amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.

Kinda depends on your time horizon.

A 4.5% decline is worth accepting when you have the horizon to attain the normal 10% return over longer periods of time. If you need the assets in 5 years you really cannot survive a 10% decline - or, maybe even a 5% drop. On the other hand, if you have 10 years till retirement it is wiser to accept short term 5% declines so that you can attain the average 10% increase. Amoeba, if you are nearing retirement you have already made your decision. If you have time till retirement than I would recommend buying some sticky pants.

Anyway, the reason for being here at TSPTalk is to limit the 10% - 15% drops. If you limit those to 4% - 7% (which is possible with the support this site provides) you will be very well off in retirement.

However, not accepting short term market losses means that you will get Social Security returns. If you continuously hang around a 3% - 5% return you will basically get a second Social Security check in retirement. That barely clears inflation. So, you end up with a better brand of Alpo for your retirement dining pleasure. Time is money. If you waste your time you waste opportunity and you waste your money.

 

[amoeba]

Big aaii move to 40% bulls reported this morning; highest in many months. I doubt it can go higher absent an event. But I'm not seeing the catalyst to go lower. Classic contrarian sell signal but these are not normal times....I see q1, q2 earnings to contract....no idea beyond that. I've been out for awhile....looking for a reason to go back into equities.

 

[amoeba]

I am shorting this market as of last Friday....may add to that position today.

 

[Whipsaw]

Shorting... meaning F fund? Or something other than TSP?

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba, the C-Fund is up 25.49% this year as is currently holding as #20 on the AutoTracker.

Think of it this way, the market would have to drop 16% to get to normal.


That is getting close to requiring a Bear Market to get back to an Average Growth Market.

It will drop at some point, but why not let it drop 7% before bailing out? Why give up 21% of this years gain?. If you are sitting at a 4% YTD gain and the market dumps 8% in a single day than you are -4%. Had you been in the C Fund you would be at +17.5% - still and EXEPTIONAL year. Playing games with little moves is a dangerous game.

 

[amoeba]

Shorting... meaning F fund? Or something other than TSP?

Something other than TSP...it stopped out at a 2% loss on day 1 and hasn't reversed.

 

[Boghie]

Something other than TSP...it stopped out at a 2% loss on day 1 and hasn't reversed.

I'm confused, Amoeba...

A short trade will not stop loss. It just loses and loses more. A short can fall to 0 leaving you responsible for the entire cost of the equity/ETF on call date.

Did you set a trigger to buy the stock/ETF if it went away from you more than 2%? That is actually a pretty nice strat... Usually, shorts are very dangerous. Limiting the danger is a nice move. Maybe covered with an Option in the other direction?

 

[amoeba]

ETFs, Boghie. Anyhow....I am all in right now on TSP...not convinced of any substantial risks. This week is the traditional easiest free money seasonal play of year, except for last year, of course.

 

[amoeba]

Setup for December looking good, aaii bulls backed off from the 40s to low 30s, suggesting there's yet more $ poised to move in. I think that will be this week....currently all in and looking out for potential bumps in the road. With online retail sales expected to hit records, the path ahead seems smooth at the moment.

 

[Boghie]

ETFs, Boghie. Anyhow....I am all in right now on TSP...not convinced of any substantial risks. This week is the traditional easiest free money seasonal play of year, except for last year, of course.

Yeah, last year kinda went south around this time. Ugh...

Today doesn't look great either. However, the market often overreacts to the Tweeter in Chief ;damnit

 

[amoeba]

Yeah, last year kinda went south around this time. Ugh...

Today doesn't look great either. However, the market often overreacts to the Tweeter in Chief ;damnit

Stuck in equities today....obviously...I made the wrong call here....will watch nearer to IFT deadline to see if I will bail on this huge loss for me, but no deal at all or 12/15 excise tariffs as scheduled will crush equities much more..more important than knowing when to walk away, is to know when to run.

 

[amoeba]

Stuck in equities today....obviously...I made the wrong call here....will watch nearer to IFT deadline to see if I will bail on this huge loss for me, but no deal at all or 12/15 excise tariffs as scheduled will crush equities much more..more important than knowing when to walk away, is to know when to run.

It smarts, but I bailed completely...after 7 weeks of posturing for a deal; there clearly isn't one yet....when this rise (which I missed most of) started, there were a few days of similar drops around early October close to 2,880 SPY, and I thought then it was the beginning of a true correction, but then the agreement for a phase I deal (not on paper) and up she goes....then I put money in...and down she goes....consolation is only in that if I don't make any more dumb moves this year, I will beat my return of last year of 0.02% by over a hundred times. And I will have beaten the G fund. Oh boy. I should celebrate with a bottle of water.

 

[Boghie]

China needs the deal more than we do...

At this very second Nike is looking to have their shoes glued together in Mozambique (or somewhere). China will kowtow soon enough. Or not, resulting in our great capitalist system migrating production somewhere else. The state does not run everything here. The private sector is not in some State run Bureaucratic 5-year plan. They can move. And, they can move quickly.

So, for a few more months your Nikes will cost 0.12 more per shoe or something. Don't worry about it.

 

[amoeba]

It ain't quite like that....China has a combination of worker and infrastructure base like no other. Yes, they need us, but we, and the rest of the world, need them too.

 

[amoeba]

Well, anyone who shorted the market since I last posted made out with about a penny a share today...but I think now that SPY has crested 3,300...it's ready for what? You think I'm going to say correction?....well, I'm not. I think it's up for another 6% gain. And I mean next month. The main cause of the market topping out will be the inevitable, Public tarring and feathering of Pelosi, Shumer, and the entire Democratic party that shall come with the laughing stock party-line vote against removal of POTUS for huh? What?

Now, if the Country were to come up with a candidate that Don can't whup with his eyes closed this November, then his tax plan, market confidence, and lots of other economic benefits, and the market, and our TSP equity funds, would be at risk. Not likely at the moment with the motley mix of retread has beens, liberal heart patients, and/or annoying women that won't shake hands with men.

God bless America.

 

[Mcqlives]

Not that I disagree with anything you said...but that may be the most politicized market analysis of the week!

 

[amoeba]

Holy cow. I went all in Thursday and got shmeared on day one. Second day in market the last 4 months, the first being early last December. Both >1% losses in a heartbeat. I bailed last time, and the market went up 3% till now. Just getting killed. As to risk factors, I see three. The 1st already mentioned is the near term impeachment resolution to be voted on next Wednesday; that's a plus but may be baked in. The 2nd is Corona virus which I believe is way overblown...this is NOT another SARS or MERS in contagion or mortality. But it is new and nothing is known for sure. The 3rd is longer term topping out, for which the 2nd could act as a catalyst to produce a 10% or more correction in days-weeks instead of a rebound. In any case, I'm smarting bad and early in the year. AAII most bearish since early October, which is a buy signal, which came out Thursday when I bought. Nothings perfect, least of all me and my TSP management.

 

[amoeba]

Surprise neutral aaii reading Thursday, I entered an IFT to G for that day earlier, thinking for sure it would switch to 40%+ bulls, a strong sell. It didn't. And jobs # was strong. I was wrong, but avoided Friday's modest pullback. Anything is possible now next week.

 

[kb9nvh]

I'm thinking of stepping out to G to see if the market can choose a direction. With two moves I can get back in when I want and still run to safety later if so desired later... Thinking.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[Boghie]

'The Trend is your Friend!!!'

Guessing ups and downs on 1% moves is not a good play. You are out of the market when the market is behaving normally. For example, you are out of the market today. And, equities normally grow by 8% - 12% per year. Have you made those gains on average?

I allow my holding to crash by 7% before I wake from my slumber. And, anyway, my account is kinda conservative with only 64% being in equities. I can have that allocation because I accepted that the market may collapse by 7% in a shortish timeframe. If I get crushed by a 7% decline I will probably move to about a 55% holding in equities.

Sleeping well knowing that my retirement is not dependent on tomorrows politicians honoring promises made by todays politicians. Counting on some future failed lawyer to honor a promise made by someone today is never a good thing. That is our pension...

Our TSP holdings (other than the G Fund) ARE in Gore's Lock Box. Tomorrows fine, upstanding politicians can only indirectly grab those assets (increase taxes, fees, and things like that). Such moves are slow and can be adjusted against. Me like:smile: