall see if the 152.52 low marker holds, or we get an undercut. There is probably some stops around that level.....
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: A nice bounce after tagging the lower BB. We shall see how it closes..... Is the SPY making a higher low or headed to a lower low. We just don't know yet......
Bottom Line: The trend remains down!
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
7m
3:30 PM
Markets Continue To Test SPX Closing Low of 4326 From January 27
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
1h
I don't know exactly what this is... but I know what it AIN'T... this AIN'T "BUY ON THE TRUMPETS"
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
Bottom Line: The trend remains down!
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
7m
3:30 PM
Markets Continue To Test SPX Closing Low of 4326 From January 27
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
thomas
@VolumeDynamics
1h
I don't know exactly what this is... but I know what it AIN'T... this AIN'T "BUY ON THE TRUMPETS"
https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Gravitational Pull
Stocks closed below the 200 day MA on Thursday then delivered bearish follow through Friday and Monday to signal the daily cycle decline. But there is something more sinister afoot.
Stocks are overdue for their yearly cycle low and appear to be feeling the gravitational pull of the pending YCL. A monthly swing high is required to complete the yearly cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 4222.62 will form a monthly swing high.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/
Stocks closed below the 200 day MA on Thursday then delivered bearish follow through Friday and Monday to signal the daily cycle decline. But there is something more sinister afoot.
Stocks are overdue for their yearly cycle low and appear to be feeling the gravitational pull of the pending YCL. A monthly swing high is required to complete the yearly cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 4222.62 will form a monthly swing high.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
VXF daily: Waiting on the next news event.....
The internet turned “money” into a hobby
Why (mostly) 20- and 30-something dudes made crypto and sports betting their personality.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22922511/crypto-nfts-sports-betting-money-hobby
The internet turned “money” into a hobby
Why (mostly) 20- and 30-something dudes made crypto and sports betting their personality.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22922511/crypto-nfts-sports-betting-money-hobby
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: A very nice bounce as we head into the last hour of trading..... I did buy the dip.... Beer Money Trade....
02/24/2022 07:01:38 Bought 22 SSO @ 54.8299
02/24/2022 07:00:40 Bought 25 SSO @ 54.84
Update:
I also bought a few shares of VXF this morning. Having all your money in a TSP account with only two moves a month really sucks during times like this.
The following order executed on 02/24/2022 at 10:50 AM, Eastern time:
Account:
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Market
Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
Quantity: 25 share(s)
Price:* $154.31
02/24/2022 07:01:38 Bought 22 SSO @ 54.8299
02/24/2022 07:00:40 Bought 25 SSO @ 54.84
Update:
I also bought a few shares of VXF this morning. Having all your money in a TSP account with only two moves a month really sucks during times like this.
The following order executed on 02/24/2022 at 10:50 AM, Eastern time:
Account:
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Market
Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
Quantity: 25 share(s)
Price:* $154.31
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