amoeba's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

I read some traders expect the FED to hold on hiking rates in 2019 but will modify QE in May from 30B down to to 15B to 0 in September. That sounds like a shock to the system. Thought that was an interesting discussion. The market is BULL right now and the folks I'm watch are engaging in irrational exuberance. My thinking it that resistance is at roughly 2880. The market will get there, likely with some ups and downs along the way. Then we'll see...

 

[amoeba]

What a terrible ADP report, if the BOL report confirms, look out below.

 

[Boghie]

I panicked on March 23rd and did nothing.

Now, my account is +13%. Oh, the humanity! I can't handle this...


On a more serious note, I will probably back out to more G/F later this month. Go away in May you know. Gotta beat all the other slugs Goin' Away in May.
But, I might panic again and do nothing. Oh those gains. Any more of them and I'll have to retire early.
Some CongressCritters want the raw Mueller Report for the goodies in it.
Maybe the Chinese real estate market will be flat.
Maybe UK will finally Brexit.
Look out below!

 

[Boghie]

Should I get out

 

[Boxholder]

Run, Boghie, Run! Run like the wind!

Should I get out

 

[Boghie]

I ran around in a circle.
Didn't go anywhere.
Didn't do nuthin.

Still holding.
Just under a 15% gain YtoD.
Must be my amazing no trading system.
Get bullish - do nuthin'. Get Amoebish - do nuthin'

Honestly though, it might be time to take the winnins' back home. Summer is usually kinda bad and/or kinda swingy. It swings around and does nuthin' - like my trading system:laugh:. But, why should I accept the risk for a likely gain of nuthin'. So, maybe take the 2030 Captain of the Yacht salary money off the table. I consider that Captain a retirement necessity now!!!

 

[amoeba]

Thumping continues....very well telegraphed in the news...so I'm not hurting too bad...gotta be careful, though....one big down day does not necessarily make a bottom, although sometimes the 50EMA serves as an attractor of deadcats once initially breached. We'll see.

 

[blueroadster]

So how much were you in equities today? Were you still 50C 50S?

 

[amoeba]

Nope. Sold May 2. Been in G since.

 

[amoeba]

So so close....didn't recapture 50 EMA in SPY, and rolled over in last 30 min. More downside room IMO. Wake me up at the 200 EMA.

 

[Boghie]

I couldn't handle the 3.5% crash for this month.

It felt just like 2007/8 - or maybe even the Great Depression.

Just think, if the market (defined for my scholastic purposes and for the learned purposes of this esteemed study as the S&P500 and it's earlier variants) loses another 86% of it's valuation than we are just like The Great Depression!!!

Look out below

 

[Mcqlives]

Boghie...If Birch was around his reply to that post would take up a full page...or he would just say "Snort".

 

[amoeba]

Today made little sense; a decidedly weak retail sales #, second poor one in the last 3 months, resulting in a negative open gets completely overshadowed by an unexpected announcement that auto tariffs would be delayed (auto sales, electronics, others, were part of the overall weak number). OK fine....I shall live to trade another day, I guess. What's next? Cow tipping? I'm still hoping to somehow pull even for the month with a well-timed IFT....don't have much confidence, never did, in May.

 

[amoeba]

More weak retail #'s today, LOW, etc. Earlier this week, existing home sales as well as a slew of retail comp reports disappointed. Technically, the 13 EMA substantially touched the 50, and when that last was breached 10/4, there was more than just blood. All that said, we're coming up on the best weak volume seasonal play of the year; Memorial Day....so it may be time to throw down some chips for a day or so before and/or after, to pick up some last coin before the curtain falls on this bull. It is big gamble, and, despite the lack of huge drops recently....3% or more in any day (either way) next week is not out of the question this time around.

Place your bets.

 

[amoeba]

Look at today's 24% aaii bull reading! Anyone buying?

 

[Whipsaw]

Amoeba, where is that figure found?

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba, where is that figure found?

here

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

[Whipsaw]

So, is this a contrarian figure? Dumb money? What is it indicating?

 

[amoeba]

So, is this a contrarian figure? Dumb money? What is it indicating?

Strong contrarian. A buy signal. Can go lower, but consecutive weeks in the 20s is unusual. I bought, 100% all in, today.

 

[amoeba]

Oh the humanity! Sell sell sell (today, then buy tomorrow, so I can get out; thank you for your consideration).