alevin's account talk

[Guest2]

Before I start to read your thread, I wanted to say Hi.


HI !!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[alevin]

:laugh: Hi iii iii !!!!! Not smokin' anything funny, no, not me.

 

[Guest2]

:laugh: Hi iii iii !!!!! Not smokin' anything funny, no, not me.

(LoL) I'm in Prison ! Pass the power hitter ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

I can't see this Run lasting too much longer without another consolidation
week. As Birch says; the market likes to shake the trees before climbing.
(heck, something like that). James P&F Chart, Birch's Crossover and my
gut tells us its not over ! But a temporary drop, maybe as much as 6%
is what I'm trying to avoid right now.

 

[Steadygain]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=177521&postcount=146

mi casa es su casa!

This is probably the most beautiful expression I've ever heard.

Other languages have the ability to express things far beyond our simple English version - and do it in such a way as to express much more heart, life, and feelings.

Please tell me what your singnature expresses... I have no clue and even if I translated it - I could miss the real meaning.

Quaere verum. Don't settle for anything less. Timendi causa est nescire.

 

[alevin]

Steady, Buster started it!:laugh: Back during election chatter. I was attempting to alleviate mistruths and calumny being carelessly thrown around as truth-various parties. He changed his tag along the way, reflecting his anti-boredom personality, I haven't gotten around to changing mine to something I like better-symptomatic of my own procrastinating nature.:toung:

My tag reads "Seek the truth, settle for nothing less, ignorance causes fear".

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, Buster started it!:laugh: Back during election chatter. I was attempting to alleviate mistruths and calumny being carelessly thrown around as truth-various parties. He changed his tag along the way, reflecting his anti-boredom personality, I haven't gotten around to changing mine to something I like better-symptomatic of my own procrastinating nature.:toung:

My tag reads "Seek the truth, settle for nothing less, ignorance causes fear".

Good morning my dear Sister !

Thanks for the explanation and that makes all the sense in the world.

Listen Alevin I have a knack for finding 'Character' - because in the end that's what's most important. So do as you wish but I would not change it at all. I think 'Seek the TRUTH, settle for nothing less, ignorance causes fear' is an excellent signiture that describes you well.

In my world - I'd already determined what it meant

 

[Steadygain]

Alevin,
I've never had a sister until I met you - and now it's unbelievable how meaningful you are in a very solid way. I was going to leave a while back - but decided to stay until everything was caught up and now I'm finally ready to leave.

Anyway when you haven't been around for awhile I worry about ya and wonder if everything's OK. As your big brother don't ever hesitate to let me know if there is anything I can do.

Well I couldn't head home without letting ya know - I hope you're OK and you've been missed.

Steady

 

[alevin]

Hi Steady, yes I've been quiet lately, nothing to be concerned about. Nothing turrible going on, just same-same, waitin on the market to finally figure out things AREN"T getting better anytime soon, and take another nosedive-either that or wait for 13x34 week EMA cross, or 20x50 week SMA cross, or ADX move supporting DMI+ cross up over DM- on weekly chart. Ichimoku weekly charts still non-contenders too. I'm not chasing the bear rally, once I missed the first couple days of it, which I knew in my gut at the time, coulda shoulda gone for it, but since I didn't, I'm waiting for bigger better surer bang for my bucks-it will come. Meantime still learning to play with ETFs, albeit w/limited funds-I'm more active at present on ETFtalk.

Sis is same same too, haven't talked to her lately but the family grapevine says same same-no movement on the western (eastern) front-she thinks she has her priorities straight re putting kid-care issues before her own needs-I choose to disagree, but irrelevant. even if kid-care issues weren't present, doubtful she'd move in the medical direction we hoped for-mind too set in hopelessness/inertia to change unless forced-but there is no leverage to force change. Prayer and letting go of outcomes-only way to deal with that one.

I've offered my nephew a place to stay if he wants to go back to school and retrain for a different type of tech job, alternately offered to loan money for unaffordable tools so he could land first mechanic job-no movement there yet either, but I hope he's considering the offers-income situation getting desperate with benefits and hours cut and cut and cut in current job.

OK, so back to my regularly scheduled program of doubt and doom-casting. :cheesy: I really like John Hussman's analyses. Here's excerpts from his most recent....http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090420.htm

Overall, the picture looks a lot like the bounce we observed in May 2001 (just before unemployment shot up and the market plunged again to fresh lows), when I wrote:
“I've noted that most of the talk of having hit bottom in the economy is without support from the data. I have very little doubt that rather than having hit bottom, the economy is about to turn far uglier, far faster, than most analysts imagine. The economic outlook is increasingly bleak, but I have no opinion about how long investors will be able to look over the valley (or canyon) in hopes of a recovery.”

The market enjoyed another bear market rally a year later, well before the final lows. Again, the rally was coupled with hopes of a recovery, fueled by “upside surprises” in measures that were actually still very tepid. While the recession was in fact already over, that didn't stop the market from suffering a near-30% plunge to the final lows.

we should be careful to make distinctions between what constitutes improvement, and what only constitutes a backing off from extreme risk aversion. Put bluntly, the economy is not improving, and it is not likely to improve within a few months, because we have far more defaults, foreclosures, and credit excesses to work through. It is simply not true that the stock market heads higher 6 months before the economy bottoms. That simplification was true of 1970 and 1975, but not much else. Rather, there is enormous variation, and about the only reliable tendency is that stocks are usually advancing strongly within about 3 months of a recession's end. That said, in the 2000-2002 plunge, the market didn't bottom until about a year after the recovery started.

 

[Bullitt]

James P&F Chart, Birch's Crossover and my
gut tells us its not over ! But a temporary drop, maybe as much as 6%
is what I'm trying to avoid right now.

If you believe we're going higher, do you believe trying to avoid a 6% drop is worth the risk? Will you look to add to your equities if we get a 6% drop?

I am looking to add, but that's more of an ETF talk issue.

 

[alevin]

Bullitt, not sure if you're talking to me or SB, but since he's taking a break at the moment, it sounded to me like he was planning on being ready to bail back in after last Monday's drop if he hasn't already-I haven't kept track very well.

I recently freed up some ETF cash myself and making plans for some new buying when indications are that the turn has finally arrived. Not there yet but close. Inverses but not triplex inverses. Also a few single stocks I'm eyeballing-would like to pick up to 5 of those for longer holds once they come back down closer to my price range.

 

[Birchtree]

Hesitation can be expensive.

 

[alevin]

It's far more expensive to be in at the wrong time-timeframe dependent of course.

Something to ponder as this rally slows....http://http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2009/0424.html

 

[Birchtree]

Alevy what's it all about? You can't make any money in a money fund or savings account - even though stocks are reducing their dividend payouts - not all are doing so - income is available and will grow.

 

[Steadygain]

No offense !!

I would say her underlying characteristics are exceptionally strong!

She is incredibly smart, very well planned out, does her homework and has somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 x the knowledge I do when considering the wide variety of financial sources she is very in touch with.

She is totally independent - and has no need of anyone to cramp her style - or try to persuade her in a direction she has not already chosen to take.

Putting everything together - I'd say she is right on target. Overwhelming odds are - she will not miss out on a substantially better entry point in the near future (especially 1 - 2 months).

So I'd say - let this one do her thing - cause she's one of the best.

 

[alevin]

LOL. guys, guys. Settle down, I'm all right, altho it's "Alevie", not "Alevy" . My mom had 2 boys before me but they didn't make it, so I could've been the middle or youngest, instead of being the oldest as I am now. Always wondered what it would've been like to have 2 older brothers and not just a younger one (who I love and respect to pieces, btw). Starting to feel like I've got the oldest bro lookin' over my shoulder these days. :laugh: No fistfights defending kid sister, please Steady, I can handle Birchie taking me to task on some topics, I'm still up on the year in TSP, even if I have dropped from #7 to #50 at the moment. Those who follow a strategy are better off than those with no plan, and those who can change strategy when circumstances warrant, are even better off. That's how I'm looking at things.

Learning to play in brokerage account-high risk marketwise, low-risk capitalwise; leave the TSP to accumulate capital while I'm learning something besides index investing. I like learning by doing, but some things I can't learn at all just sticking with TSP. I'll have to let Birch know when I finally plunk down on the first couple divvy stocks. that should ease his big-brother concern when I do.

 

[alevin]

Playtime over at ETFtalk. Bought my first 2 divvy stocks, ATN and BP, one faring better than the other this morning. Value stocks, moderate risk. Oldest brother will be proud.

 

[Steadygain]

Oldest brother will be proud.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=217693&postcount=861

Oh Alevie - there is no way possible I could ever be more proud of anyone. You have such an amazingly wonderful heart and your life reflects a LOVE that very few have genuinely known. Your LOVE has a depth and richness that can only come from one Source and that Source is what binds us so closely together. This is why I love you so deeply, why I am so overwhelmed with your sensitivity - your heartfelt desire to extend your life - and all that you deeply and truely represent.

My wonderful Sister - and my only Sister ever - it is not a few investments in any stocks that would make me so proud of you; it is the underlying 'INTELLIGENCE' by which your investments are driven. You are so incredibly smart, so strong, and independent - so these are but mere reflections of something far greater.

This is my last message to you - my dear wonderful amazing friend. Please know that I have been called into another world - and this is one I have to leave. I must - and I have no choice - because to stay would discredit everything. I included a link in hopes you can understand the bigger picture. All is well with me and life is wonderful and even more amazing events are at the doorway. So I am only here to say good bye as I find the need and with you that time has come.

Always (and forever) be true to yourself - and the world will see I have the GREATEST SISTER ever. Please extend my heartfelt love to your Parents - and hopefully someday Sis will know the depth of my love and concern for her and find the same Source that gives a Lasting Hope and the most Amazing Peace.

Your Loving Brother,

Steady

 

[alevin]

Well, it's been raining here, typical spring on and off weather, hard to finish putting in the garden or finish getting the yard mowed, so I'm back to looking at things here.. .after missing the start of the rally, I decided to wait for the big wave-the one that brings us all the way back on "safe" ground on shore-if that's the one that's in development now. I doubt it so am waiting for confirmation.

Marty Chenard offered some charts and analysis today that fit with waiting for the big one, not based on the 13x34 or 20x50 week MAs, either, but consistent with them timingeidr, from past history. We're not there yet, kids, long ways to go still. I'll keep playing around with my commod ETFs and single stocks while I wait for the big one before making any big moves back into stock funds in TSP. The ETFs and stocks are "chump change" relatively speaking so been giving myself permission to learn brokerage process by risking small amounts in the market for now. Not doing too badly, not too hot, not too cold, just right (goldilocks reference-waiting for the bears to come back home, don't want to get caught napping).

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[alevin]

Just checkin' in to say Hi all. A number of other interesting charts and graphs in the same article where I found this today.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm