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- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
rangerray
Well-known member
Although I got today wrong, I agree with you. I’m staying with F a little longer. The gains there have outweighed the losses so far.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk ForumsWhat was that?!
POTUS addresses Nation telling us no Euro travel here, wash our hands, and throw us some bread crumb payroll tax suspension. If Congress agrees. Not gonna help. If you haven't sold, Thursday is likely to be better than Friday or Monday. Jeepers. Could this get worse? You betcha. The disease is in a very early stage of contagion. Seeya in the 2600s. Tomorrow. 2500s next week.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hi Amoeba, That 2700 area on SPX looks like a longtime support level. See the lows in October and November 2018, plus temporary lull in late January 2019, that hit around 2625. Plus a couple of uptrend price pauses in November near 2700 , plus a few more support tests in February, March and May 2019 (2728.81)---don't have drawn line for this but it falls right between the two marked pink lines..right at 2728.81..
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1965Vintage
Member
You may want to just glance at the weekly for DJIA and the S&P, especially if futures turn to reality. There's decent support where you say, but if it cracks we could be heading back to 2016 (the year) support levels. A lot of earnings still to be reported but the positive imo will be wiped out with the next couple quarterly outlooks. Seems the bear is in the house but the bulls will be scooping up these discounts. Measure your risk for sure. I just put 5% each C S & I Tuesday COB, the rest is in G. I feel comfortable letting that ride the wave until we prove a bottom.
That's just my gut talking not my brain. My brain wants to see a decent bounce!!!
Good luck out there! Really do appreciate everyone's perspectives.Since I was right on the $ in my prediction of this collapse, well maybe 1 day off...limit down futures, circuit breaker at the open...let's try to predict what's next. RU ready? Amoeba speaks:
Total confusion on a global scale. Another circuit breaker 7% today, and then a third a fourth tomorrow - that's right - 27% down the tubes in two business days.
The virus is everywhere. The travel ban hurts. USA has no discipline to socially isolate.
All of this will actually pass relatively soon, but not immediately. About a year.Well shoot me...futures flipped positive with media focus on massive FED liquidity and sharp reduction in new corona cases in China, suggesting the contagion cycle is short and contained there. But there is still an oil price and production war. Personally, I did buy some equities privately, ADBE which reported a beats AH today, and HOV, which lost 60% the last 2 days. A Friday bounce of sorts? Will it last the full session? Time will tell.
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James48843
Well-known member
Don’t bank on anything. Remember, today is now Friday the 13th.
Anything can happen!
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk ForumsHysteria is really getting high over this weekend, additional States reporting first cases via forein National (Alaska), food service and leisure screeching to a halt, no one anywhere except grocery and drug stores...hoarding out of control. This appears to beyond anyone's intervention...unless it's to suspend the world fiscal system for the 2 weeks it will take for new case#'s to peak. There is potential WWIII level FUBAR. I remain out.
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FAAM
Active member
Hope ya get a full belly off your nibble; still very volatile, so if you get a big UP-day & time the bale then, you may get something positive. I was thinking of a little bite, tho I think too much risk still, havent' hit bottom yet; FED has used its biggest shot, Schools, bars, most everything's just now shutting down so the economic impacts aren't really known nor digested yet I think. Staying safe in 100% G now after selling my 26% F on Friday. My wife was buy-n-hold L2030 until about 2-weeks ago when I convinced her to go to 100% G - glad for that. Be nimble Ameoba!Well, there are a few others I suspect that waded deeper, but if I can nick a few tenths of a percent off my losses, which aren't too bad, I'll feel better. It's really a shame...the political hysteria over this. Yes, there is a new virus, it is contagious, has a higher complication and death rate than prior incidences. But over and done with in 2 months or less. The economic damage, in this case, could be larger and longer lasting. Or perhaps not so much. The next few weeks will be telling.
Sent from my SM-J320P using TapatalkI'm out again....100% G....I don't like the way the indices are fluctuating and the lag of the S-fund; I'm not even sure they will hold much of the 3-4% morning gains by the close. I'm not complaining if they do; a 5% gain would push me to almost break even for the month.
I think the high in the SPY for the day has already been put in at 2,500....law of round numbers.....do I hear 2,600 today? Would be nice, but I don't think so.For those of us who waffled on an IFT....it's interesting that the SPY at noon today, almost exactly matches yesterday (~2,500), after which it fell for the remainder of the day....POTUS/Mnuchin have been speaking for about 30 minutes, and there was some buying in advance and through the speech, nothing really new here, it remains to be seen how this will be digested by traders. Slowing drift up, hasn't quite matched yesterday's intraday high, but the day is not over. At least not rolling over. Yet.
History repeats itself, one day later, 2,560 matched both days, rolling over in the afternoon both days.Take no prisoners 3/18/20, market indices shot on sight and thrown in a ditch to rot and fester, seizing back almost everything from Tuesday; nothing POTUS says changed anything; limit down futures; then a circuit breaker; then it dropped further....reclaiming a pittance at the close. As I write this; premarket futures are closing in on limit down for tomorrow, but I think there will be some beaten sectors gapping up 20% or more. For example, REITs, which were subject to some very large declines today and then large, late buys near the close, by the company officers.
The only promising news will come in the form of viral case numbers, or scientific breakthroughs; neither of which is going to happen for several weeks if not more. Until then, expect absolute carnage. I have at least $50K in the market (it was $70K, a month ago) and only because I swore allegiance to the financial advisor who manages it and is selling nothing. The rest of it is in G fund. My PIP (1 year return) is -0.11%...that would have been too embarrassing to disclose a month ago.
Incidentally, this USA shelter in place plan to contain the virus here is not the plan that worked for our comrades in China. It is a plan developed after the virus infected 4,000+ (known cases) across the Nation in numerous states and cities. It may work. It may not. I will be very surprised if the SPY can hold 2,000 through March, or even this Friday. And I don't think that will be the bottom either. The scientific data will be more of a factor than anything else.Similar threads
