amoeba's Account Talk

Back in CSI, 90%, as of COB 2/14. Election on cruise control, Don leading all battleground states against any candidate. Ergo, no cap gain or corporate tax change. Will look for nail in coffin news, but its become a foregone conclusion so early that traders are celebrating now. Foot in mouth squabbling amongst the candidates make this a laugher.

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Well...I cashed in on an earnings day bet on ALB, which barely missed EPS and gained 10% anyways. I'm in equities in TSP and not making much headway this week. Aaii came in unchanged with a 2nd consecutive reading of 40%+ bulls, which is bearish, but maybe not because the 2 readings are so similar. As with the last couple Thursday evenings, sentiment has become again bearish towards Friday due to coronavirus concerns. Various central banks, but not ours, could react with stimulus. A mixed bag. I'm neutral, may go to G for the rest of the month. Undecided.

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Well...I cashed in on an earnings day bet on ALB, which barely missed EPS and gained 10% anyways. I'm in equities in TSP and not making much headway this week. Aaii came in unchanged with a 2nd consecutive reading of 40%+ bulls, which is bearish, but maybe not because the 2 readings are so similar. As with the last couple Thursday evenings, sentiment has become again bearish towards Friday due to coronavirus concerns. Various central banks, but not ours, could react with stimulus. A mixed bag. I'm neutral, may go to G for the rest of the month. Undecided.

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Should have listened to myself. Didn't. Reduced from 90 to 55% equities Friday, then 35 and finally 2%, Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The result is this ongoing bloodletting not only zero'd me out, but put me in the red for the year. I stand by my earlier post that corona virus will NOT have a sustained economic effect. It isn't as virulent, or contagious, as MERS, SARS, or even the flu. It will be fully contained in 3-6 months, and new cases will taper in 9-12 months. That's normal. What's not normal is the market's schitzo reaction, droppinga day, going higher the next Monday (2 weeks ago), then, this past week, dropping on Friday, and the market panics the following Monday. Large volume last 2 days....but not washout level (e.g. 100-240 M SPY, vs high of 300-600 M during recent correction bottoms). So, if there's a deadcat up day in the near future, I'm cashing out...if no deadcat...well, some stops will come into play over the next 5% down.
 
I didn't read much about any previous outbreaks that you mention, MERS, SARS, etc. I read a report from a bank in Japan that reported a 42% drop in coal consumption in Chinese factories that the Japanese bank tracked. To me, that would indicate a pretty significant hit to the world's economy. A temporary hit, but a hit that is going to be noticed/felt everywhere.

Should have listened to myself. Didn't. Reduced from 90 to 55% equities Friday, then 35 and finally 2%, Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The result is this ongoing bloodletting not only zero'd me out, but put me in the red for the year. I stand by my earlier post that corona virus will NOT have a sustained economic effect. It isn't as virulent, or contagious, as MERS, SARS, or even the flu. It will be fully contained in 3-6 months, and new cases will taper in 9-12 months. That's normal. What's not normal is the market's schitzo reaction, droppinga day, going higher the next Monday (2 weeks ago), then, this past week, dropping on Friday, and the market panics the following Monday. Large volume last 2 days....but not washout level (e.g. 100-240 M SPY, vs high of 300-600 M during recent correction bottoms). So, if there's a deadcat up day in the near future, I'm cashing out...if no deadcat...well, some stops will come into play over the next 5% down.
 
This unusually fast move, unbroken by a single green day, is finally attaining enough volume to perhaps attract some buyers. Aaii came in at 30% bulls, down from the prior 2 weeks in the 40s, but not strongly negative. This mismatch between sentiment and the depth of the correction is concerning. An up day should come soon, but I'm unconvinced a bottom has been put in.

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Skru this..I'm not buying...I call the bottom somewhere around the 52 week low in SPY, 2,720. I'll stay parked in G and F until then, likely later March or April.

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Not buying today either. Bear trap. Sucker's rally. No thank you. Go recapture the 50 EMA and I'll think about it.
 
Aaii bulls AND bears increase to 40%, while neutrals drop to super low 20. Need to wait another week minimum to see direction on sentiment and markets. Too risky still.

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50% in the market:(
50% out of the market:smile:

Kinda bored. Don't have to buy and don't have to sell. Snoozing this out.
 
I just want to know if there's a single reader who bought at the slight turn today at 1040AM PST. It just seems so foolhardy to try to time this; even though some of the inverse volatility derivative plays (e.g., TVIX), have tripled. This is going lower; much lower; whether or not volatility settles.
 
And, BTW, nobody but nobody, will vote for old Joe Biden. It may seem like a political statement, which it is, but the relevance here is that this weak candidate propped up the market (or did, when old Joe dominated super Tuesday, paving the way for re-coronation of the Don come November). That didn't last the week, apparently. So, preservation of capital gain taxes as they are...isn't enough. The markets will continue South for the foreseeable future.
 
I just want to know if there's a single reader who bought at the slight turn today at 1040AM PST. It just seems so foolhardy to try to time this; even though some of the inverse volatility derivative plays (e.g., TVIX), have tripled. This is going lower; much lower; whether or not volatility settles.

I moved more into equities (C/S/I) COB on 2020/02/24 - just in time for the large downward moves. Nice move Sparky:laugh:

Even a dude like me who has rather sticky pants had to bail on 2020/02/28 - just to watch a 5% correction of the correction on the first trading day of my new crappy conservative allocation. Nice move Sparky:laugh:

Not moving a dime. Sleeping well.
 
And, BTW, nobody but nobody, will vote for old Joe Biden. It may seem like a political statement, which it is, but the relevance here is that this weak candidate propped up the market (or did, when old Joe dominated super Tuesday, paving the way for re-coronation of the Don come November). That didn't last the week, apparently. So, preservation of capital gain taxes as they are...isn't enough. The markets will continue South for the foreseeable future.

Smart money will eat the dumb money pretty quickly.
 
Skru this..I'm not buying...I call the bottom somewhere around the 52 week low in SPY, 2,720. I'll stay parked in G and F until then, likely later March or April.

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This pessimism is looking wildly optimistic, just a few days later. Oh the humanity! Each day, I manage to lose a couple hundred on silly, knife-catching moves....haven't sold for a nickel profit in weeks.
 
I see nothing..no vision..today. Until there is some intraday movement, up or down, I am not seeing any more than a crap shoot. A high risk one. You don't have to go very far back to reaize that a one day deadcat bounce, or even 4 days of chop, does not constitute a bottom. Be careful. I am.

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Warning! Early Intraday Fade says the BIG ONE may be coming!

I see nothing..no vision..today. Until there is some intraday movement, up or down, I am not seeing any more than a crap shoot. A high risk one. You don't have to go very far back to reaize that a one day deadcat bounce, or even 4 days of chop, does not constitute a bottom. Be careful. I am.

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There she is....a stiff cold wind, taking this wimpy, half-hearted, opening down in an early fade. If this goes negative by the close then, I predict, tomorrow, March 11, 2020, will be the beginning of the end. I mean monster volume, 700M SPY, trillion shares overall, throw the babies out the window, loss of bowel control, selling. Do you have two IFTs still? I do. Are you in G fund? I am.

If you aren't, well, the IFT deadline comes up in an hour. It will be interesting to see if anyone else fears what I do.
 
Re: Warning! Early Intraday Fade says the BIG ONE may be coming!

There she is....a stiff cold wind, taking this wimpy, half-hearted, opening down in an early fade. If this goes negative by the close then, I predict, tomorrow, March 11, 2020, will be the beginning of the end. I mean monster volume, 700M SPY, trillion shares overall, throw the babies out the window, loss of bowel control, selling. Do you have two IFTs still? I do. Are you in G fund? I am.

If you aren't, well, the IFT deadline comes up in an hour. It will be interesting to see if anyone else fears what I do.


Small bite 5% C S & I. 85% G from 100% G.

See how she goes. Even with my thinking that the S&P still has A LONG way to a solid bottom.
 
Well...I just want to be polite and wave bubbye to your $. And mine. I have 1% each in S and C fund. That was enough to turn me negative yesterday. Today is not over...in order to pull the plug on this bull market for sure and forever, it needs to close negative today, on this reversal. There could be several changes in direction from here.
 
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