alevin's account talk

[RealMoneyIssues]

So true, RMI! As an ex-Washingtonian, it took me a year to get rid of the rust and webbed feet after I moved to Hawaii.

Aloha alevin!

From where in Washington?

 

[alevin]

So true, RMI! As an ex-Washingtonian, it took me a year to get rid of the rust and webbed feet after I moved to Hawaii.

Aloha alevin!

aloha KK! That Honda Insight lean-burn version is worth considering, so thanks for the tip, Tractor.

Vehicle before the current 4-cyl P/U was a 4/cyl stick Honda Civic. Did me pretty well for 15 years too, and still sold it for a reasonable bit of change when I finally let go of it. but I've had fewer mechanic issues over the years with the 4-cyl Nissan stick PU (18 years old, owner for 13) than I did with the Civic (bought brand new, owned for 15 before started driving the Nissan)..so I've been thinking lately next vehicle might be another Nissan, different model, better mileage than the PU. Takes me awhile to make big decisions tho, I drag my feet, kinda like I do with my TSP account.

 

[konakathy]

From where in Washington?

Snohomish - east of Everett. I worked in Lynnwood for 12 years.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Centralia for me , Lewis County south of Olympia on I-5.

 

[jkenjohnson]

aloha KK! That Honda Insight lean-burn version is worth considering, so thanks for the tip, Tractor.

Vehicle before the current 4-cyl P/U was a 4/cyl stick Honda Civic. Did me pretty well for 15 years too, and still sold it for a reasonable bit of change when I finally let go of it. but I've had fewer mechanic issues over the years with the 4-cyl Nissan stick PU (18 years old, owner for 13) than I did with the Civic (bought brand new, owned for 15 before started driving the Nissan)..so I've been thinking lately next vehicle might be another Nissan, different model, better mileage than the PU. Takes me awhile to make big decisions tho, I drag my feet, kinda like I do with my TSP account.

Ever consider a Toyota. I have a Tundra with almost 200,000 miles and never had a problem (except a dead battery) with it. Of course, depending on what you buy, your gas pedal might stick. :laugh:

 

[alevin]

Ever consider a Toyota. I have a Tundra with almost 200,000 miles and never had a problem (except a dead battery) with it. Of course, depending on what you buy, your gas pedal might stick. :laugh:

Whee, time is getting close, everyone in the office is packing madly, still sorting through decades of accumulated records, figuring out what to keep, what to toss, what to shred. If toss, does it go in the trashcan, in recycle, to Friends of the Library, or in the 20-yard dumpster? If keep, will I need it in my immediate everyday cubie, will I want access every now and then in central filing? or can it go in unheated warehouse where I only need to see it once a year or less? Whew!

We had the ribboncutting ceremony at the new building Monday. Big empty spaces yet, modular cubie furniture going in now, say goodbye to good old GSA gunmetal gray desk and filing cabinets-I'm going to miss mine, what can I say?

On whole other note-I'd recommend folks visit Market-ticker.org for Karl's chart analyses today of potential for market meltdown a la CY2000 and CY2008, plus potential for massive brokerage failures and investor cash disappearing along the lines of MF Global and CME nonresponsiveness. He kept me out of the 08-09 crash, I give him high credibility even if I do resemble Chicken Little way too often in my investing decisions. Right now, today, he's advising Only cash you can absolutely afford to lose. potential for 100% loss.

I don't think I could get monies out of direct investment mutual fund IRAs or brokerage account Roth IRAs fast enough for what he's saying could happen, but I can pull some cash back from brokerage accounts-the taxable ones-not much, but it will make me feel better for time being. Fair warning from Karl, everyone. cluck cluck

 

[Birchtree]

The more bears the better.

 

[alevin]

The more bears the better.

This bear is feelin aw'right for now. Week 6 of 9 down on DeMark count. will it become 9 down? don't know, but until I see something change that count and trend, I'm staying out. YMMV.

 

[alevin]

Well, that last post in this thread was quite awhile ago. hadn't realized how "quite awhile ago". Time to get back to what I did on my summer vacation, besides go on historic pioneer trails with an excellent coffee mug. I got flustrated when we didn't get to 9 weeks down on the weekly DeMark, mentioned above. since then, I got myself tied up in knots trying to figure out the rhyme and reason on the daily counts (none that lasted a DeMark daily trend count pattern I recognize) and lost sight of the weekly counts. there may be other finer-grained DeMark patterns in the charts, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to pick them out at this point. lost in the forest, too many treeez. so I just sat out the sidelines almost ready to make a move every now and then, then the chart would reverse itself-again, before I got the move made-throwing me into uncertainty all over again-max amount of pain for the most number of people-that would be me this summer-the pain of not being in and missing the gains, always missing the entry points.

So where are we? Last week was week 1 of a new weekly count-DOWN. this week hasn't reversed that yet, by a long shot-there is much of the week ahead of us yet, I'll be curious to see what comes, but right now the weekly trend flop {freudian slip there-wasn't intentional) that started last week remains unchanged, per DeMark principles. Many people I read, are marking many different chart patterns that say we're in a broadening top and heading for a steep decline in not too distant future-days to weeks-with perhaps one push higher before the decline begins.

So what's my strategy? I decided to quit with the fidgety daywatches, stick with the weekly trend until pattern dictates otherwise, and go with a proven backtested tsp seasonal outperforming strategy I found over on a yahoo group come November 1-unless the DeMark indicators are screaming at me to wait a bit longer. The seasonal strategy says stay out of stocks (go F) from May 1 until November, then go into C til May 1. dates are approximate, depending on the year. longterm strategy. I'm not good at the 2x moves a month thing-obviously, or I'd be doing it more often so I'm going to work this seasonal strategy this year from November forward. no guarantees I'll do better than what I have doing, but the odds are good the strategy will outperform B&H.

 

[alevin]

Haven't had much to say about the TSP account for awhile. been focused more on learning to manage the smaller outside accounts better. but I finally have something worth talking about here, and being that it's a day I'm celebrating for personal reasons (hit the big MRA at long last-woot), figured I'd share something semi-positive (so unlike me) that may be helpful to others on technical aspects of where we're at.

Article at Minyanville caught my eye Friday, had chance to slow down and absorb its contents tonight. DeMark indicators! No, I haven't given up on them, just haven't been keeping track since I got so confused by the counts never following through last year-as of tonight I know what happened and why I got so frustrated. An aspect of DeMark counting I hadn't learned yet, but won't forget now, thanks to the excellent Minyanville article this week.
Interpreting DeMark Indicators: All Trends Must End, But The When Is Key | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street

Basically, the article looked at daily, weekly and monthly timeframes back into last year-(DeMark is a time-based technical system). A daily count on the uptrend just completed this past Thursday-waiting for a sell signal now-which may or may not happen but possible until 3/5 if it doesn't happen before that.

A weekly count on the uptrend also just completed at the end of the week prior to the one just completed. We now have 12 weeks to wait for a weekly sell signal (anytime up through the week of 4/29)-which may or may not happen. we shall see. Considering that the Monthly count is still in progress-2 different versions of counts in progress, which would complete in different timeframes....anywhere from 2-5 months to go yet before we get a completed monthly count and start looking for sell signal on that timeframe.

The article helped me finally get it through my head about how DeMark calculates resistance levels. so there can either be a break of resistance that would keep things going up on the various timeframes, or there can be failures to break the resistance level on closing basis within the timeframes noted. otherwise looking for priceflips within those timeframes.
Daily resistance break of 1533, weekly resistance break of 1541 are the nearterm resistance levels to be watching on DeMark timeframes. Have a great rest of the weekend, everyone.

 

[Frixxxx]

...and being that it's a day I'm celebrating for personal reasons (hit the big MRA at long last-woot), figured I'd share something semi-positive (so unlike me) that may be helpful to others on technical aspects of where we're at.

I know that is a relief! Congratulations, young lady!]

Interpreting DeMark Indicators: All Trends Must End, But The When Is Key | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street
Basically, the article looked at daily, weekly and monthly timeframes back into last year-(DeMark is a time-based technical system). A daily count on the uptrend just completed this past Thursday-waiting for a sell signal now-which may or may not happen but possible until 3/5 if it doesn't happen before that.
........

Nice find! Keep up the good work, or don't, you have reached the MRA!:nuts:

Frixxxx

 

[alevin]

DeMark indicators!
Interpreting DeMark Indicators: All Trends Must End, But The When Is Key | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street

A daily count on the uptrend just completed this past Thursday-waiting for a sell signal now-which may or may not happen but possible until 3/5 if it doesn't happen before that.

either be a break of resistance that would keep things going up on the various timeframes, or there can be failures to break the resistance level on closing basis within the timeframes noted. otherwise looking for priceflips within those timeframes.
Daily resistance break of 1533, weekly resistance break of 1541 are the nearterm resistance levels to be watching on DeMark timeframes.

Oooookay then. We got the price flip on the close for the daily timeframe today. That's one sell signal. It can always reverse. the weekly price flip hasn't happened yet-but I'm thinking its 90% probable we'll get it by close tomorrow-second sell signal. If we get the weekly close price flip, I'll be pulling out of the small outside trades I've got going right now that all still have nice gains I don't want to lose.

 

[alevin]

Still waiting on the weekly DeMark price flip for longerterm downturn, we have til sometime in April for that one to show up. Meanwhile, I got a new indicator toy for my charting, combo of Bollingers, Ichimokus and the latest-Renko. I don't understand Renko yet, but I see things when I put the price chart underneath and draw lines. I love new toys. If my lines on the chart have found consistent past turning points, we haven't topped just yet. But all you smart guys and gals probably already knew that.

[deleted]

Been awhile since I uploaded a chart. Never had double image before. Can anyone explain that to me? I only uploaded a single chart....and now I'm really confused, since I thought I just deleted the chart but its still there. A little help here?

 

[alevin]

Still waiting on the weekly DeMark price flip for longerterm downturn, we have til sometime in April for that one to show up.

Out of town and out of touch all last week. Haven't kept up well with market charts this month. Back in February I said we had til sometime in April for a DeMark price flip to show up (potential trend change to downside). Well, the price flip (weekly charts) finally happened last week-the week of April 15th-the week I was out of town and away from 'puter pretty much all week in intensive non-computer classroom.

The DeMark downtrend action will continue with follow-through this week if we get weekly close below 1569. Could happen, we shall see.

 

[alevin]

Dusting off the thread. Still interested in DeMark indicators but found what appears to be relatively simple longterm indicator for times like this. Never checked out accelerator bands before, but have been learning to work with combination of Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands. Decided to see what combining Accelerator bands with bollinger bands would look like.

Wish I knew how to make it come up direct as a cool image the way JTH does. I did it as a fluke once, can't remember how I did it.
FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

Robo and Hussman would concur what I'm seeing in this chart is consistent with the degree of near-term risk in the market right now. forewarned is forearmed.

 

[burrocrat]

so check this out, little miss alevin done turned into a trader on us when nobody was looking. it would sure make it easier to spot her trades you know, if she would post her trades.

anyways, after what seemed like an eternity sitting in G (it was an eternity) she put 85% all in, maybe it was a resolution being january and all. then she timely pulled it mostly out for about a 1/2% gain on the year (1/4 last year's gain) in one month and avoided the cliff. holy f***aroli. way to go girl.


my investing strategery track the autotracker is real simple: watch birchtree bull, watch boghie pragmatist, and watch alevin bear. don't get me wrong, i follow jth, coolhand, and bullit when i can get free info, but i can't interpret candlesticks or waves or whatever they're called. although jth is on a good track with his cartoon charts, those make it easy for me.

so birch is down, boghie is down less, and alevin is smoking it, while i sit in G. that is not what i planned on.

so post your trades, good and bad. you are an indicator species.

 

[alevin]

Hey now. I've been making comments in the tracker, at least. Yep, I decided to try this "best months of the year" play, got in end of December for January, guess what? it promptly blew up in my face. BC urged me to hang tough, not take a loss, so I hung in just long enough not to take a loss on the whole 85%-hattip burro.

but knew a big drop was on its way, based on the newest chart with new combination of indicators I began playing with and posted a week or 2 ago, some thread somewhere-after I'd already gotten in. new indicators told me I'd picked the wrong time to finally make a move, after the fact. Still secondguessed myself by not getting out completely this week. wish now I had.

oh well. got one move left this month, not much time to make it, considering will be away from computer in out of town meetings midweek next week. may choose to take the smaller loss come Monday rather than chance a nosedive even worse while the cat's away.

 

[Sensei]

PEIX shed almost 12% yesterday. :/ Still going to hold for a while longer?

 

[alevin]

Hi Sensei, no I'm not. My newsletter guy dumped the rest of his Friday. I'm still sitting on some good profits and think unless there is massive tankage Monday, I'll get out with good gains, just not as much as if I hadn't waited for him. In fact, him dumping may have been big contributor to the decline Friday. It's still expected to do well this year on fundamental basis. He expects to get back in again at some point. unfortunately he makes sure he's in or out before he sends the head nod. If I react fast enough, it doesn't hurt me.

I didn't react fast enough on another one he had me in on for good gains last year-he moved out too quick on that one for my slow brain, but was getting used to how he works and watched outcome on that one, so I now know if he gets out, its a good idea from trading basis.

 

[burrocrat]

oh my. when i checked last night the tracker must not have updated yet. you were up a half but now down a third.

now i see the extent of the devastation. minus 2.5% for the s funders. oh my. things are starting to look good for my hit and git strategery. time to warm up the engines for launch.

i think you just committed yourself to being a trader in 2014. if you run to G on monday you are down -0.38 plus any attendant losses by the close. it will take until july just to climb back to zero sitting in the garage.

yep. alevin is a trader now.