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Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
Re: chickened out
"This is the first time in five years that the advance/decline line has failed to follow the market to new highs."
Is the Next Bear Market About to Begin? | Toby Connor | Safehaven.comskycophigh
Market Tracker
Re: chickened out
hey Birchtree, love your wit and smarts, any thoughts on the dollar, if we get closer to a default???? i c your 80% I now??? Ive read many articles, including this one, that thinks the dollar will decline even more, isnt that good for the I fund??????
OTE=Birchtree;425960]"This is the first time in five years that the advance/decline line has failed to follow the market to new highs."
Is the Next Bear Market About to Begin? | Toby Connor | Safehaven.com[/QUOTE]
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
Re: chickened out
[/QUOTE]
Others here may be able to comment better than me as I have stayed away from the "I Fund" and do not follow it much. I have seen comments indicating that a drop in dollar is good for the I fund, but lately I have seen the S, C and I fund running in the same direction just at different speeds. At times it does look like a drop in dollar gives "I fund" a boost.drift into oblivion?
I don't see it:
Earnings/jobs so-so; and nothing but drift higher, not a single down day of 1% or more since the furlough ended; the obvious explanation is that this portends no end in site to QE; and a drift upwards of the indices (and the P/E of them) into oblivion - and some all time highs (SPY).
Sideways action has gone on for ~6-7 days and I expect it could break either way soon (up, such as end of Aug, or down, as in end of Sept) - but a further look shows the predominant break after sideways of 9-10 days was at least 2-3 down days; some totalling 2-3% or more. But it's been short term each time, and the drift goes higher.
I'm cautious right now - actually looking for S to pull below the 50 DMA but I may buy some before the EOM anyway.
Nothing was solved by the last debt ceiling/CR can-kick; until there is a budget and this sequester ends, disfunctionality rules. The markets don't care, apparently.
Boghie
Market Veteran
Re: drift into oblivion?
The market is done with worrying about the bad debtor that is the Federal Gubmint. It will really only affect bonds anyway...
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
Re: drift into oblivion?
Yes but what could change that is a drop in credit rating for the "Gubmint". Waiting for that little hammer to come beating when least expected. Wondering if that will happen before the next round????? I keep thinking it will happen beforehand if they get wind that the Congressional compromise committees for the budget are breaking down on talks. Its kinds been quite in the news about that so see. Thought they were supposed to have something ironed out by Dec 15. So with that in mind, maybe the market is set to keep rocketing until after Thanksgiving. I just got out to see if we have a small pull back and then jump back in until later November. Of course still minding technical indicators on daily basis.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
do you catch the drift (I don't)?
My instincts were momentarily forgotten with an IFT to burn at the end of last month:
And - as a result - I bought into a bag of poo (CSI) funds on 10/30, held my breath on the whopper down day - then choked back vomit myself as I bailed last thursday COB - for a blood curdling minus 1/2 percent for the mess;
I could have done better burying my TSP in my back yard (if I had one).
I will hold out once more - for a seasonal November bounce around the holidays; again, not a big move - but hopefully something to get me back into positerritory for the year.
Don't put too much stock into BT's bearish weblinks; he doesn't trade by them, obviously.Now what (see post for my take)?
With the tapertalk in the Fed minutes; another couple days of downward drift is expected, with a seasonal bump up just before or after turkey day, so maybe I will try to cash on that. There's also another job number and revision to last (if any), upcoming, so we shall see....Burner on high, nobody minding the oven for another week minimum
Jumped in 60%, with no intention of even looking at the market until after Black Friday; with the shirking of the Fed minutes; there seems to be no short term risk of anything, excepts overheated buying.
I expect very light trading, and a perfect exit opportunity before the end of month, in case this buying get's ridiculously over the top (like 5% up week); even then, the risk would be modest in early December (very shallow dip) - with the foreseeable risk of mayhem from a second shutdown over a month away (Jan 16, 2014), if at all. Ya never know, however, and I could use that opportunity to put my Epic pass to work (that's Vail resorts, for you non-skiers).Market doesn't seem to care about EPS anymore
No, I could not even imagine that especially, since EPS did not really change this year, and stock prices inflated anyways. (P/E went from ~12 to 16).
Market doesn't seem to care about EPS right now, so I have no idea what would happen if earnings actually rose.
At 2008 P/E, today's SPY would be ~900. Can you imagine that?Free Lunch returns week continues
Subject says it all:
If there ever was a week where nobody is selling, this is it; just some low-volume action on expected economic data and other factors (Iran deal, temporary correction in energy-related stocks), with nothing really to worry about. I had expected more, something like 2-3% through 11/29/13, which might result in a soft sell next week - but even that hasn't yet happened.
May just let it ride and buy in some more next week. That's it, for the few who are logged on (12 people at noon PST).
Happy Thanksgiving, in more ways than one!
MrBowl
TSP Pro
Re: chickened out
My biggest mistake this year was not listening to Birch enough. Even though I'm having my best year in a long long time I could be much better if I wasn't so skittish. I'm not sure I'll be bold enough to stay in all of next year, but maybe I'll pull the trigger less often. I see those folks over 30% on the year and I think "I want summa that!"
MrBowl
TSP Pro
Re: chickened out
Don't expect it to be like this next year. It's different every year. The one thing you can be sure of is that when you finally discover a pattern it stops working.
The story of my financial life!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
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