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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
userque
Well-known member
The different data are all connected. One thing may lead to another. So on and so forth.
Closing in on a half dozen aaii bear readings in the 20s. This market is at least 10% overpriced. Some sectors, like gold, going to the moon. But the large caps are building. I see this ending badly. That said, there is another holiday coming up, so may as well keep my finger on the button to try to catch a low volume up day...may wait for the jobs report.
And so it shall be...50% goes into equities today, the rest tomorrow. This flattening going into the G20 suggests someone knows something and it is good. 7th consecutive aaii bears in the 20s, but gold reversed sharply today. All in COB tomorrow.
Boghie
Well-known member
So much fear out there...
Maybe Nike will have to glue their shoes together in Vietnam rather than China. Oh, the humanity.
The beauty of capitalism is Nike will glue their shoes together in Mozambique quicker than you can bounce a dead cat. Be in this market. It just might be a 30%er. You don't have to be 'All In' like some drunk stumblin' up Wall Street, but you also don't have to be 'All Out' like some drunk stumblin' down Wall Street.
Another half year like the first horrifying six months and I might start thinking about taking the 72(T) and retiring. Oh, the humanity. Might have to hang through next year to afford my personal chef though. That would be nice. A Winnebago Driver, a yacht captain, and a personal chef. Nice.
Happy Hunting...
Maybe Nike will have to glue their shoes together in Vietnam rather than China. Oh, the humanity.
The beauty of capitalism is Nike will glue their shoes together in Mozambique quicker than you can bounce a dead cat. Be in this market. It just might be a 30%er. You don't have to be 'All In' like some drunk stumblin' up Wall Street, but you also don't have to be 'All Out' like some drunk stumblin' down Wall Street.
Another half year like the first horrifying six months and I might start thinking about taking the 72(T) and retiring. Oh, the humanity. Might have to hang through next year to afford my personal chef though. That would be nice. A Winnebago Driver, a yacht captain, and a personal chef. Nice.
Happy Hunting...
In equities 100%...looking for about a week of gains associated with low holiday volume, froth follow through on a nonevent G20, and a better jobs report..revision upward of last month's horrible number would be nice too. Hoping to exit North of 1% for the week, and then miss a few down days before going back in. Sound good? I think so.
Boghie
Well-known member
Going to burn one of two valuable IFTs on day one of the month - to lock in a one point gain? You will only have one left for July...
1% gain already, including last 2 days of June...but...now I can at least miss the down day tomorrow. All time high with midday reversal as good an exit as any....even if it is early in month.
Just as I thought, so now: I am going back in equities today, blow that second IFT on a sure thing pre-Holiday, light volume up day tomorrow. Not sure if I will cash out then (July 3) or July 5, where a surprise report and revision to last month will blow the top off of 3,000. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess. But I'll be sitting in G fund, again.
Boghie
Well-known member
Why try to time such dinky moves. Really, who cares about 1% moves one way or another.
Being in the market during a bull run absolutely dwarfs the affect of avoiding a 0.23% 'crash' - or even Great Depression level 1.23% wealth destruction
Having an annual average return of 3% is going to kill your retirement. But, whatever allows you to sleep better is the right thing. All that means is you will have to work longer.
Mcqlives
Active member
Everyone is different in their retirement plans. I would like to make as much money as possible and currently tend to ride the trends up a little longer than a day or two...but if I can clear 12% a year I am happy, so I can see why moves like that are worthwhile.
For example....I'm coming up on retiring next year and my calculations are based on a 12% profit average each year starting with 0% draw down for 7 years (working at a retirement job to off set difference in income), followed by 4% a year for 5 years (probably not work but still will have expenses to make a draw down necessary) then 6% draw down after that, travel as I want, spoil any grand kids and never work another day while still increasing balance. Reason to build balance into retirement is simple...besides all the normal trips/toys/house/boat/car/etc I will think about buying...Retirement centers, especially with medical services, cost at least $150 a day. You never want your balance to shrink to a point where you can't pay that for yourself and your SO.
Here are the made up numbers (matched to my draw down/profit % goals) to support a reason to shoot for the 1% a month average.
Starting balance: $500,000
Balance after first 7 years: Appx. $1,100,000
4% draw down a year on that is $36,000 (appx net) a year. Still making the 12% gain so balance continues to climb...
Balance after next 5 years: Appx. $1,580,000
Even if I then drew down 12% (appx $131,000 net) on an occasional year (and I don't know why I would do that), the balance is enough to have my wife and I both in an assisted living residence for 15 to 20 years without even considering selling property or other investments. If inflation causes significantly higher prices then I still have that for padding.
For example....I'm coming up on retiring next year and my calculations are based on a 12% profit average each year starting with 0% draw down for 7 years (working at a retirement job to off set difference in income), followed by 4% a year for 5 years (probably not work but still will have expenses to make a draw down necessary) then 6% draw down after that, travel as I want, spoil any grand kids and never work another day while still increasing balance. Reason to build balance into retirement is simple...besides all the normal trips/toys/house/boat/car/etc I will think about buying...Retirement centers, especially with medical services, cost at least $150 a day. You never want your balance to shrink to a point where you can't pay that for yourself and your SO.
Here are the made up numbers (matched to my draw down/profit % goals) to support a reason to shoot for the 1% a month average.
Starting balance: $500,000
Balance after first 7 years: Appx. $1,100,000
4% draw down a year on that is $36,000 (appx net) a year. Still making the 12% gain so balance continues to climb...
Balance after next 5 years: Appx. $1,580,000
Even if I then drew down 12% (appx $131,000 net) on an occasional year (and I don't know why I would do that), the balance is enough to have my wife and I both in an assisted living residence for 15 to 20 years without even considering selling property or other investments. If inflation causes significantly higher prices then I still have that for padding.
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Boghie
Well-known member
Wow, that is a risky assumption - but to each their own
Did you make 1%/month in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, or 2011? If you did I want your trading system and will give you half of what is in my TSP account!!! If you did not, I might suggest using less aggressive growth numbers. And, since you are retiring next year what happens if you lose 16% in two days? I'm not bad on tracking the market. However, I got back into the market one morning in October of 2008 (after a decent marker in technical analysis) and lost 8% the following day. I IFT'd back out to G but missed that day's COB deadline - so, I had to get through the next day's market cycle. That day dumped 8% for a total of -16%. Ended 2008 at -11.6%, so not bad at all. I was up 7% at the time of the October trade, definitely not bad at all. So, two days of market failure in a year after the trend had a definite upswing. Not good and definitely not good if I was retiring the next year.
But, again, to each their own.
Mcqlives
Active member
Boghie...I can't pull up the 2000-2002 statements on the TSP site and don't have access to those files right now. I didn't have much money in the TSP back then and don't recall actively trading the account. I do remember being thankful I was buying in low
. As for 2008, I think we all took it in the shorts to some extent, me more than you...I took a 20.26% loss that year (I think I ate the same 2 days you did for 16% too). That is the year I became much less aggressive in my trading. In 2011 I pulled 11.87% and last year I pulled 11.53 (it would have been much nicer but I got cut bad with the santa rally fail. The years in between (2012 through 2017) averaged about 9% so you are right, not the 1% a month...but plenty to live on in retirement. And even if I don't make that amount, for me, a 3.02% draw down, after taxes, would make my take home the same as it is today so anything in excess of that is pure profit in my eyes.
I'm a simple guy and don't need a bunch of toys to enjoy life so those are not necessities. And another huge portion of my overall portfolio is my house, which will be paid off in early 2021. Not having that mortgage payment increases my net expendable monthly money by a significant margin. You are right with my numbers being a risky assumption and suggesting using less aggressive growth numbers. I should have clarified more so as to not present potentially misleading information to people reading my post. I was just shooting numbers that would support a +1% a month strategy and explaining my "hoped for/best case scenario" goal. Believe me when I say that I am not going to risk my financial safety net and rely on those 12% figures to survive.
As for a system, I'm the last person to claim to have one. I just play my moves as I see them and rely on you, and others on here with more trading experience, to influence what I am seeing in the markets. The only thing I do regularly, which I'm sure others do something similar, is charting with the C, S, 50MA and DJT. I then work in Bollingers, and run 5 day to 3 month (very rarely longer than that) charts and compare everything to Bquats (much cleaner and nicer than mine) charts.
Happy 4th everyone!!!
. As for 2008, I think we all took it in the shorts to some extent, me more than you...I took a 20.26% loss that year (I think I ate the same 2 days you did for 16% too). That is the year I became much less aggressive in my trading. In 2011 I pulled 11.87% and last year I pulled 11.53 (it would have been much nicer but I got cut bad with the santa rally fail. The years in between (2012 through 2017) averaged about 9% so you are right, not the 1% a month...but plenty to live on in retirement. And even if I don't make that amount, for me, a 3.02% draw down, after taxes, would make my take home the same as it is today so anything in excess of that is pure profit in my eyes.I'm a simple guy and don't need a bunch of toys to enjoy life so those are not necessities. And another huge portion of my overall portfolio is my house, which will be paid off in early 2021. Not having that mortgage payment increases my net expendable monthly money by a significant margin. You are right with my numbers being a risky assumption and suggesting using less aggressive growth numbers. I should have clarified more so as to not present potentially misleading information to people reading my post. I was just shooting numbers that would support a +1% a month strategy and explaining my "hoped for/best case scenario" goal. Believe me when I say that I am not going to risk my financial safety net and rely on those 12% figures to survive.
As for a system, I'm the last person to claim to have one
. I just play my moves as I see them and rely on you, and others on here with more trading experience, to influence what I am seeing in the markets. The only thing I do regularly, which I'm sure others do something similar, is charting with the C, S, 50MA and DJT. I then work in Bollingers, and run 5 day to 3 month (very rarely longer than that) charts and compare everything to Bquats (much cleaner and nicer than mine) charts.Happy 4th everyone!!!
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DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hi Boghie, What method or indicators do you primarily use to determine your entries and exits?? You do very well so its obviously working! Many of us could use some helpful tips...especially me!! :smile: A few days ago you said the trend is your friend, but I also assume you were not meaning that folks should buy and hold. Any tips or secrets you can part with would be very appreciated! Seriously....
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