amoeba's Account Talk

[ezmoney]

That's what I said many post back. The market doesn't even know what it is doing so all the charts and statistical data means nothing to this market. It may have worked well when the market was cooking but this market is far from being over and it would love for nothing more than to get you in for a really nice gainer then pull the rung out from under you. The market wants it's money back for all those nice years of profit. Be very cautious and believe nothing.

 

[Corepuncher]

what is with this F-fund share price? either match the bond market or tell me what Barclay's is doing? 1/15/09 was my buyin day on bonds, the AGG is up on 1/16/09, but the share price is down?

Anyhow, I'll keep an eye on this for any large swings either way.

Seems like nothing follows anything like it is supposed to anymore. It's all screwed up!

 

[amoeba]

what is with this F-fund share price? either match the bond market or tell me what Barclay's is doing? 1/15/09 was my buyin day on bonds, the AGG is up on 1/16/09, but the share price is down?

Anyhow, I'll keep an eye on this for any large swings either way.

 

[amoeba]

bahh humbug:

U-shaped intraday chart yesterday; no follow-thru on the CPI today. what happened?

There is the usual politicking going on over the stimulus; not that I think it will do a lick of good; but I was hoping some other dope might think so and buy equities in advance of MLK/Obama next wk.

But no, you are all too smart and bailed like me.

Kinda hard to make money when there aren't 2 consecutive up days. Give me a break, will ya?

Anyhow, I've been holding some F, which has had a buffering effect, and long term positive over the past month or so (kinda long for the cycle on this fund, which is concerning, as it can jump down 1-2% in a day at times); but it just plain doesn't look good.

Sheila Bair came on the tube this morning, again linking the TARP 2 in some way, to "do something about foreclosures";

Hey Sheila - this is CrocK-odile Dundee, and let me tell you how it works here in Outback America.

We hicks don't want your bailout - we like foreclosures - we didn't put any money down anyway; why would we give a hoot about re-working a $400,000 loan on a house that's worth $200,000; when we can live there for freefor 6-8 months during foreclosure proceedings, leave, and buy the same house 25 months later for $180,000 using the FHA. You gotta be kidding me.

Oh, that's right. If we re-work the loan, we can delay getting our butz booted for a few more months, and not pay that either. More free living. In fact 75% of us who took those reworked loans, bail within 6 months.

Yippee. What a great country. But no place for a Sheila.

 

[amoeba]

If asian opening is any indication, I'm 4/4 in putting the boogie on the market - every time I put money in those damn equity funds - the toilet gets flushed - one of these days I'll figure this out; until then it's an exercise in cutting losses.....

Is this time to revive the "where is the bottom" thread?

 

[amoeba]

Those of you who watch the tracker probably noticed my late yesterday IFT - change from 90G/10F to G-F-C-S-I of 78-16-1-2-3:

I know I added a message to my account talk saying that the last 3X I tried this, the market dropped like a lead duck the next day, so for anyone who bought in today - look out, the boogie may be on you....the boogie does not take prisoners either; so if you lose, I lose;

This 2-IFT limit continues to pose buy-in problems; bcz the days where I would add F are not the same days I would add CSI, but I have to..... Very limited powder.....

If I had alot more F, I would have more money, but be alot more nervous as well.

Will a dead cat bounce?

 

[TerpTrader]

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management expects the S&P 500 to end 2009 around 1250, which translates to about a 45% gain in the index, which would rank it among the best years for the index dating to 1930.

So 1 person is predicting a huge gain in the S&P...
I guess we latch onto what we want to hear eh?
I'm all in!!.....(not)

 

[Birchtree]

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management expects the S&P 500 to end 2009 around 1250, which translates to about a 45% gain in the index, which would rank it among the best years for the index dating to 1930.

 

[KevinD]

Just curious:

Is there anyone left out there who honestly believes the S&P could hit 4 figures this calender year? I mean, be serious people - 1,000 - in 2009; given the garbage can of bad debt, rising unemployment, dropping consumption, everyone taken to the cleaners/nothing to invest in market?

This is not a recession; its a total eclipse. The Obama honeymoon may be over before he takes office.

Does it really matter what level the market reaches?

I got lucky with last months jobs report "buy the bad news" pop and thought I'd try it again this month but I didn't have the guts to ride it out. I'm still trying to figure all this "market timing" stuff out.

Sure the trend is down and the near term (and far term) future looks bleak, but that don't mean you can't make a little money picking your spots and riding the waves.

Personally I think we're going to see new lows (<750) some time this year...you're guess is as good as mine.

 

[justbizness45]

This is not a recession; its a total eclipse. The Obama honeymoon may be over before he takes office.

It may be already. He is already backpedaling saying how hard it is going to be. His party is not publicly jumpiing behind him as strongly as I expected. That first week may be very interesting.

 

[amoeba]

Just curious:

Is there anyone left out there who honestly believes the S&P could hit 4 figures this calender year? I mean, be serious people - 1,000 - in 2009; given the garbage can of bad debt, rising unemployment, dropping consumption, everyone taken to the cleaners/nothing to invest in market?

This is not a recession; its a total eclipse. The Obama honeymoon may be over before he takes office.

 

[amoeba]

Got up early:

Orderly decline continues - no breaks before the noon cutoff;

So It looks to me like a whole bunch of someone is averaging out in advance of a retail sales ex-auto that most of us expect will miss lowered expectations on 1/14/09.

I just wish I had more F-fund; I'm trying to pick a dip in F to accumulate but it keeps rising - another +3% month for F? that's looking at 3 in a row.

I'm now leaning towards 870 as oversupported; mostly by the superoptimism in the ~$800B stimulus plan part V or whatever it is; if memory serves - the passage of the first of these (TARP part I) did NOT produce (much of) a market reaction.

So earnings season will continue.....what are people REALLY expecting? That's a tough one....I still see alot of ostriches out there, some of whom are Obama appointees who think that throwing money around after bad mortgages is better than getting people out of houses they can't afford (Sheila Bair).

Once the money is spent, it will take another 6 months to discover that the move didn't work; or less - as in the case of TARP. Then what?

Anyway, I'll be looking for a sharp in equties up to accumulate F, with a goal of somewhere around 40%, and sharp moves down to take a potshot at CSI to roll some dice short term - but right now we're too close to the 20 and 50 dma's to do that. Very flat dma's - could be a head fake.....

 

[justbizness45]

So let me get this straight, you never ever IFT'd into G fund when the market was going down, instead you bought a bunch more C.

And the website you posted indicates an S&P of 600 in 2009, and you'll buy more.

I have another idea for birch, and anyone else holding (what's left of) C,I, or S fund - dump it........dump it all.......dump it now.....; and here's my thinking:

- this latest run-up (whip de do, 900 and change) is the result of a premature honeymoon (ooooohhhh, there's some gnarly metaphors in there); basically people who are dreaming of more buyers when Obama actually does get in office; and, it's a consequence of rumors (leaks) that the stimulus package will include hefty tax cuts.

- big deal - so what. This does nothing to root causes of the recession, and is temporary. And it isn't passed. And we don't know what it is. Or whether it will work (not, imo).

- I will look to any equity bounce to add to my position in F.

- I will watch the reaction to tomorrow's employment report carefully, remember, there has been light volume recently, and the previous month's employment number turned into a "buy on bad news" scenario which was overbought for that reason (sold off later) - so tomorrow may actually be a peak even if there is a miss; we'll see if history repeats itself;

- Obama is on TV again - more "roll up sleeves"/"get this thing done" talk; but no details, and he's not president, yet. So what the face time is for I cannot guess, other than to buoy the market. I guess that can work for a time - but it will get old (is for me). Reading behind the lines, he sounds desperate to me, like he's expecting his plan - whatever it is or will be - not to work, and for us to be ready for it. Well thankyuverymuch!

I am (G and F).

Economic stimulus won't work unless people are spending money and buying on credit. That's what Ben & Paul and the Fed think will fix the problem. The "experts" predicted consumer credit spending would drop in Nov by 500 mil. Consumer credit spending dropped by almost 8 bil. That is alot of plastic staying in the wallet. I argee with Don Harrold, this is great news. I am in G waiting less than 850.

 

[amoeba]

The amoeba is slithering up the tracker quickly, from ~#120 yesterday - -to his previously occuppied #18 at the moment; and nsurf has also moved to his more familiar territory near the top.

F - fund, as measured by the agg and vbmfx, is moving near - but not beyond - its multi-year highs (a reflection of high bond prices of part of this fund); will be interesting to see how high it can go, especially if the selloff continues next week.

There has been a high expectation of an Obama-rally; whether this will be sold, instead of bought, into remains to be seen.

We will know shortly which.

In the near term, I'll be watching retail numbers and earnings for hints of what to do.

Boy - the double sell-off today, at the open, and then just before the close - I'm still non-plussed; does anyone know WTF that was all about?

 

[amoeba]

With the tracker back on line - this is the situation:

1. History repeating itself - lame job number meets lowered expectation, nobody really believes it considering the revision from the past month;

2. Lot of people buying the bad news; but will be executed near the close of business day (in an hour or so);

3. This will drive the market to near break even by today's close;

4. Market bounce unlikely prior to inauguration; too many people expecting it - go look at the tracker - not calling it "dumb money" but too much wading in on too little good news;

5. Smart money sells at any point above 900, or IFT's into F on the dips;

6. I may wade into equities short term in any oversold dip; but it's too orderly right now to expect that.

7. Obama on the tube again...what did he say? oh, that's right....nothing. just wanted us to feel good.

See ya next week - we'll see if there's monday morning bla's or not.

 

[amoeba]

I bought every two weeks all the way down and now will continue to buy every two weeks all the way back up. I know I picked up over 1800 C fund shares last year and that will help me regain my footing - dollar cost averaging is the redeemer.

http://safehaven.com/article-12235.htm

So let me get this straight, you never ever IFT'd into G fund when the market was going down, instead you bought a bunch more C.

And the website you posted indicates an S&P of 600 in 2009, and you'll buy more.

I have another idea for birch, and anyone else holding (what's left of) C,I, or S fund - dump it........dump it all.......dump it now.....; and here's my thinking:

- this latest run-up (whip de do, 900 and change) is the result of a premature honeymoon (ooooohhhh, there's some gnarly metaphors in there); basically people who are dreaming of more buyers when Obama actually does get in office; and, it's a consequence of rumors (leaks) that the stimulus package will include hefty tax cuts.

- big deal - so what. This does nothing to root causes of the recession, and is temporary. And it isn't passed. And we don't know what it is. Or whether it will work (not, imo).

- I will look to any equity bounce to add to my position in F.

- I will watch the reaction to tomorrow's employment report carefully, remember, there has been light volume recently, and the previous month's employment number turned into a "buy on bad news" scenario which was overbought for that reason (sold off later) - so tomorrow may actually be a peak even if there is a miss; we'll see if history repeats itself;

- Obama is on TV again - more "roll up sleeves"/"get this thing done" talk; but no details, and he's not president, yet. So what the face time is for I cannot guess, other than to buoy the market. I guess that can work for a time - but it will get old (is for me). Reading behind the lines, he sounds desperate to me, like he's expecting his plan - whatever it is or will be - not to work, and for us to be ready for it. Well thankyuverymuch!

I am (G and F).

 

[robo]

If you're waiting to see hard economic evidence of improvement the market will be up 50% before you get any positive hard evidence. That's how it works my friends. The back of the bear has been broken with the VIX heading back to 16. I'm really anticipating a huge move to the upside like a panic rally.

Birchtree,

The rally will come - that's for sure, but then another sell-off. It will be another tough year for buy and hold in my opinion in 2009. When the VIX gets back to 16 I will be looking to go short in all my brokerage accounts and my TSP money will be back in the G Fund....

Take care Big Bull!

 

[Birchtree]

I bought every two weeks all the way down and now will continue to buy every two weeks all the way back up. I know I picked up over 1800 C fund shares last year and that will help me regain my footing - dollar cost averaging is the redeemer.

http://safehaven.com/article-12235.htm

 

[amoeba]

If you're waiting to see hard economic evidence of improvement the market will be up 50% before you get any positive hard evidence. That's how it works my friends. I don't believe long is wrong and as a result I'm holding my positions and tweaking my base. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. The back of the bear has been broken with the VIX heading back to 16. I'm hoping we have the biggest short term percentage rally from the Nov. 21st bottom since 1932-1933. If you are satisfied to sit comfortably in the G fund your account will be punished like mine was on the way down. My asset base is intact and now comes the payback because I made the painful decision to buy into the pullback and I'm now being appropriately rewarded. I'm really anticipating a huge move to the upside like a panic rally.

Ummm. In the TSP, you have to be out to buy in. When were you ever out of the market? Looks to me like you rode it down from the top all in one of the equity funds, at least for the last year. So as far as I'm concerned, you need to top 1500 to make a dime.

As far as I'm concerned what happened on a particular November 21 or whatever is irrelevant; there's no sense looking at any trend line shorter than the 50 dma. In this regard, current share prices on spyders are roughly 6% higher than the 50 dma, and that's entirely within the last 5 trading days, and on half the normal volume. The 50 dma didn't even show an inflection till today.

It's not a rally....it's light volume fluctuation....I don't buy it, and don't intend to. Tomorrow is another day, which will include an employment report.

 

[Birchtree]

If you're waiting to see hard economic evidence of improvement the market will be up 50% before you get any positive hard evidence. That's how it works my friends. I don't believe long is wrong and as a result I'm holding my positions and tweaking my base. The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. The back of the bear has been broken with the VIX heading back to 16. I'm hoping we have the biggest short term percentage rally from the Nov. 21st bottom since 1932-1933. If you are satisfied to sit comfortably in the G fund your account will be punished like mine was on the way down. My asset base is intact and now comes the payback because I made the painful decision to buy into the pullback and I'm now being appropriately rewarded. I'm really anticipating a huge move to the upside like a panic rally.