Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

SPY daily: Getting closer to the completion of this daily cycle. Not normal to have 5 daily cycles before we get an ICL, but nothing is normal about this stock market. Will we get a tag of the 50 dma and then a continuation of the melt-up during the next daily cycle low (DCL). That would make it 6 if that happens.

SPY weekly: Waiting on the next ICL..... LOL..... if we every get one.....

IWM weekly: Still keeping my eye on this sector. Having some trouble after tagging the upper BB. So that pattern remains in play.... It could be different this time because we did get a tag of the 200 dma and buyers came in.

 

[robo]

Taking a look at a few monthly charts:

VTI monthly: The Total Stock market ( A mix of the C and S funds....)
SPY monthly: The C Fund
IWM monthly: Traders
QQQ monthly Traders
VXF monthly: The S fund and it has basically gone sideways since printing the 188.00 marker several months ago.

 

[robo]

My VIX daily chart below. Just filling the gap? We shall see.....

VXX/SPY 2 hour chart:

VIX - working on that cheap(er) protection theme
VIX is back below 16 again, currently trading at 15.78. Market is realizing relatively low volatility as it trends higher. Our take on VIX and hedging/protection stays intact;

"...current equity move higher will hopefully get equity vol sellers to enter the game and start puking vol...this is setting up for some great long vol/VIX trades soon...but we are not there yet."

Note the move lower in the VIX term structure. People are once again "forced" into selling the short end of the curve as theta checks burn quickly...

Chart showing the move lower today compared to yesterday.

 

[robo]

It looks like this historical data has caught the attention of a few other folks. They too are now looking over this data. The yearly cycle remains stretched, but the trend remains up!

Constant new all time highs - time to worry?
August proved to be a great month for new all time highs.

Last time we had similar all time high counts was in 1929 and 1987. On both occasions market decided crashing in October.

Current melt up is playing out well and vols are in implosion mode again.

Ideally protection becomes dirt cheap and we can start tilting the book into some serious long premium plays/hedges/downside speculation. After all October tends to be volatile...

 

[tsptalk]

This seemed appropriate for the Bear Cave:

The Four Horsemen of the Coming Crash, Pt 1

BY PHOENIX CAPITAL RESEARCH
WEDNESDAY, SEP 01, 2021 - 8:43

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been outlining the clear evidence that stocks are in a bubble, arguably the largest stock market bubble of all time.

In truth, however, it’s not just a bubble in stocks, it’s a bubble in Treasuries, which the Fed has manipulated to absurd levels via over $2 trillion in Quantitative Easing (QE) during the last 18 months.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-09-01/four-horsemen-coming-crash-pt-1

 

[robo]

Hmmmmm..... I guess it's who you ask

SPY monthly: The melt-up..... Odds of tagging the 40 mma during the next YCL continue to increase. LOL..... That doesn't mean it will, but the point of the article is Risk Management. Your position should be smaller now. Why the 40 mma. I use the 40 mma as the mean. It doesn't get to far above it in a normal market, and ususally tags it during YCL or corrections. ( see my chart below and the 40 mma is the red line) It's currently around 42%ish above the mean, and historically that rubber band is very stretched!

The Melt-Up Has Already Happened
Jeff Clark | Sep 2, 2021 | Market Minute | 3 min read

Carve another notch is the “monthly winners” column.

The S&P 500 closed higher for August, making it the seventh month in a row of gains. That’s the longest monthly winning streak in over 30 years.

But, can the index make it eight in a row by rallying even more in September?

I’m going to say “no.”

Look at this long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 (SPX)…

The stock market has rallied almost straight up over the past year.

So, if you’re piling into the stock market right here in anticipation of a “melt-up” phase – you’re too late. The melt-up has already happened, and the chart reflects it.

This action has created a “parabolic” move on the chart. Parabolic moves are unsustainable. And, when they burn out, the ensuing decline often wipes out nearly the entire rally.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/the-melt-up-has-already-happened/

 

[Bullitt]

Absolutely, and there is zero risk management anymore. I hear mostly, "I like to be risky in stocks." Very easy to say when it's going up. When it goes down, that's when people suddenly become "buy and holders". Will stocks outperform bonds over the long run? Yeah, they should, but it will not be a smooth ride. No reason to be taking on more risk than is needed to obtain your personal goals and that's where so many go wrong. How much is enough? "Just a little... bit.... more, then I'll sell."

RE: Melt up; Sjug recommended buying bonds a few weeks ago and he's been calling for the melt up since early 2019. I can't disagree as I keep a solid allocation to bonds at all times, even in a bull market.

Was stopped out of a stock last week with mostly LT cap gains and it's down 10% since. Some of that money was reinvested into a bond ETF.

 

[robo]

SPY monthly data: A longer term look..... Note how far stretched above the 40 mma the SPY is today. That is mainly because of the Fed.... A couple of trillion worth...

 

[Bullitt]

That is mainly because of the Fed.... A couple of trillion worth...

And prodigies like Keith:

“I knew I was looking for high volatility when I got into this,” said Keith Williams-Parker, 38, a teacher in Virginia who has the majority of his roughly $85,000 portfolio in companies that merged with SPACs. It peaked north of $100,000 earlier this year.

Mr. Williams-Parker said he tries to emulate star technology fund manager Cathie Wood in targeting companies like SoFi and energy-storage firm Stem Inc. that have growth potential.

“I am still swinging for the fences,” he said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/spac-rout-erases-75-billion-in-startup-value-11630575180?

 

[redbrian]

Zeberg calling for a bust this fall and then a Commodity Boom.

 

[robo]

Sentiment: bears refuse giving up

The problem with this market...
...is that bears remain at elevated levels. Latest AAII sentiment shows bears refuse giving up. Therefore, the upside remains the main force...

 

[redbrian]

"The market can remain irrational longer than the bears can remain solvent."

Looking only at the “normal” seasonal tendencies without comparing it to actual prices can lead the observer to miss things, and that’s where this week’s chart shows its importance. If you tilt your head just slightly you can see that the movements of the DJIA this year are matching the pattern of the Annual Seasonal Pattern, but they are just doing so a little bit early. It is like the teeth of a key fitting into a lock, just offset a little bit. That is what the slanted lines are intended to help the eye to see.

September has a bad reputation as a awful month for the stock market. This year, that bad stuff is likely to wrap itself up early in the month, and then surprise a bunch of analysts by bringing a rising stock market for the rest of the month of September.

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/seasonal_turns_arriving_early/

 

[redbrian]

 

[robo]

My tracking data:
$USD: Waiting to see if we get a turn and how the miners will do..... A nice bounce for the miners so far.
SPY daily:
SPY weekly: Will we get a decline and an ICL this month? One would think so..... LOL..... It's been an amazing run for the SPY and the trend remains up!
GDX daily:
SPY monthly: Stretched above the mean:

The dollar:

The 9/04/21 Weekend Report Preview

The dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through Thursday and Friday.
Friday was day 25 for the daily dollar cycle, which places it in its timing band for a DCL. Closing below the 50 day MA signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. It is another signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. However a failed daily cycle is needed to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 91.76 will form a failed daily cycle.

Stocks:

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday.

At 26 weeks, stocks are due for an intermediate cycle decline. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. With a peak on day 10, if stocks deliver bearish follow through to close below the 10 day MA that would set stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. Then a break below the previous daily cycle high of 4480.26 can be used as a hard stop to to avoid a potential ICL decline.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/09/04/the-9-04-21-weekend-report-preview/

 

[robo]

SPX - 4th most closing highs in 100 years
The correction these days is the melt up as upside remains the main pain trade.



The year with the most new closing highs over the past 100 years is 1995.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

LOL..... Time to get ready for the real melt-up..... Ok, I will be watching.... Amazing run!

Still not a believer in the SPX seasonality?
The 1995 pattern continues to trade rock solid. Time to get ready for the real melt up?

SPX 1995 vs now needs little additional comments.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[redbrian]

I have the first usable version of my new charting program working - stock price download, simple moving average, graphing, scrolling, multiple time periods and save screen.



Slap that like button if you think I should keep working on it...

 

[redbrian]

I tried to duplicate those charts that show a correlation between the Dow and Fed assets. The best I could do was a match in the 2000's and 2019. If it reconnects again then stocks have more melting up to do (or the Fed tapers hard and fast which is unlikely).



Cycle chart. Stock DCL due soon. I hope the dollar bounces off of the 200 because the DCL is a month away. Gold hugging the 200 with a trend line at 1900.



Stock sentiment and deviation are high. TLT is neutral. Sentiment is getting low on UUP.



Daily/weekly charts. SPY overbought. UUP oversold on daily. GLD, GDX and SIL overbought on daily.




P.S. Who do I talk to fix Insert Image so it stays on the last source used. It is getting old switching back to From Computer every time I attach an image.

 

[redbrian]

On the Upside: Ending the week above $33.00 would be bullish. However, stiff resistance lies just ahead at $34.25 and then again near $37.00. Sustained upside may prove difficult without a significant increase in investment demand. I think as confidence wanes, gold should begin to respond positively.

On the Downside: Closing below today’s $32.50 gap anytime next week would be bearish and could trigger additional downside.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/31448

 

[robo]

$HUI weekly: Remains under the 10 wma, but is trying to move above.....
$XAU weekly: Same as above.....

Bottom Line: Waiting on the weekly buy signals.....

Morris and Jack:


Morris

Sep 3, 2021 Gold Stocks: Bull Flags & The Jobs Report Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s

Jack

Major support for $HUI now.

Summary

Long term – on major SELL signal.

Short term – on buy signals.

Gold sector cycle is down.

$$$ We closed out all of our positions with good profits, and now waiting for new set ups.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/jack-chan