amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Lost 1% in last 3 weeks...30 straight winning trades, but now last 8 of 9 losers. Some real stinkers. Didn't have more than 25% invested, so that 1% is really 4%. On a really bad patch right now, thankfully a short one. 100% cash in everything. Can't even pull off a win in short funds. Gonna sit on my hands for a bit here.

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[amoeba]

Its hard to stop an unstoppable rally if there's nothing forseeable to stop it. And AH tweets by POTUS are no longer enough. Especially when, if you can sift through the emotion, he's right most of the time. I am out, weighing going in versus another short trade (I've failed on several such trades recently). Or maybe a long trade with some hedge. I've lost so much confidence, due to a string of bad trades, that I've resorted to 'fake' exercises to see if I'm getting my MoJo back. I'm not. On the less dark side, I'm fully recovered from massive February losses, including 96% losses on XIV....but nothing else to show for the year, barely at mid January levels. Not a single trade since 5/15/18. Bad case of trader's block continues.

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[DreamboatAnnie]

Hang in there Amoeba.... It's a tough year! Let's get our mojo back! :smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm right there with you Amoeba. Been on the wrong side of this last move since it started, looking for that volatile move down that never happened. Now looking for this F-Flag to break down, maybe it wont? :-/

 

[amoeba]

AAII bulls jumped to mid 40s, which is high but not extreme like January, where it was followed by 3 or 4 consecutive weeks of further upgrind b4 a sharp collapse in the market. That collapse had a catalyst, the XIV liquidation, which wasn't a true event in the economic sense but rather AH manipulation. This specific event will never repeat but there are other potential catalysts. There are some similarities in the setup here, and, especially with currency exchanges, some differences. Bottom line....staying out.....will reconsider towards end of June to maybe bet on the midweek low volume holiday, which tends to have very little selling and an updrift, but nothing else at the moment.

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[FUTURESTRADER]

ye ol' S fund ain't goin down without a fight

 

[amoeba]

Well...I'm still searching for rhyme or reason for market direction...and what I'm coming up with is indices, especially S fund, are overbought. They could go a little higher before correcting a bit. Not confident.

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[amoeba]

Did I say something? Yes I did. Now, I am betting on a seasonal independence day bounce, which, if it occurs, will be by 7/5 or earlier. The fade Friday sets up neutral for this at worst, IMO. Put lots of $ where my mouth is, but have sufficient cash to hedge if it starts going south. Will know soon.

Market fireworks last year came weeks after 7/4...but history doesn't necessarily repeat.

Well...I'm still searching for rhyme or reason for market direction...and what I'm coming up with is indices, especially S fund, are overbought. They could go a little higher before correcting a bit. Not confident.

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[amoeba]

My last post...on 6/30....was also the last one that made money....since 7/2, I've been pee-ing away returns going after this and that...to the tune of a negative 2.3% since then....I now will do better. I'm going to short the market beginning some time next week and catch a big payday. I will get my money back. Dang you, market!!! AARRGGHH!

 

[amoeba]

Doing a little better, a weakly positive August for me, should be well north of 10%, but I'm not. Sentiment a dead heat on the aaii for 2 weeks now...I'm expecting the seasonal weakness in September to kick in very soon. SC confirmation, FED rate decision, baked in, although uncertainty may push markets sideways or even down, before months end. If so, I intend to rebuy soon thereafter the midterms.

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[amoeba]

In rarified air currently - within the top 50 in the rankings (#41) - for the first time I believe in 10 years; I've finished in the top 10 only once (#9, 2009), and in the bottom 10 once as well (forgettable):

Seemed rather easy to get there - all I had to do is be in G fund from late September to now (I'm back all in as of yesterday)....so in a meso-jolly mood....now, if random drivers would just stop hitting my car as they have recently (last 11 months; 2 front bumpers, 1 rear, one whole side keyed; prior 14 years - none), I would feel even better. I feel I have to put a bear fence around it. Better bad luck with body damage than with stock market; the latter can really hurt. Or feel good.

 

[amoeba]

Market looking, feeling, very bearish. The end may be near this bull run, and there may not be a bounce, or flag, to sell into before that is confirmed. Lost a good bit of my advantage...negative for October....and peed away most of September gains in the process. Midterms may turn this further South in a heartbeat. Those futures suggest a multipoint drop tomorrow....ahead of FAANG earnings later this week. May need to sell this and go hibernate for awhile.

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[amoeba]

Been awhile...didn't sell when I last posted, and got killed in early December, bailed, missed January, then added 3.5% in February, averaging down to 12%S, where I am now. I think this market will drop below its 200 EMA, again...and this week is the start of what will be worse. The aaii posted another low bear reading in the 20s, 4th consecutive, so the suckers have not yet been shaken out...I guess that includes me.

 

[amoeba]

So what did I do after my last post? Nothing...thinking that I wasn't that exposed with only 12% in the market. The last 2 moves have been big down for 3 months, and big up for 2 months....so who's expecting after 1 down week that the bleeding is all of a sudden going to stop? After a terrible GDP revision from europe and today's job # shocker? Not me. It feels like this market is going to continue to fly south like a duck in winter....down to the 200 EMA. So I bababa bailed even more! 97% G for me, 1% S,C,F for posterity. If I'm wrong, and there's some huge China deal Monday, I will take my lumps. Kinda doubt that will happen.

Also, deal or no deal, China's growth has been and will continue to slow. Take them apples, buy-and-holders!

 

[FAAM]

I'm feel'n the same as you voiced amoeba. I'm just a couple years from retirement & afraid to lose much & not have the years to dig outta a hole. So been playing for a long time w/little more than a third of my TSP in Mrkts & usually even more in G-fund than that. So, like you, today I skinnied back 8% more to G leaving just token 1% in CSI & some L's; only difference is I've had 8-10% in F so keeping 7% there. If Mrkts play out as you say (down in short/intermediate) then F should stay healthy.
THX for all your posting & best wishes to ya.

 

[amoeba]

5th consecutive week of the aaii % bears in the 20s. No brainer sell and stay out until this head fake, dead cat, bounce, reaches a more rational bottom. At least 4% down from here by end of month or I let my last IFT rot on the vine. Prove me wrong, anyone.

 

[amoeba]

Changed my mind...50C, 50S COB....but only in the very short term....the 1st 1% either way gets the rip cord this month...I just wanna end this month positive, which I'm not yet. Missed the last 4 days....just didn't see that bounce coming, and sure as heck not today. I still think sentiment is extremely bullish ( which is a bearish indicator), but large caps have yet another golden cross (200>50 EMA), for a week now. Hence all in, but ready to jump out.

 

[amoeba]

Screaming sell....I've been averaging out since my buy a week ago....getting rid of the last 10% today. No way the FED will be able to hold off rate increases with these job numbers. It will be either inflation, or interest rates, or both if they wait. The flip flopping yesterday is an indication that others think the same and the positive move today is a non holiday gift horse. The AAII came in with it's largest neuts in weeks, and bears in the 20s again (which is a contrarian bearish signal but weaker with the high neuts). I wll have beat the G fund after being down, could have done much better, could have done worse. But them's the breaks.

 

[Boghie]

Literally done nuthin' this year. +11%

No moves, no worries, nuthin'

Don't care about the FED. The concern is the national debt. That is not a good thing. Kinda like the Great Depression, but it is the gubmint that is broke and gettin' broker...

 

[JamesE]

You're not turning back into your old bear self are you? Ol Birchtree would be pouncing on you. I don't fight the tape anymore, lost too much money thinking "it has to pull back" over the years.

I still see people posting about this being a bear market rally.....geez.