amoeba's Account Talk

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Coolhand remains bullish; I was, but not since last Friday, when I sold all 3X ETFs, metals, financials, semis, and more (SVXY, CURE, SOXL, TQQQ, ALB, MT, AA, DPST). I sense a haircut this week, on the order of 5%, more or less. Funds settle Tuesday. Sitting on 65% cash, considering short/inverse plays. Uncertainty includes Covid, stimulus, neither showing promise in immediate term.

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amoeba said:
Coolhand remains bullish; I was, but not since last Friday, when I sold all 3X ETFs, metals, financials, semis, and more (SVXY, CURE, SOXL, TQQQ, ALB, MT, AA, DPST). I sense a haircut this week, on the order of 5%, more or less. Funds settle Tuesday. Sitting on 65% cash, considering short/inverse plays. Uncertainty includes Covid, stimulus, neither showing promise in immediate term.

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I forgot, I also dumped a sizable position of ERX last Friday. But I'm holding NAIL (a net loser so far in this trade), and added to it, expecting good things as TOL, HOV, PLT, others, report. I couldn't resist fishing for gold at the end of a rainbow, and added to small positions in MPLN (don't understand what they do, other than the stock bottomed out and is going up), and MP (rare elements for magnets for various things). Also holding a big chunk of airlines (AAL) as a stimulus deal/Covid recovery play, but would like to see at least a 30% gain before I sell that one. Most of what I sold retreated today, except lithium.....

Pulled a modest amount out of TSP equities (10% more), into G. If a stimulus deal is baked in - I sure would like to know if it is going to happen, or not, and when. If I were to guess, I would have said 2 months ago. Mounting permanent job losses (long term unemployed, discouraged workers, other parameters) will not be coming back any time soon.
 
I've been averaging out...now 21% equities in TSP...sold outperformers in Roth ALB, HASI, down on DPST, FAS, but holding an outlying winner in sector OZK. Largest long term positions are IPO, ARKK, BDX. Took a large position in SVXY at the morning low today...high risk. Chop expected.

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amoeba said:
I've been averaging out...now 21% equities in TSP...sold outperformers in Roth ALB, HASI, down on DPST, FAS, but holding an outlying winner in sector OZK. Largest long term positions are IPO, ARKK, BDX. Took a large position in SVXY at the morning low today...high risk. Chop expected.

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dumped OZK, HOV for gains today, and DPST, FAS, SOXL, others, for huge loss yesterday...held and added SVXY on the 36+ VIX, netting 40% unsettled cash in expectation of 5-10% correction over the next 1-3 weeks. Holding IPO, ARKK, BDX, IBB, WANT, added ARKG. No short funds.

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amoeba said:
dumped OZK, HOV for gains today, and DPST, FAS, SOXL, others, for huge loss yesterday...held and added SVXY on the 36+ VIX, netting 40% unsettled cash in expectation of 5-10% correction over the next 1-3 weeks. Holding IPO, ARKK, BDX, IBB, WANT, added ARKG. No short funds.

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Well that didn't happen...yet...in the mean time I somehow recouped those losses with the SVXY bet above (which I sold today) and the others which I held. Today was a real gift horse up day on top of the prior 4 with that lame jobs report. Maybe people are pumping their unemployment and stimulus checks into the market. Chips trending south following QCOM miss, but FANG keeps on keeping on. Nothing goes straight up, every day, forever. There have been and will continue to be more breaks, 5% and up.
 
fluctuations since my last post up and down in TSP and Roth put my sideways since my last post....I expect this to end soon with a blowoff sentiment rise within the next 2 weeks. Try to time sell in advance of next dip?

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Peed away most of my TSP return since April on many bad moves...out since COB last Thursday conciding with dramatic aaii sentiment drop to low 20s, lowest in over a year and largest weekly drop I can find in years. Gonna lick wounds, maybe get back in if 20, 50, EMAs recaptured. Ranked in the high 700s, nobody should be liking my posts. Embarrassing.

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amoeba said:
Peed away most of my TSP return since April on many bad moves...out since COB last Thursday conciding with dramatic aaii sentiment drop to low 20s, lowest in over a year and largest weekly drop I can find in years. Gonna lick wounds, maybe get back in if 20, 50, EMAs recaptured. Ranked in the high 700s, nobody should be liking my posts. Embarrassing.

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Sorry. I feel some of your pain. Hopefully yesterday you were able to jump in and capture some of today's green.
 
I am making this feeble post since retreating after many months of failure. I am flat for November, lost early monthly gains by not moving into G aggressively enough. I plan to go back in later this week, contingent on ^VIX falling below its 20 EMA and bullish sentiment <31. Will keep a close eye on USA Covid #s, new cases, hospitalizations, deaths.

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amoeba said:
I am making this feeble post since retreating after many months of failure. I am flat for November, lost early monthly gains by not moving into G aggressively enough. I plan to go back in later this week, contingent on ^VIX falling below its 20 EMA and bullish sentiment <31. Will keep a close eye on USA Covid #s, new cases, hospitalizations, deaths.

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Hopefully if at all, this is the case with the new strain and we get a bounce back this week and still get a Santa rally next month. Guess we will see which news CNBC etc pushes to viewers to get people watching/reading, fear or the possibility that it could be very mild. Reuters post this today from some Dr in South Africa who said all she has seen were mild cases and they are just being treated at home. No reduced oxygen levels etc. https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...n-variant-have-very-mild-symptoms-2021-11-28/ Praying this is a weak strain and nothing to panic over.
 
'Santa Rallies' start in November...

I'm afraid this is likely to be a rally in reverse - and, not because of some day to day COVID news. Businesses are retrenching AND increasing prices. No bueno. Doesn't look good out there...

But, I can - and often am - be wrong. So, why be all out or all in. I kinda prefer to be somewhat in per my age and goals, but I will hedge out if we start turning out.
 
Noting the 40% flip in bull-bear spread since 11/11/21 (+24 to -16), matching the -16 September low, I am all in COB Friday... the spread has been oscillating recently....but it can get worse, and string together negative spreads - December 2018 being the nutcracker in my memory. That +24 (coming off a big October) was one reason I averaged out in November, though not fast enough to beat the G-fund. 2018 witnessed me P-ing away 10% in December, almost ending the year in negatory. Not gonna do it again, unless Monday is a window-leaper.
 
Another late afternoon peak, but selling is weak so far; I think both S/C funds will close up 1+% today, and significantly more in the next few days. We'll see.
 
Aaii turned uninformative, with a rare 40%+ dominant neutral reading. I will continue all in, overweighting S, expecting downward momentum in ^VIX through Monday at least. Covid case #, deaths, showing seasonal increase, nothing extreme.

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Very weak market, and imo this move down isn't close to over, SPY will move straight down below 4,000 in the next week or two, then perhaps form a right shoulder 5-10% higher in the 4,400 range. After that will be a deeper plunge that will skin permabulls alive, all she wrote, correction territory (>20% down), and then some. G fund, and patience, for me, until this set up changes. Not expecting much of a year.

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That certainly what it 'feels' like. Oct/21 was the last 'good' month. May go I-fund as per some articles I've read. Time will tell.
 
Nothing to talk about. Markets north and south of key technical levels; seems to me overpriced with inflation, worker and chip shortages, lingering supply disruptions, effect of Covid on leisure and physical workplaces and associated businesses, and so on. I will continue to wait in G fund for a better buy point.
 
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