amoeba's Account Talk

[uscfanhawaii]

Alright enough Covid talk...you're all gonna get it way before any vaccine, if there ever is one, gets approved, so accept that, wear a mask correctly until then, and deal with it. Get on with your lives. I'm all in, yall can sit in your bunkers in G fund forever...I'm not. Yee Ha!

I LIKE your enthusiasm!!

 

[amoeba]

I LIKE your enthusiasm!!

overweight I fund..I did today...China beat Covid in 6 weeks with masks and nightsticks (if you didn't wear it correctly). I will be laughing my ash off when they start that here. I'm tired of slackers preparing food with their masks pulled down. Screw your freedom of choice to infect others.

 

[amoeba]

just made a mess of IFTs again with that God d_m intraday reversal last Friday....dropped to 50% equities in TSP....looked schmart, then not, as it tanked off a peak. I even bought AMZN at neutral and -2%, and it has kept falling since. I have learned to diversify...the hard way.

 

[amoeba]

Not much new to post about....markets hit a wall and turned south hard....after 3 days of such selling, futures appear, premarket 9/9/20, to be pointing to a positive open...the question is whether this is the rebuy point or deadcat b4 the casino burns down. Can't tell yet.

 

[amoeba]

Bad month....made a timely IFT....then got greedy and turned 2.5% gain into 1.5% loss in a few days...won't be doing that again...2 consecutive days of Covid new cases in the mid 30K after several in the high 40s. I may make a very early October IFT if a third, lower, Covid count AND a market either sideways or at worst not gapped down. It will be a flyer if I try it.

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[amoeba]

Covid new cases back above 40K, PPP expires in spite of announced layoffs in major airlines/others, debate chaos, and the market moves up? I suspect bullish sentiment has increased, but for the life of me, I can't say why; the AAII comes out tomorrow; BOL Friday. Not pretty.

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[amoeba]

Covid new cases last 2 days +52K, spreading like wildfire in midcontinent, as new/continuing claims, permanent, job losses rise unabated.... markets continue rise on stimulus hopes. If I was looking only at business activity, I would call this the worst economy in my 65 year lifetime. And not getting better. After 6+ months, lots of unmasked, or improperly masked people in convenience stores, gatherings, elsewhere, inside and out, including the White House lawn. The disease remains highly contagious, substantially untreatable...POTUS' experience with unapproved medications shows nothing...other than luck. I have a feeling this state of affairs will continue without improvement unless or until markets contract to the point of requiring some enforceable, effective full compliance with masking (+ another lockdown), or the Pandemic runs its course to herd immunity -a couple more years.

 

[kb9nvh]

Fortunately everyone who gets this lives except the over 75 crowd who die at a 3% rate last I looked. Masks are no panacea but everyone on the white house lawn had one on it appeared. The economy will struggle as the effects of the lock downs compete with covid for deaths. Hydroxychloroquine early has been shown to be an effective treatment. Getting it early is the key as shown by the 120 with 70 peer reviewed studies.

 

[amoeba]

65K new Covid cases 10/15, can't even find today's data...but the market dropped hard in the last 45 minutes, including 2% in the last 90 seconds for AMZN. Not the largest decline, but a late one. Bull flag? Maybe, but I say not. Especially if this disease continues to spike over the weekend.

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[amoeba]

90, then 99K new Covid cases, yesterday. I'm not seeing obvious preventative measures, like temperature checks, anywhere except hospitals....so I'm supposed to fly cross country this morning on a packed plane with only mask protection...which we know from hospital worker cases is far from perfect.

Maybe we can have a Covid peak new case count contest? Or a next lockdown day contest?

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[amoeba]

sharp drop last 2 days in new Covid cases...that 99 was followed by an 84 then 74K. Although noisy, a couple more days down and a settled election, entirely possible , and you be looking at 3+% up days. No missing out! I plan to IFT into equities early this month....get 5% by Veterans Day, and go home.

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[amoeba]

sharp drop last 2 days in new Covid cases...that 99 was followed by an 84 then 74K. Although noisy, a couple more days down and a settled election, entirely possible , and you be looking at 3+% up days. No missing out! I plan to IFT into equities early this month....get 5% by Veterans Day, and go home.

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I missed my chance, in part due to changes in the TSP.gov website requiring creation of a user name on the day I was going to IFT last week, and ended up putting it off till Friday....another leg up Monday made me wait till today to go all in....thinking I was going to catch a dip (hardly any). 100% equities for me, overweighting I fund.

If this overblown vaccine effectiveness news sustained the rally this far, then next week's release of vaccine safety data of same next week could churn the market higher. Factors to the downside are several, the most prominent being a wave of Covid cases, hospitalizations, and likely deaths to follow in the next week, as well as small business closures (indoor dining closure announced again in CA, today, for example); as well as no stimulus; no relief for airlines (AAL issued new stock today); consequential job losses (not gains) in the coming weeks, etc.

Certain sectors are rising...homebuilding, materials, construction generally, associated equipment, and financials, to name a few; while some majors retreat in the large cap/tech arena (AMZN, ADBE, AMD, many more).

If there's a dip, I think it will follow the vaccine euphoria, which will sustain for a bit here with news, and maybe even an EUA for health care workers, since hospitals have high case incidences. Which isn't most of us. I think a vaccine for the masses, if there is one, is still year(s) away.

 

[amoeba]

Will traders believe the AH vaccine hype enough to at least hold as Covid cases rise? Job #s improving, POTUS' no lockdown under his watch assertion, would add market support. I remain all in.

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[amoeba]

I anticipate: 1. despite surges in new Covid cases, lockdowns will be limited and ineffective, given that transmission is largely in private indoor gathering and, more importantly, 2. these new cases will plateau soon, because not everyone is stupid enough to have an unmasked party.

Airlines appear to be adding back flights and filling them with passengers, but a long way to go....doing no worse financially due to layoffs.

Vaccine? Meh....I kinda doubt it is the answer...I'm leaning towards accepting the normal cycle of pandemics, maybe a little shorter for this one, and less deaths due to modern medicine....another year or so to go. Could be shorter but that would presume a sudden common sense overwhelming the ignorant into wearing masks and foregoing private fatherings for 2-4 weeks.

Not gonna happen.

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[nasa1974]

I anticipate: 1. despite surges in new Covid cases, lockdowns will be limited and ineffective, given that transmission is largely in private indoor gathering and, more importantly, 2. these new cases will plateau soon, because not everyone is stupid enough to have an unmasked party.

Airlines appear to be adding back flights and filling them with passengers, but a long way to go....doing no worse financially due to layoffs.

Vaccine? Meh....I kinda doubt it is the answer...I'm leaning towards accepting the normal cycle of pandemics, maybe a little shorter for this one, and less deaths due to modern medicine....another year or so to go. Could be shorter but that would presume a sudden common sense overwhelming the ignorant into wearing masks and foregoing private fatherings for 2-4 weeks.

Not gonna happen.

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So my question to #1; yes they are saying that it appears that the private gatherings are contributing to the increased COVID numbers. Here is my question, how is it getting into the private gatherings? Somebody within the group is picking it up from somewhere; bars, restaurants, gyms, grocery stores, house of worship? It doesn't just show up and knocks on the door.
#2 Yes, there are enough stupid people that don't wear masks to parties, when out shopping and social gatherings.

 

[amoeba]

So my question to #1; yes they are saying that it appears that the private gatherings are contributing to the increased COVID numbers. Here is my question, how is it getting into the private gatherings? Somebody within the group is picking it up from somewhere; bars, restaurants, gyms, grocery stores, house of worship? It doesn't just show up and knocks on the door.
#2 Yes, there are enough stupid people that don't wear masks to parties, when out shopping and social gatherings.

Answer to question on #1: They got it at another private, unmasked, gathering (not a bar, restaurant, gym, grocery store, or house of worship). They can't really get into almost any store without a mask (at least in California, and we still have lots of cases, exception being liquor/convenience stores - which don't follow rules; our bars/gyms/restaurants are now closed, again)

I think regarding #2, I see the outcome being the stupid reaching herd immunity...assuming reinfection is limited.

 

[amoeba]

Soooo:

Since the market has departed from the inverse relation between new Covid cases and index price, what's my next theory? Are you ready? Here it is:

Amoeba's "it's not so bad after all" theory.

-people are tired of sitting around, spending less, so instead they get together indoors, without masks with their gangs....and spread Covid further than if not locked down.

-money not spent by the affluent due to Covid (more houses, boats, vacations, charities) - is making it's way into the market.

-Covid-resistant plays (e.g., semiconductors, as if Covid has any effect on cell phone sales, it would be a positive one; Biden plays to the extent not ridiculous - solar, lithium (e.g., HASI, ALB, but not TSLA) shift into a higher gear; anything that can be done outside construction wise (e.g., AA, MT, URI, homebuilding/renovation).

-anticipatory plays to come next (e.g., travel, leisure, airlines).

-laggards will continue to lag until someone does something about it (e.g., REIT/mREITs)

It's not so bad, there's a bull market somewhere....usually (not including March 2020). Be careful.

 

[amoeba]

Unfortunately, covid went out of control with 187K new cases , 1,900 deaths, today, rampant infection due to unmasked gatherings, and absent guidance from any State to educate or force compliance. I fully expect another doubling of daily cases and deaths. This has nothing to do with Trump or politics.
Stimulus isn't coming until January.

If this continues as just described, I see 3,000 SPY being challenged before EOY.

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[nnuut]

We should be discussing the Market and our TSP. We can argue forever and not solve a thing, so why don't we cool it and discus the MARKETS!!!!!! We are trying to stop this kind of arguments so we can do better in the markets. If this continues we poor MODS will take actions, savvy?

 

[amoeba]

I will watch from the sidelines, sensing the market sentiment balance swaying bearish with the promising initial Covid vaccine data being more offset by the rising deaths/cases....next week is normally light volume, but with travel and business abated by various Covid measures, homebound traders may question the pace of actual recovery, which depends on a perfect sequence of events....the public taking the vaccine, the vaccine actually being effective in non trial circumstances, the permanent job losses being replaced by not yet defined alternatives, and then...in the interim...survival of travel and leisure industries...which could require an earlier and larger stimulus. This might all happen timely, or it might not. Personally, I believe the calendar year market high (and low) have been put in.

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