I trimmed yesterday to 70% equities...today (7/5) to 55%....looks like I may take a bit more of a haircut in I fund, but I had the least in that and with FV adjustments, who knows? I've already met my minimum goal for July...and on track for 1%/month, so no sense over risking.
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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
I plan to reduce further Monday, to not more than 40% equities...this latest move up followed what I consider incorrect speculation on rate cuts which will be reversed between now and the next BOL report. I expect another +200K number...and a possible rate increase, NOT a decrease, this year. And a mild recession in early 2020, but that will depend on a lack of a trade deal and that scenario may change.
Mcqlives
Active member
I think trend is up again...but am still hesitant to act on it. I almost went in yesterday but missed the cut-off. Then I was going to buy in this morning and talked myself out of buying in on an up day. To me this seems to be pricing in of an anticipated .25 rate cut next week along with good earnings numbers and GDP report. If there wasn't so much hype about an anticipated cut I may have gotten in. Fed and Powell statement may cause a give back at end of meeting next Wednesday if there is anything the markets can interpret negatively. Sucks that statement will come out on last day of the month. After that the news cycle will turn back to China deal.
Have a great weekend!
Have a great weekend!
That was on 7/24, what a difference 10 calendar days makes, SOXL got socked for something like 30% ever since. I peed away 4% on less bad trades...about 50% invested, the rest cash, in my Roth. Been in G for TSP since early July. Ranked 48 in the tracker for this quarter returns. Room for improvement in year to date return, ranked in the 800s.
I lied...sold SVXY @51.04...with AH tanking, it looks like the right move.
Well I'm bullish feeling, but in G, which is uncomfortable when indices attack but don't quite make it past their 50 ema. I think that could happen by Friday for the SPY, but not sure if I'll go for it...I'm behind my goal for the month. I see SPY of 2950, maybe a bit more in the next 5 biz days. I also see 2600 or less, some time in the next 3 months.
That's scary
Well that prediction sucked...so I put 30% into equities COB...and WTF is up with today's reaction to random tweets, and that limpwristed 5% tariff surcharge? That is meaningless. I suspect computer algorithms are the culprits, and expect a return to common sense Monday...at least a deadcat bounce of sorts.
And so it twas....today....holding for one, maybe two more days....then back to G...is my likely moves forward.....I would like to see that 50 EMA in SPY recaptured. 2950ish.
No brainer oversold....too bad it occurred after the IFT deadline. If markets are flat tomorrow, I am going all in....if up, significantly, I will sell. Then its 8 daze of vacation 4 me.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
FAAM
Active member
... Ahhh, Sell whatever's IN, go to G-land, enjoy vacation worry-free (my 2-cents).
Either way, best wishes for y'all's trading, and enjoy an appreciative Labor Day and all the great things (mostly taken for granted nowadayz) that the common working person and the labor movements have brought us.
... Ahhh, Sell whatever's IN, go to G-land, enjoy vacation worry-free (my 2-cents).
Either way, best wishes for y'all's trading, and enjoy an appreciative Labor Day and all the great things (mostly taken for granted nowadayz) that the common working person and the labor movements have brought us.
Well yes...the other no brainer, in addition to the no brainer oversold bounce I just called, is the Holiday light volume updrift, for which the setup is in my opinion excellent for a continued bounce at least Thursday...so I will sell tomorrow, b4 or after the IFT deadline depending on the price..might even give a go at a little bit of F fund if I anticipate a 9/9 selloff as human (vs current algorithm) traders go back to work.
FAAM
Active member
My hat's off to you on the "no brainers" you're taking advantage of... wish I'd of seen/done that! Nope, I'm having hard time trying to get my head above water at work & not spending much time on this TSP/investing stuff outside of work (other that a little bit of Robinhood investing)... so not all of us what thinks we have some brain, know or see all these no-brainers. Maybe in a couple years when I'm retired, I'll get more atop that stuff.
So, thanks for sharing such insights and thoughts with the TSPtalk world!
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