alevin's account talk

[alevin]

finally, english. so market goes up. bet it all on red. got it.

No, b. missed the point. If MACD trend is contradicting the price trend, I bet it either red or black, depending on which way the contradiction is suggesting. I bet on the springtail off the 30-day moving average support when I put 10% of my monies down several weeks ago. JTH saw me do that, we talked about it at the time.

 

[Boghie]

I would think that Alevin is anticipating further drops to continue. I would anticipate a move up from here similar to the one started on February 3rd taking us into higher uncharted territory. All we need is for the Fed to taper their tapering for a few months and zoom up we go. I think the Fed is very aware of the Kress cycles that are bottoming this year pushing inflation into possible deflation - they will pump.

I think otherwise. The FED needs the Treasury to act properly to have an affect on the economy. Since the Treasury has not - and will not - act properly than they will defend the dollar. We will see a bit of deflation - but, it will be called disinflation or something equally stupid. The FED will continue the taper because they have to prepare for future jiggerability. Right now, they ain't got nuthin. In fact, after the taper we will get a pause and then a FED rate increase. This could very well be in the teeth of a rather minor recession. But, that recession could very well affect the bloated, debt ridden, and leveraged Federal Gubmint more than anything else.

BT, your hope is that the FED is purely political and not mission oriented. I hope they are not. Bernanke was stimulating the economy after the crash in a proper manner, then our Dummy President exploded Treasury spending on nothing of value. Now, the Treasury is coming to the cash flow problem we all have after spending our salary on a party before paying the rent. Oh well...

 

[Boghie]

I don't bet. I reduced volatility in my account. Money is too valuable to bet with

 

[alevin]

I don't bet. I reduced volatility in my account. Money is too valuable to bet with

Agreed, why I only put 10% down at the time. only bet what can afford to lose a little bit of. big dangerous market means small small bets. the fed better do the right thing and raise interest rates, but they will drag their feet until inflation is well on its way, sad to say. call it what it is/will be, til that day-disinflation, aka stagflation, until the grownups finally start finally doing a Volker.

 

[Boghie]

Agreed, why I only put 10% down at the time. only bet what can afford to lose a little bit of. big dangerous market means small small bets. the fed better do the right thing and raise interest rates, but they will drag their feet until inflation is well on its way, sad to say. call it what it is/will be, til that day-disinflation, aka stagflation, until the grownups finally start finally doing a Volker.

Yup, small moves are not gambling - small moves are taking advantage of the situation. I am not a buy and holder, I kinda like to mess with allocations - normally on the margins. For my age and risk aversion - and because I have been lucky enough to actually be ahead of the game at this point in my life - I can sit a bit in a risk adverse allocation for a bit of time... Had I been a bit more confident I would not have given up 13% of the market gains last year. Oh well...

 

[alevin]

I'm curious to see which way the week goes. One guy I watch is tracking 3 Peaks Domed house-with top of dome projected this week. Another guy I watch says we hit price exhaustion tomorrow on DeMark trend count. Another guy I track says if you like playing in the middle of rushhour traffic, be his guest, just know the probability of ending up in the hospital and have some good insurance ready.

One of my outside stocks, small oil in excellent location, did massive profit taking move today. No news to otherwise explain the big drop, but an insider sold a lot of shares last Friday. I may decide to downsize my holding, another company working the same formation is currently being promoted as better longterm buy based on financial (debt) condition-but I'll have to wait a little bit, that whole sell-replace in kind rules thing.

still playing safe (too safe it would seem) in tsp. One of these days....broken clock and all that.

 

[alevin]

Well, I miss out more often than not, but glad I missed today. Here's what I'm seeing in the weekly chart. Notice how many weeks we've been up against 1st resistance level on weekly chart. Hmmm.

 

[burrocrat]

does that chart mean it is supposed to keep going up after a little stutter step here?

i was thinking i might jump on the sale prices tomorrow with my fresh august trades if it looks like it's going to crack off another negative 2% burner.

 

[alevin]

I'm going to wait til I see it hit either the 40 or 50 RSI and turn back up, good chance it will for at least one last run, per chart blogs I read.

 

[burrocrat]

I'm going to wait til I see it hit either the 40 or 50 RSI and turn back up, good chance it will for at least one last run, per chart blogs I read.

can you explain what is RSI? and what are the key levels? does anybody here post that signal often?

 

[alevin]

If you look at the chart I posted, the upper box with the long linear squiggle is labelled RSI (RSI stands for relative strength indicator, pretty standard indicator). It varies between 0-100. Over 50, you're on fairly safe ground, especially if the squiggle is pointing up towards the 100 level.

In bear market, the line dropped below 20 and coming back upover 20 you're on safe ground, below 30 and coming back up is relatively safe ground in a bear market. In a bull market, drop usually stops at 40 and turns back up. Over 70 and the market is overbought. 80 becomes very risky. doesn't mean will turn down immediately but more likely than not in not too distant future.

I use it with other indicators, not all by itself.

I like using weekly or monthly chart for bigger trend picture, daily chart for making entry/exit decisions short term. still more an observer than a player.

 

[burrocrat]

oh. i was looking at the middle part where it always just keeps going up. it still don't make no sense. i like jth's cartoon charts, but sometimes i wish he would just say 'buy' or 'sell' instead.

 

[alevin]

Here, b. Definition of what RSI means. Maybe reading the definition will help it start to make sense.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) [ChartSchool]

 

[Birchtree]

"Little sister, don't do what your big sister done." That's from a song from somewhere.

 

[alevin]

Ahhh birchie. good to hear from you, but now I feel like burro. Do you mean don't wait to buy the dip? or do you mean don't take the plunge because the waters going to get deeper and better if I wait?

 

[Birchtree]

I think the storm may have passed and now is the time to build on your base. These crazy things happen out of nowhere and punish those trying to do right - there is much more to this mega trend secular bull yet to stampede.

 

[alevin]

We had a DeMark price(trend) flip on the weekly chart as well, ie closing price on the weekly will be lower than closing price 4 weeks prior, the way things are looking right now. That's a serious trend change, bigger (weekly) picture, could go for a few weeks, until unless we get another price flip back up at next weeks close. I'm going to still wait for the weekly RSI to tell me a lower base to buy in at, birch.

You don't know it but you've had a major effect on how I look at longterm buy points-way back when I knew nothing about nothing, you made a remark about slo stoch monthly below 20 and coming back up and over. I wish I had understood the implications then. I know now. but since I didn't catch that wave, I'm working off the weekly charts instead for bigger buy sell decisions. You know what you're doing, I'm still practicing for the next big one. It will come.

 

[SkyPilot]

Dwight Yoakam - Little Sister Lyrics | [V] Music

 

[alevin]

Hiya SP! Happy to have you drop in any old time. :toung:

 

[alevin]

No DeMark price flip signalling new uptrend yet. OTH, THIS pattern is definitely still in play: 3 Peaks Domed house. I tried to insert link to the actual image but Tom's software says the standalone image is too big, so the second link doesn't actually work.

Deflation Land

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4zxcca5jQGI/U92glyf_pfI/AAAAAAAAFD4/qroAfUjnAZY/s1600/SPX+08-01+1Y.png