alevin's account talk

[Steadygain]

Yeehah! I never made it into the top 25 last year, and today I'm in the "group of 12" that have been sitting in G since the new year.

You're doing GREAT because you knew in your heart the Economy and Markets were terrible. There was no way they could go anywhere but DOWN and so you made the right decision to stay in safety. BUT my smart (and sweet) little sister - they will get worse before they get better.

Don't be too anxious to leave G Fund. Think of us being on the most perfect Island with the most beautiful views and perfect weather. The water is crystal clear and hundreds of colorful fish are swimming all around. When the Markets go down like yesterday your personal assistandt is bringing you some fresh lemonade and spraying a mist on your skin to deepen your tan and keep you from getting burned.

So instead of druming your fingers - and jumping down the tubes. I'll grab my guitar and stum a song....

Where have all the flowers gone ....

long time passing

Where have all the flowers gone....

a long time ago

Where have all the flowers gone

the bears have chased them underground

when will they ever learn

oh when will they ever learn ....

 

[XL-entLady]

...I just found the only English-language book on Ichimoku indicators on the web the other night and ordered a copy. Hasn't arrived yet but I'm pretty excited, first serious technical indicator book I've bought. I'm hoping it will help me use the daily Ichimoku indicators more effectively so that I can do a little better than just sit in G all year. If you see me starting to move around a little more often in coming weeks-well, that might be why. Meanwhile, sittin' and drummin' (my fingers), waiting for S&P P/E GAAP values to show their true colors. :blink:

'Mornin', my friend! I will be so interested in finding out what you think of your book. I keep going back to Ichimoku clouds but it's just not sinking in. I guess I just don't have an inscrutable oriental mind. :laugh:

Have a good one,
Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Hey little Sister - this song keeps trying to emerge and I hear it playing over and over in the background (of my mind) as I'm trying to catch up on everything.

So thought I'd share it with you - knowing you may enjoy it as much as me.

When I'm done I'll come back to really enjoy it - with all the vocals and brass and everything.

Anyway - hope ya like it and have a great weekend.


Stay
A-a-a-a-ah, just a little bit longer
Please
Please, please, please, please
Tell me that you're going to

Now, how your daddy don't mind
And your mommy don't mind
If we have another dance
Yeahhhhh, just one more
One more timeeee

Oh, won't you stay yeh yeh
Just a little bit longer
Please let me hear
You say that you will
Say you will

Won't you press your sweet lips
To mine
Won't you say you love me
All of the time

Stay
Just a little bit longerrrrrrrrr
Please
Please, please, please, pleaseeeeee
Tell me that you're going to

Come on, come on, come on and ... yey-yey-yeh
Come on, come on, come on and stay-yey-yey-yeh

The Chantels

 

[alevin]

Steady, steady steady, my friend, too much coffee again? I can tell you were buzzing. song is nice, I know you meant well and were just checking in, but the lyrics-a bit too personalized for my shy quiet home here. How about restarting your thread in the lounge so everyone can enjoy the stream of conciousness with these songs there if they want to check to see what music is playing today? Just a thought...

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, steady steady, my friend, too much coffee again? I can tell you were buzzing. song is nice, I know you meant well and were just checking in, but the lyrics-a bit too personalized for my shy quiet home here. How about restarting your thread in the lounge so everyone can enjoy the stream of conciousness with these songs there if they want to check to see what music is playing today? Just a thought...

No it wasn't too much coffe at all - the song truly started playing and immediately I thought of you and childhood dreams. I really do love you as a sister and it was honestly just a way of keeping in touch.

Thanks so much for being real with me - that's all I could ever ask and I promise I will be real with you too. No PROBLEM at all; and you can be sure I never have to be told twice...

I put everything on the open MB so that all of us can be part of the universal conciousness - that we all might be a real family - yet my messages are usually very personal as well.

So as I learn the atmosphere of your home and what makes you comfortable 'I PROMISE YOU I'LL BE GOOD' but I may make a few mistakes along the way :embarrest:

On the Market stuff I talked with a CAT insider today and he said the higher ups of the Company said they do not expect CAT to turn around until 2011 - He stressed that year several times.

So Alevin - it's not coffe at all; it's my refusal to lose myself in all the garbage of negative vibes and bashing... and it's equally knowing the end (or bottom) are no where in sight... so I'm trying to throw out some 'better stuff'

Thanks so much for being exactly the way you are - and I will not post any more songs in your home.

I'm finding G Fund increasingly comfortable and in all sincerity I don't care where I am on the AT - to me the main thing is staying above the water. Again, sorry about the awkwardness but it's always a learning endeavor. TRUE FRIENDS WILL REALLY BE TRUE - BE REAL AND OPEN AND STRIVE TO GIVE GENUINE HONOR AND RESPECT.

Steady

BTW - While taking Ella on a 3 mile walk today I played this song and really enjoyed it. Out in the country on a road with very little traffic you can really let the full song come to life and stretch is out.

Well have a good weekend

 

[Steadygain]

meanwhile back on planet Earth....

Stadiums were packed and huge crowds filled The Mall, parks and open spaces throughout the globe....


......most waving banners saying HAIL to the QUEEN


........the biggest celebration was throughout the PNW where every town and city declared a National Holiday 'Queen Alevin Day'

Top Anchors around the world crowded to ask her questions....

How does it feel to be the FIRST QUEEN to rise to the TOP 10

And with every question the crowds roared: HAIL QUEEN ALEVIN

"Well, gosh it feels prettty good"

HAIL QUEEN ALEVIN

How many times did you lose in one of the worst Markets ever?

"I never did lose, not even once"

HAIL QUEEN ALEVIN

With each question - and response - the crowds grew louder and louder. Banners were waving everywhere. People all over the globe, both young and old - of every race and nationaliy were in unison.

How does it feel to be the Leader of the G Funders - the one group that decided to defy all the odds and go forward with consistent gains and no chance of losing.

"I don't see myself as the leader and I never in my wildest dreams thought I'd ever get this kind of attention. I just felt to bet againt these Markets was ridiculous and went forward with a better plan"

HAIL QUEEN ALEVIN - THE QUEEN OF THE TOP 10

Good morning my brave and couragous SISTER - this will give you something to tell Mom and Dad about.

If they ask about me...:embarrest:....just tell them that I went under the water...but I'm not dead. Then stress that over the months I'm just one of the many that had to fall behind as you moved forward.

Have an absolutely WONDERFUL - simply irresistably incredibly GREAT DAY - for you are now among the VERY TOP.

 

[alevin]

Steady, top 10 honors belong to ALL 15 of us G-funders , elevating me above the rest is unwarranted, since the only reason I'm in the 10-spot is due to alphabetical order. Could just as easily be Wrngway, if Tom had alphabetized in reverse and I'd be sitting at 25, which is where I floated in and out of much of last year in Tracker.

At one pt last year I was in the low 70s in Tracker. Real account I netted about +.5% last year, but ended -1.5 or so in Tracker, due to not doing exactly the same in Tracker paper acct. This year so far, Tracker and real account match.

I must admit it's pretty cool to be the representative G-funder lucky enough to get tucked into the 10 spot tho, it makes everyone think I'm more of a genius than I really am-until they look at the next 15. :laugh:

 

[Steadygain]

Hi Dear One,
Hey wanted to let ya know we're sweeping out a lot of the trash :embarrest:

and making a lot more room for you and your followers.


Please hang pictures ... and decorate it up while you have the chance

As we might be back tomorrow.


In a way it's funny - because the super aggressive and the super conservative are now going head to head.

 

[alevin]

It was either Coolhand or Bullitt a short while back, who mentioned some really sharp traders out there consider TSPtalkers to be the contrarian indicators-as in, we are the novices who screw up and jump the wrong way wrong time. I've been wondering ever since, who those sharp traders might be. I now know who one of them is, only I'm not sure he interprets the results of our Sentiment Poll the same way we do, based on what he said today:

A direct quote from Atilla DeMaray at Xtrends today ....

If we are in the final stages...

If SPX is in the last 100-150 points of this cyclical bear market which I think it is, then it will sell off under extremely bearish sentiment. ...

Despite the fact that several other measures like ...,...,..and TSP polls, do not exhibit extreme bearish sentiment yet, they should hit extreme levels near the very end as these data represent the less educated/trained market participants.

I don't think he gets it that the "extreme bearish sentiment" ratio in our sentiment survey is precisely a buy signal for us, the same as it is for him. [unless I misunderstood him, and he really means our sentiment survey ratio will go ultra-bullish soon and end up giving us an extreme sell signal?] How do other folks read the above comment?

 

[XL-entLady]

I don't think he gets it that the "extreme bearish sentiment" ratio in our sentiment survey is precisely a buy signal for us, the same as it is for him. ... How do other folks read the above comment?

I read it, and smiled. He can call us 'dumb money' if he wants to. There are days I would certainly agree with him. :toung: I think, like you do, that maybe he doesn't realize the way our sentiment indicators work. But the biggest thing I think about him is that so many people are following his trades now that his posted trades are becoming a market mover. JMHO.

Lady

 

[Guest2]

-O-O-O-O-O-O----OOO----O---O--O- DRIVE BY HELLO ----> :toung:

 

[alevin]

I truly don't mind being a trend-follower. I like to see something more stable developing before I start wading in w/TSP funds, even if I miss the first several percent. So I will wait for something more confirmatory (is that a word?), given the candlestick situation which calls for next day confirmation:

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs83.asp

 

[Guest2]

I truly don't mind being a trend-follower. I like to see something more stable developing before I start wading in w/TSP funds, even if I miss the first several percent. So I will wait for something more confirmatory (is that a word?), given the candlestick situation which calls for next day confirmation:http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs83.asp

Love the website, Thanks ! Like I posted in my thread, we haven't seen a
back-to-back rally since early February and that was in the 2% range. I'm
in full agreement and confirmation is necessary. For me, I was in "up to my
eye balls" today (in the I-Fund). I took 60% off the table, confirmation means
40% will continue to work for me. Good Luck and Your The Best !

 

[alevin]

Still tucked into my hidey hole in G, but ventured forth a tidbit in brokerage account this morning, based on certain buy-confirm signals at Americanbulls.com Friday. Will see how they fare.

Waiting for turn signals in dow and spx coming up shortly (predicted by better traders than me), before I take further action.

 

[Birchtree]

The higher we go the higher we are going to go. This rally could turn out to be a big V parabolic move because there is just such high liquidity levels on the sidelines. The greater risk is being out - not in.

 

[alevin]

Had dinner with several coworker friends last night. Tried to keep the conversation upbeat and off work, but ya know, kinda hard to ignore the pink elephant in the room. Talk swung around to local businesses closing doors, big deal in a small town, retirement, TSP, you know the drill. These are folks who've ridden the whole ride down, people with M.Sci. and PhDs. in statistics among other things. One declared they thought it the patriotic thing to do to stay invested through the whole mess, even tho they are currently trying to save for college for a kid next year ($80K-almost as much as my house cost!) Folks with not nearly as much as Birch has in the bank.

They are rooting for Jon Stewart ripping Cramer tho, watch Jon nightly, so at least they have some idea of reality, but am afraid they will pay sorely for their disregard of reality the past year and 1/2. People within 10 yrs of retirement-FERS, not CSRS. How many other boomers like them? And they haven't been profligate with credit either, from what I can see, just simply got sold on buy and hold until it was too late to do anything else.

 

[Guest2]

Had dinner with several coworker friends last night. Tried to keep the conversation upbeat and off work, but ya know, kinda hard to ignore the pink elephant in the room. Talk swung around to local businesses closing doors, big deal in a small town, retirement, TSP, you know the drill. These are folks who've ridden the whole ride down, people with M.Sci. and PhDs. in statistics among other things. One declared they thought it the patriotic thing to do to stay invested through the whole mess, even tho they are currently trying to save for college for a kid next year ($80K-almost as much as my house cost!) Folks with not nearly as much as Birch has in the bank.

They are rooting for Jon Stewart ripping Cramer tho, watch Jon nightly, so at least they have some idea of reality, but am afraid they will pay sorely for their disregard of reality the past year and 1/2. People within 10 yrs of retirement-FERS, not CSRS. How many other boomers like them? And they haven't been profligate with credit either, from what I can see, just simply got sold on buy and hold until it was too late to do anything else.

Great little piece Alevin. It hurts to see friends doing what they've always
been taught to do by the TSP. As time moves on, it becomes ever so
clear that attention must be paid throughout ones career. And yes, maybe
a move to safety on the way. Boomers are learning a hard lesson. But to
lose money because it's somehow Pariotic, PhD's and MbA's are going to
waste against reality. Maybe those just entering will fair much better as
were so close to a bottom. Buy and Hold will survive for them, that is until
the next Bear Market and Recession hits them in the wallet.

 

[Steadygain]

Had dinner with several coworker friends last night. Tried to keep the conversation upbeat and off work, but ya know, kinda hard to ignore the pink elephant in the room. Talk swung around to local businesses closing doors, big deal in a small town, retirement, TSP, you know the drill. These are folks who've ridden the whole ride down, people with M.Sci. and PhDs. in statistics among other things. One declared they thought it the patriotic thing to do to stay invested through the whole mess, even tho they are currently trying to save for college for a kid next year ($80K-almost as much as my house cost!) Folks with not nearly as much as Birch has in the bank.

You have such a wonderful heart Alevin. The overwhelming odds are Federal Positions will be adversely dealt with soon and I suspect we'll see a Reduction in Force occur at many facilities.

Now it's absolutely impossible for any of us to not acknowledge businesses folding around us and jobs disappearing.

What you've described is the overwhelming reason I began comming to this site. BIRCH is one of the very few that can afford to B&H - but on the whole that's the worst way to go (at least in my opinion). Had these friends monitored things a little closer and had any clue the extent by which global weakness and toxic waste ruined the economy they may have fled to safety.

The patriotic aspect is HARD to avoid - and I have to admit that's often my feeling when I do go in. But it's not unpatriotic to conserve your life saving investments - and strive to protect and grow what you've accumulated.

I've got friends (and now relatives through marriage) that are out of work - and it hits home a lot harder when you can feel it the way you do.

They are rooting for Jon Stewart ripping Cramer tho, watch Jon nightly, so at least they have some idea of reality, but am afraid they will pay sorely for their disregard of reality the past year and 1/2. People within 10 yrs of retirement-FERS, not CSRS. How many other boomers like them? And they haven't been profligate with credit either, from what I can see, just simply got sold on buy and hold until it was too late to do anything else.

I've been FERS for a little over 6 years - and last year wiped out a huge amount - but fortunately I made quite a bit before that happened. Will probably break even at the end of this year if things continue going well.

I AGREE - at this point Holding On is probably the best thing. It may go down to new lows (and I personally think it will) - but NO ONE knows when the REAL BULL will kick in and staying in Guarantees you'll take in every penny.

I plan to go in fully this summer if things go as I'm expecting - and stay in beginning 8 or 9/09.

The cost of college is a pet peave for me - (health care rates too). I just don't see how they can keep pushing these huge increases year after year when it flys against reality.

Well take care - and you've done outstanding to preserve your capital - VERY SMART MOVE!!

OK - it's off to lunch

 

[Silverbird]

The problem is, if you've already rode it down, jumping now out is probably a bad idea because it "locks in" your losses (UNLESS you already are retired or near it). Will we go lower than November? Possibly, even probably. But that's not the question, the question is if you are stuck in now, how long can you have to wait, because even if the stock market never reaches the heights of 2006 again, IF you can wait, you can at least get something beyond the basement prices of today.

So perhaps it's the brave words of unhappy people. I think most know it's late in the game to bail, the bear has already raided the picnic basket.

 

[alevin]

Maybe those just entering will fair much better as were so close to a bottom. Buy and Hold will survive for them, that is until the next Bear Market and Recession hits them in the wallet.

Yah, had THAT conversation with one of the few young guys in our office over a work potluck lunch yesterday, he was surrounded by boomers. Told him the b&H rules he's currently following may need to be reconsidered when he reaches mid-career and the next big one hits.

As for the boomer friends, yes, it's more risky for them to bail at this point, we all agreed on that one-sad but true (I hope). some charts show us potentially only halfway through this epic generational reset.