alevin's account talk

[CountryBoy]

FERS for 24 years and haven't ridden this market down thanks to the folks here educating me, otherwise I would of been one of the sheeple and would've bought into the B&H dogma. Now I'm afeared of jumping back in and that's almost just as bad, especially since I believe the Feds and big boys are playing games with the market and just trying to suck us main streeters back it.

I'm really torn, luckily I've got 4 years left and can still increase my retiremnt since I'v been mainly in G since Nov 2007 and am still ahead of my planned savings amount to date. But at the end of 2009, I gotta start up again. Hopefully we'll have more of a sign by then.

CB

 

[Birchtree]

I'm an evangelical buy and holder and I'm staying that way. The important strategy is to continue to DCA all the way down - dumping fresh money down the dark deep well and then continue to DCA all the way back up. That discipline worked fine during the last bear market (2001-2003) and a majority of buy and holders during that period came out smelling like a rose. You just have to buy your positions when the funds are on their lows - you get so many more shares for your money. It's the accumulation of shares that will hold you in fine stead in retirement.

 

[alevin]

Birchie, did I ever tell you about my early career IRA mutual funds that sank like a rock in 2002, climbed out of the B&H pit, only to sink back below where I started, as of this year? No net gain in 7 years, in fact a net loss, thanks to inflation? 7 years from now, where will those numbers be?

 

[CountryBoy]

I'm an evangelical buy and holder and I'm staying that way. The important strategy is to continue to DCA all the way down - dumping fresh money down the dark deep well and then continue to DCA all the way back up. That discipline worked fine during the last bear market (2001-2003) and a majority of buy and holders during that period came out smelling like a rose. You just have to buy your positions when the funds are on their lows - you get so many more shares for your money. It's the accumulation of shares that will hold you in fine stead in retirement.

Yeah, I think I'm just going to have to pick my spot and shut my eyes and jump. It's funny, I have no problem buying stocks with all my extra money, but the TSP is different, I guess because of less control we have on it, with only 2 IFTs.

CB

 

[alevin]

Congratulations to the risk-takers that have done well with this little rally (and bumped me and other Gfunders out of top 7 [temporarily anyway , it felt good while it lasted].

Just remember this bear takes no prisoners. Baltic Dry Index is giving you fair warning. :worried:

http://www.rubbernet.com.sg/baltic_indices.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Congratulations to the risk-takers that have done well with this little rally (and bumped me and other Gfunders out of top 7 [temporarily anyway , it felt good while it lasted].

My sweet wonderful sister,

THANK YOU !!

It was an aweful feeling sinking down futher and futher (dramatics... here imagine me being like a super drama queen) WE ALL KNOW AT LEAST ONE

but just when all signs of hope were disappearing (cluching my chest, eyes closing and almost fainting)

S Fund sprang to life and threw me over 7%

I'm not use to that kind of stuff - and it startled me - then I realized 'Hey I'm a Pansy and I can be Pansy King - so I grabbed the Crown'

Hope you're enjoyjng my little story... I actually have a patient waiting on me ... came in after I started.

Just remember this bear takes no prisoners. Baltic Dry Index is giving you fair warning. :worried:

HOW RIGHT YOU ARE !! and THANK YOU for the WARNING

I'm just going to chill and enjoy ... and take my time

Have a great weekend and I hope all is well

 

[alevin]

I'm so glad! The rental neighbor who went over the edge into serious psychoses several weeks ago, finally left today for other parts of the state, permanent relocation, not coming back. the landlord kicked him out. He was supposed to have been out a week ago, but today he finally actually hooked the car onto the car trailer and U-haul and is really really gone. Finally.

a recently unemployed guy in his late 20s-mid30s, had previously done felony time for drugs and B&E, and on probation for something or other. He seemed moderately stable until about 5 weeks ago, suddenly all the neighbors were calling the cops on him, weekly or more often, for various reasons related to serious delusional behaviors affecting all the surrounding neighbors, including menacing and stalking the renter in other half of the duplex (due to delusions/hallucinations he was having). The other renter is my disabled (stroke) Nam vet friend who's been carrying his pistol with him constantly since the onset of the crazies. We've been afraid he'd be forced to use it. Cops and landlord all know he carries, and what could happen. Nobody seemed to be able to do anything about it, been waiting for something tragic to happen.

Mental health had been called in by the cops at onset, but wasn't convinced enough at the time to do a forced hospital admission, cops hands' have been tied since then. The only way finally to deal with the crazy was he'd only been paying partial rent for months on end, and had begun doing serious damage to the inside of his apartment after the crazies set in. Landlord was able to kick him out after giving 30-days notice. I've had some weird and scary neighbors in the duplex over the years, but this is one of the most nerve-wracking situations we've had. Feel bad for the guy, he doesn't know he's hallucinating, thinks everything he's reacting to is real, won't go to the hospital voluntarily. I've been deferring doing serious brush removal on that side of the yard until he's gone, was afraid he'd react to that, he's been so paranoid since the crazies started. Now I can get the tall shrubs on the fenceline removed this spring and not worry it's adding to his hysteria. I now have more mental space to think about TSP and market. YAY!!!

 

[XL-entLady]

Allie, congratulations! I know this day has been a long time coming. I'm so relieved for you, my friend!

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Prayers do get answered !
Stay Safe !

 

[alevin]

Prayers do get answered !

Thanks SB, thanks Lady. Prayers do make a difference, I'm positive. I'm praying now for the kid, that he gets the help he needs before he deteriorates worse and hurts someone over in his new location. He's gone to live with his mom, who knows about his condition. He seems to do better when he's not living by himself. He had a girlfriend with him but broke up with her for good reason, right before the crazies took over worse than before the breakup. Yeah, they were there before the breakup, just not as intense.

Anyway, I'm praying for him now, now that I don't need to spend as much time praying for neighborhood protection.

 

[Steadygain]

even tho they are currently trying to save for college for a kid next year ($80K-almost as much as my house cost!)

Oh Alevin, what a mess I am.....

You're one of my favorite 'posters' and sometimes things become like a broken record.... it's crazy but true.

So for the past few weeks this thought '$80K for college next year' kept popping up over and over...

AND everytime - my logic flashes and I argue with the thought and think IT CAN'T BE $80 K for one year.

Came back to resolve the issue - and reading it (instead of flash scan) makes a big difference.

Hope all is going well at home - in life - and with the family

 

[alevin]

Steady, you may be a mess, (I don't think so-it's all in your head :cheesy but you're always welcome to visit.

Things are fine locally, the midnight prowlers are quiet for the moment. Familywise, things are as they were, no better no worse. Wish they were better, but you can lead a horse to water, can't make 'em drink. So be it. I must be reaching the acceptance stage on that situation, past the bargaining, anger stages-at least for now.

Been learning the ropes slowly with ETFs, letting that be my risk capital for now, still fairly conservative, no playing with 3x loaded weapons of any kind. Brokerage fees will eat cash up if I play too often. Sent in the paperwork for e-brokerage Roth account yesterday. After that I'll have more flexibility, even if not much cash in either account. Some ETFs I only want to hold in Roth account, not in taxable account. Tax reasons.

Not as much time to do research for decision-making lately, brain too full with work urgencies and homecare urgencies-spring fever! :nuts: I'm still waiting for trees to come out so I finally have a good garden space. Was supposed to happen today, but way too windy. Needs to happen soon tho for the major surgery trim jobs-before trees start budding out. Will have to break out the lawn mower this weekend too. Ugh-only if ground dries out enough tho. serious spring snow all day yesterday, rain overnight. Still waiting for some seed to arrive I ordered 3 weeks ago. Erk. Impatient.

 

[Thunderhorse]

I'm glad that that at least some things are going better for you!

Roth ebrokerages - I'm thinking about setting one up but not quite sure where to begin. Just been so busy with family, work, spring chores, and not much time to dedicate to research.

I was on the phone today with a friend who works projects for us on Whidbey Island. Even he was feeling down about the rain and gales there on the Strait. Beautiful country. Hoping to visit them again in the next few months.

Sunny days ahead!

 

[justbizness45]

I'm glad that that at least some things are going better for you!

Roth ebrokerages - I'm thinking about setting one up but not quite sure where to begin. Just been so busy with family, work, spring chores, and not much time to dedicate to research.

I was on the phone today with a friend who works projects for us on Whidbey Island. Even he was feeling down about the rain and gales there on the Strait. Beautiful country. Hoping to visit them again in the next few months.

Sunny days ahead!

Whidbey Island is a beautiful place. I was up there on a search a few years ago. Too far from work for me to live there though.

 

[alevin]

Enjoyed the visit, THorse and JB. You guys reminded me of a longrange intention to spend time in the San Juans-biking and sea kayaking one of these days, when the economy turns around and I can get an elbow back into full working order.

 

[Steadygain]

Familywise, things are as they were, no better no worse. Wish they were better, but you can lead a horse to water, can't make 'em drink. So be it. I must be reaching the acceptance stage on that situation, past the bargaining, anger stages-at least for now.

Thanks for your very enjoyable response !!

In all sincereity I'm just about falling asleep. Finally finished up my last note and getting ready to head home for a very 'restful weekend' - but wanted to respond to this before I left.

I'm the rapid responder here - the one (and only one) that deals with all the unexpected emergencies; the walk ins; my scheduled patients; and covers for any and all psychiatrists who are off or unavailable for their own patients.

I deal with everything imaginable - from the skid row drug abuser to the one that makes more in one week than I make in a year by selling drugs, meth manufacturers and the whole gamit; let alone the flashers, child molesters, murderers, depression, anxeity, and about every form of psychosis imaginable... and all that is just the tip of the ice berg... honestly it just barely touches what I do...

I'm telling you this because somehow when I'm with them (guy or girl - young or old) regardless of whatever is going on ONCE they are with me somehow they can tell I'm in touch with what's going on. Somehow they know I'm connecting - and that I care and am ready to do everything possible on their behalf.

So I feel terrible about what happened and I hope I didn't make things worse. I really wish I could have interacted in person; as I believe that would have made a huge difference - it usually does - and it's just amazing the feedback I get.

But you're right my dear precious sister with the heart of gold - sometimes people would rather wallow in their misery and stay as they are - then make any changes or allow anyone to help them turn things around. I just hope in some way I planted a seed - because so much of that situation are specific medical problems of overwhelming magnitude. But to be burned on the level she was and by the ones that burned her - makes it awefully complicated.

Anyway - I've thought about this lately - and reflected on a number of patients that started crying in my office and throughout much of my encouters with them. They cried because no one had ever listened as I listened; had never displayed the love and compassion that I offered - and that made all the difference in the world.

Maybe you could call the place and see if a Social Worker would get in touch - it might make a huge difference hearing the voice of someone right there...

But don't be burdened - other than sharing your love and life as you do - because a very huge part of what I have to do ALWAYS and WITHOUT EXCEPTION - is let it go - if they respond and want my help then there is a 99% chance they'll get better - but there is always that 1% that nothing I do is going to help - and for those who refuse to be helped I simply can not bear that burden because it is totally there decision.

It is ALWAYS such a joy to hear from you. Things are going well with my family. My grass is getting green and the leaves are budding. I put a new oil filter on the mower and will get a new air filter and sparkplugs over the weekend. Already got the battery out of the basement and started her up a few weeks prior.

Have a wonderful weekend

Steady

 

[alevin]

"Almost persuaded....". .Tammy Wynette had a hit with it, don't you know?
http://www.cowboylyrics.com/tabs/wynette-tammy/almost-persuaded-180.html

Last night, all alone in a barroom
Met a man with a drink in his hand
He had baby-blue eyes, coal black hair
And a smile that a girl understands.

Then C came and sat down at my table
And as C placed his hand over mine
I found myself wanting to IFT
For temptation was flowing like wine.

And I was almost persuaded
....
Almost persuaded
.....

Then we danced and C whispered, "I need you!
Let me take you away, and be your fund."
Then I looked into C's eyes and I saw in it
The reflection of my G fund.

And I was almost persuaded
To let strange lips lead me on
almost persuaded,
But G's sweet love made me stop and go home.

View attachment 6131

Corepuncher talked awhile back about waiting for the 13Week x 34week EMA crossover, which is slightly different than the 20week x 50week SMA crossover I've been watching for.

since today is the first week in a year that we've seen the weekly candlebody close solidly above the 13week EMA, in SPX, EMW AND IEE-any of them. I may choose to celebrate mildly next week by going for a dip in the shallow end of the pond, get the feet wet, test the water and all that.

Highly unlikely I'll completely throw caution to the wind, forget my common sense and committment to my G-rated boyfriend, but I may allow a dance or two with these other guys (C,S,I) for a week or three before regaining my senses and remember where we are and how utterly untrustworthy these other guys are-they're only after my money after all, no matter how good-lookin' they are. How's that for mixed metaphors?

all depends on how interesting the guys still look come Monday morning after being out on the town all Friday and Saturday night-Monday is the dumb money day, so I'm told; I'd rather be smart money, truth be told-those smart-money boyz don't play again til next Friday (so I hear).

 

[Birchtree]

Just like in love and life you need to take the chance. Hesitation can be expensive. Staying on the lily pad gives bottom feeders like myself an opportunity to climb to the surface - it's all in the sacrifice. The SPX at the 200 day MA around 1006 would be close to a ?50% gain off the bottom at 666. Thinking in terms of a possible 105% gain in the next several months still leaves you with plenty of room to grow your assets.

 

[alevin]

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composi...SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend-alt-cpi

The chart is much easier to see when you click the link above.

A critical factor for the reliability of a regression analysis of stock prices over many decades is the accuracy of the inflation adjustment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been actively tracking inflation since 1919 and has estimated inflation rates back to 1913 using data on food prices. In 1982, however, the BLS began incorporating changes to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is used to calculate inflation. These changes have resulted in much lower "official" inflation rates than would have been the case if the method of calculation had remained consistent.

At his www.shadowstats.com website, Economist John Williams publishes an "Alternate CPI" employing the earlier BLS method. let's take another look at the S&P Composite, this time adjusted for inflation since 1982 using Williams' Shadow Government Statistics. The change is astonishing. The adjustments to post-1982 data alter the slope of the regression that impacts the variance from the trend across the entire time frame, dramatically so in the last two decades. With this adjustment, the S&P 500 has been below trend since 2002. The current bear market has dropped the monthly average index price 50% below the trend, which puts us in the territory of those secular market troughs [previous secular bears].

My opinion is that the optimum method for calculating consumer prices is somewhere between the revised BLS method and the historic method preserved by Williams. But for a long-term regression analysis, consistency is essential, which lends some credibility to the alternate CPI chart as an indication of the current index price relative to previous troughs.

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/regression-to-trend.html

I've seen the sharp break in un-inflation-adjusted slope of the S&P at early 80s, ever since I began chartwork, was never able to explain it til now. The gov changed the rules on calculating CPI so people wouldn't see how bad inflation really has been! (nothing new under the sun-Solomon knew that how long ago?) If you want to see inflation the last 20 years, based on the way it was always calculated before 1982, go wander the dshort website-there's another chart there you may want to see.

Not saying I'm convinced we're near the bottom, just a possibility. With all the crap coming out about AIG sideletters (and possibility of similar stuff with other insurers), along with the latest public-private game for the banks, I'm way more convinced this has much further and deeper still to go in the unwind direction, actually, but hey trade the tape you've got-and be prepared for lightning to strike-it's not choosy about its victims but you can reduce the risk it'll be you. Bear market rallies, bear market rules.

 

[alevin]

OK, so I haven't traded the tape at all. Big chicken me. there was a moment, back when we had that big swingin' doji at the March bottom when instinct told me to move, and then I didn't. and didn't, then I decided the move would be over before I did, so I let it go. Still a bear rally per the charts, which means it'll come back my way-eventually. Or, when I finally see a chart that really works to fully convince me. This one still doesn't...

Why, you ask? Well, take a look at the 74-75 SloSto and RSI combo, then look at the ADX that went with it. The ADX was below 40 which meant whipsaw territory, not strong up or downtrend either one.

NOW look at the current SloSto/RSI combo, then look at the ADX that goes with IT! Sure the ADX is starting to bend over-a little, but it's still over 40 in a strong downtrend (brown line)-higher than blue line, until the ADX drops below 40 and/or blue crosses up over brown. So I guess I'll wait til the stars line up a little more. :worried: I'm doin' my risk-taking over in the ETFs with smaller bits of cash for now, learning lumps and bumps along the way.