alevin's account talk

[XL-entLady]

Hi Allie, my oh so wise friend! I told you I should have said it last time, so I'm going to say it this time. Yeah, what she said!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you so much for taking the time to explain..

I'm sorry Alevin - I should have stayed where I belonged but felt a need to come to Obama's defense.

Will send the letter out today - I promise I'll take it by the post office on the way home.

I'm sorry it's taken soooooo long... but I needed to do everything possible to make sure there were not things in my own life needing addressed before I could call on God to work through that letter.

There is only one more thing I need to work on and I believe the only way it will resolve is by giving it time and simply putting my trust in God. It's a strange situation but I can not battle it anymore - it is not a battle that should even exist. Take care my friend and if the letter works as we hope then I am very happy for all concerned.

Steady

 

[justbizness45]

Hi Allie, my oh so wise friend! I told you I should have said it last time, so I'm going to say it this time. Yeah, what she said!

Lady

Yup!!

 

[alevin]

Well, I have the sense that the situation is reaching critical mass as the SPX pennant tightens down to an upcoming pop vs. drop crux. KD did go on to say later that day (on TickerForum-the discussion site) that more often than not, such a setup in the past, has resulted in a substantial pop. Still, history is not obliged to repeat.

BAC dropped below $5 today, Attila Demeray is forecasting the stock will be down to $2 by sometime next week. I had begun making plans awhile back to diversify my cash accounts so that if BAC went down, I'd still have access to cash elsewhere, by opening an account with a much higher safety-rated 5-star Bankrate-rated local bank. Those funds been sitting there since then, safely collecting dust while I continued to operate out of my BAC account for the time being.

Today I began to change that-shifted my pay direct deposits to the other bank as of this coming payperiod, planning to ACH my Roth cash into the discount brokerage account tomorrow finally, and move some more of my emergency cash stash (read roof replacement funds, over into the credit union).

One of my 2 credit cards is a BofA and I use it for any internet purchases I make, so it's not that I want BAC to go down, more that I'm hedging my near-term bets by making sure I have access to most of my emergency cash through other facilities. If BAC goes down, it's going to be tough for the FDIC to instantly cover all the under-100K deposits that are covered in theory.

 

[KevinD]

that are covered in theory.

:worried:

 

[XL-entLady]

Very smart moves, Alevin! After all this dust settles, if you never needed to make them, then all you've lost is a little time. But if you should have done it and didn't ...

Great job!

Lady

 

[alevin]

View attachment 5687 View attachment 5689

Here's the source of my uncertainty. Daily is showing a weird sort of uptrend coming, through the 3d week of March (I think). Assuming price bars rise above the green cloud and stay there a bit. Upper/lower boundaries of green cloud become support range, if I understand the Ichimoku concept at all yet.

Green cloud out through 3d week of March seems to indicate shortterm uptrend the next couple weeks, but the upper boundary drop at 890 seems to say price support will drop back down to 860 by March 1.

On the other hand, the weekly chart suggests probable continuing downtrend between now and early July. The Ichi charts only go back 3 years, so no prior history of cloud/price interactions from past downturns to use in interpreting what the daily/weekly charts suggest here, but the articles I've read suggest that the longer range charts are more reliable. I did manage to get out of my 870 purchases of C this past week on Thursday. Down .5% on the year in real account so far. Wish I'd dared wait one more day, but I get burned everytime I wait for that 3d day, either way since last summer. Happy to only be down .5%.

I'll wait to see how the cloud patterns play out come March before I make any new moves (unless I see 750 or below next week), I got 1 more move yet this month.

 

[Steadygain]

Hi Alevin - hope things are going well.

Wanted to let you know that the new guy that took over Veteran's Affairs has key issues on his agenda which include opening VA health care to Veteran's previously unable to enroll and streamlining the disability claims system.

I got in the system only because the company I worked for was basically put out of business by competion and was out of work most of that year - even with that situation I barely qualified.

Anyway that's the last I'll say on this as we've done what we can and simply have to trust God from here.

Well take care,
Steady

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi Alevin, saw your post on brokers. If you wouldn't mind, please share with us which broker you decide to go with, because you have such a logical mind that we'd love to know your pick!

Speaking of your logical mind, I'm glad you're making some headway with your ichi clouds study - - because I am not! I've gone back to it several times but it is still a foreign concept. Pun intended. I've tried to find a web site that would explain it in terms I can better grasp but so far no luck.

If you find a "Clouds for Dummies" site let me know! :laugh:

Lady

 

[alevin]

Hee hee, I set up an account w/Options Xpress before I found this calculator site. Haven't done any transactions yet, just stuck cash in so far, ready for decision-making which is slow. OX is a bit spendier for transactions than say Scott Trade, but I picked them because they have no debt (#1) so are not especially at risk of tanking and running away w/my $ from company management standpoint, also they get very high marks for customer support-email and phone (from reviews I read-good thing for a brokerage newbie), they have practice account for options/put call learning (others do too tho).

From the calculator site choices, I'd be going with FolioFN and stand-alone stock pick strategy as opposed to basket strategy if I wanted to go with a site that lets me buy incremental shares. Had my eye on them for quite awhile, but they are not quite as easily accessible for newbie clients as OX is, so wanted a little more customer support to start with. Once I get comfortable w/online discount broker dealings, I'll probably start a different account with Folio-next year. The strategies make a difference, between calculator site choices-I want to minimize transaction costs by picking things I may want to hang onto awhile, minimize turnover.

Clouds? Aggg, I don't have them figured out yet, especially daily version. I may be overanalyzing trend patterns, especially of pink downtrend clouds, even the weekly version. The one site I posted for Malyla is best I've found for understanding Ichis. It talks more about the red, blue, green lines than it does about up and down, red/green cloud patterns. I think I understand the line indicators, just haven't figured out their relationships to cloud patterns and colors, maybe a little bit enough to get hurt if not cautious enough. Using in combo w/ADX, psar, etc. for near-term behavior.

 

[alevin]

Wow! Lady's been keeping after me on this Ichimoku thing I've been muddling with. Her persistence pushed me to keep looking for better information tonight on how to use this indicator (system) and finally found some material that is pushing me forward into MUCH better understanding of complexities and application. Too bad I didn't have some of this new enlightenment this morning before I moved some mutual fund $ around, I'm sure I'd have done a better job on timing than I probably did since I didn't use any indicators other than the longrange weekly downtrend Ichi clouds for stock indices that show out the next several months (oh and KD's and Attila's projections of major downseys coming up real soon based on PTB ongoing mismanagement of national financial situation).

With new and improved comprehension of Ichi system (imperfect still but definitely improved since this morning), added to ADX and RSI and...and..., I suspect I'll do better this year than last year, we'll see. I'll try to explain what I'm doing when I use Ichimoku system to help me decide on move timing, but for now it's really really complicated, even more than I realized so I'll hold back on interim discussions on the subject. I'm sure it will get simpler to talk about as I get more used to thinking their way, kind of like ADX which took me awhile to be able to talk about semi-coherently.

Here's a couple of the websites I found tonight that are deepening my understanding on this system...a LOT to absorb and think about and study. Not simple, at least for a westerner! and not for a linear thinker either, got to think in multiple directions and timeframes before making decisions. Wow!

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

http://http://www.kumotrader.com/ic...Ichimoku_trading_strategies#Senkou_span_cross

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Ichimoku_trading_strategies#Kumo_Breakout

http://www.traderslog.com/ichimoku-analysis.htm this one is a definite warning lesson that you can't just use bits and pieces of the system, got to use the whole system together integrated. good analysis and comparison of partial application, relative to moving average indicators used in the same timeframe.

 

[alevin]

Just thought I'd brighten everyone else's outlook.....KD is not the only one with prognosis for low low low scary numbers coming up-with solid rationales in support. I'm redesigning my back yard for supplemental food production. May become essential at some point, but even if not, homegrown is always good and satisfying.

EARNINGS ARE CRASHING
by Carl Swenlin
DecisionPoint.com
February 13, 2009​

The real P/E for the S&P 500 is based on "as reported" or GAAP earnings (calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principals), and it is the standard for historical earnings comparisons. The normal range for the GAAP P/E ratio is between 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued). "Operating earnings," exclude some expenses and are deceptively optimistic. The following are the most recently reported and projected twelve-month trailing (TMT) earnings and price/earnings ratios (P/Es) according to Standard and Poors. I have highlighted GAAP earnings. Note that projected earnings for 2009 Q2 are $15.90.

Based upon projected GAAP earnings the following would be the approximate S&P 500 values at the cardinal points of the normal historical value range. They are calculated simply by multiplying the GAAP EPS by 10, 15, and 20. The charts on our website are still based upon 2008 Q3, which is wildly optimistic compared to 2008 Q4 earnings, which are still being reported (85% completed). Note that the S&P would have to drop to 554 just to be overvalued based on 2008 Q4 earnings projections. The outlook by 2009 Q2 is much worse.

Of course, the market doesn't always follow these projections, but they are reasonable targets based upon the best fundamental estimates we have available. * * *
Bottom Line: Market fundamentals are abysmal. Whether or not there is a substantial rally, I believe there is another 50% decline coming. That would be a downside target of about 350 on the S&P. [And based on these normal accepted-accounting, routine earnings and P/E estimate calculations, SPX would STILL be OVERVALUED!!!!!] :worried::blink:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0213.html

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you for that beautiful POST my sweet thoughtful sister.

Yes, I realize that the BULK would love to go on with the hopes and dreams that we are at the end - that the wonderful things to come will dominate the near and distant future - and that the SP will effectively halt the progressive decline and turn things around.

But I just don't see that at all Alevin - not for one split second do I see anything like that happening. Instead I see the Markets taking a dive that is essentially unpresidented - and that goes beyond what even a real BEAR Chearleader like me could hope for.

I say this because I am well prepared for this event - as the G Fund provides everything I need until the big crash arrives. My lifestyle hasn't changed in the least - if anything I'm even more inclined to spend a little here and there because I'm getting such incredibly super deals.

But as for the food - OH MY DEAR SISTER - I would love to spend the summer seeing the beauty of OR/WA and someday I will. But the land out here in IL is so ideal for homegrown stuff and if you saw not only how much we grow - but all the more how delicious it is - you'd appreciate all the more why we can hundreds and hundreds of quarts of various things and why we freeze so much as well.

I hope you're feeling better

Steady

 

[alevin]

It sounds like you have more landbase to work with than I have, Steady, which is really nice for you. I'm a little jealous. Storage space for mass canned/freezer production is a moderate problem too when you live in a small (but AFFORDABLE! ) 1950's house, but I'm working on both angles. Thinking of small greenhouse to extend fresh produce season so I don't worry about storage quite so much, or be quite so frustrated that I don't have as much landbase for summer production as I wish I had available. Contemplating asking neighbor if she'd consider leasing part of her vacant lot behind me-long story there, won't go into it here-suffice it to say it's not garden-ready, and she's one of those who doesn't like ideas that aren't hers in the first place.

As far as my propaty goes, still dithering between homemade cold frames or taking the plunge into greenhouse kit. Need to make up my mind in next couple months. $ only go so far, but so does garden space on my place too. Requires redesigning underground sprinkler system, taking out a couple trees (they need taking out anyway), building raised beds (river cobble under the sod)...lots of work to be done, cash flow, cash flow, time, energy, logistics ). And yes, I am feeling better, antibiotics for nearly 20 days does help! :toung Not nearly as grumbly growly as I was. Thanks for asking.

 

[alevin]

OK, well, if the world doesn't fall apart tonight, I have a monster day ahead of me tomorrow so gonna hang it up for the night. We got "The Word" last Friday morning.

Stimulus shovel-ready list of projects and support documentation to help my engineering buddies put together tomorrow by noon (7-day implementation timeframe).
And a second-round slightly deffered (by 30/60/90 days implementation timeframes) stim construction project list and supporting documents due by Wednesday COB. And a few other projects in support of future construction projects. CB should be proud. Something meaningful IS getting done, of course it's creating chaos in our offices, swapping out funds already appropriated for these projects and replacing with Stim package monies. It does free up the regular appropriations to get other appropriate work done tho, only thing is shortage of available contractors, or contract inspectors will be a problem too, not to mention getting all the regular work done too with same number of people inhouse to handle double to workload. But hey, we're a can-do outfit around here. We'll git 'er done. Somehow.

 

[Steadygain]

It sounds like you have more landbase to work with than I have, Steady, which is really nice for you.

I've got a little over 8 acres. The lawn is over 2 and with that includes a huge garden - which limits vacations to June - because the harvest is throughout the following months.

I'm a little jealous.

Don't be. I've got a few hundred trees and bushes that get trimmed around at least once a week when I mow. The Garden and flower gardens (and rose garden) all need frequent maintainence. I'm a high perfectionist when it comes to the lawn - so I mow in different directions and often use the lawn sweeper for the finishing touch. Also costs a lot to spread the nitrogen and spray the weeds....

BUT THE MAIN REASON WHY YOU HAVE NO NEED TO BE JEALOUS is because where I live are mainly huge fields of corn and soy beans as far as the eye can see - things are really flat everywhere.

YOU HAVE THE THE CROWN OF BEAUTY - very few areas would ever be able to compare to the PNW.

Storage space for mass canned/freezer production is a moderate problem too when you live in a small (but AFFORDABLE! ) 1950's house, but I'm working on both angles. Thinking of small greenhouse to extend fresh produce season so I don't worry about storage quite so much, or be quite so frustrated that I don't have as much landbase for summer production as I wish I had available. Contemplating asking neighbor if she'd consider leasing part of her vacant lot behind me-long story there, won't go into it here-suffice it to say it's not garden-ready, and she's one of those who doesn't like ideas that aren't hers in the first place.

As far as my propaty goes, still dithering between homemade cold frames or taking the plunge into greenhouse kit. Need to make up my mind in next couple months. $ only go so far, but so does garden space on my place too. Requires redesigning underground sprinkler system, taking out a couple trees (they need taking out anyway), building raised beds (river cobble under the sod)...lots of work to be done, cash flow, cash flow, time, energy, logistics ).


And yes, I am feeling better, antibiotics for nearly 20 days does help! :toung Not nearly as grumbly growly as I was. Thanks for asking.

I'm so GLAD you are. I worry about you a lot (and same with squalebear) - once I know you're not feeling well.

Thank you !!!

 

[alevin]

View attachment 5807

OK, maybe I won't get hurt toooo bad with my increased levels of bond allocations in IRA mutual funds last week. The green leading cloud wasn't showing up in the chart last week when I moved, although green was showing up on the daily charts. But I'm stuck with last week's decisions for 3 months or take a 2% hit if I move back out any sooner than that, so I hope this Ichimoku weekly indicator holds me over for the next 3 months. I'm probably 60/40 bonds/stocks in IRA mutuals at the moment. But my holdings in IRAs is a token compared to my TSP at this point, so my cap. preservation in TSP is holding the line with bulk of retirement funds.

 

[Guest2]

I'm so GLAD you are. I worry about you a lot (and same with squalebear) - once I know you're not feeling well.

Thank you !!!

Alevin: I'm extremely happy to hear that your feeling better too !

Steady: I too have been doing well since the injection, I'm just being extra
cautious and limiting my normal routine. Thats why I'm not in this chair
as often as I've been in the past. I don't want to tweek anything.

 

[alevin]

Alevin: I'm extremely happy to hear that your feeling better too !

I too have been doing well since the injection, I'm just being extra
cautious and limiting my normal routine. Thats why I'm not in this chair
as often as I've been in the past. I don't want to tweek anything.

Thanks Squale, and thanks for the update. You know the offer still stands.

 

[alevin]

Yeehah! I never made it into the top 25 last year, and today I'm in the "group of 12" that have been sitting in G since the new year. I have to give credit to following the ADX weekly indicators, and now additionally give credit to the weekly Ichimoku indicators, for keeping me out of harms way thus far this year, even if that's all it does for me this year, I'll have been well-served by those 2 indicators.

However! I just found the only English-language book on Ichimoku indicators on the web the other night and ordered a copy. Hasn't arrived yet but I'm pretty excited, first serious technical indicator book I've bought. I'm hoping it will help me use the daily Ichimoku indicators more effectively so that I can do a little better than just sit in G all year. If you see me starting to move around a little more often in coming weeks-well, that might be why. Meanwhile, sittin' and drummin' (my fingers), waiting for S&P P/E GAAP values to show their true colors. :blink: