350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

above was posted yesterday........I had a feeling of a sell-off today;however, not this much. Glad I am in the G today!! Tomorrow,I feel you will have a rally to the upside,buyers will step up on this mess today. I am 100% in S tomorrow...fwiw Now I am beating the markets across the board>>>>

While you're patting yourself on the back, please realize that many on this board are trying to swallow todays lose.

 

[Wheels]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Back in May '06, the USD/YEN fell about 5% before the Nikkei really started selling. Japan was selling off 2-3 days before the USM started selling on May 10th. Today, the USD/YEN fell about 2.3%.

Exactly, that should cushion a large part of the blow. It may even stave off an FV. How much of the fall came after noon?

 

[Sunnyskies]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

While you're patting yourself on the back, please realize that many on this board are trying to swallow todays lose.

Yep -- I'm unsure what to do. As of today, I'm 50S 50I. I was busy this morning and didn't check what was going on. I figure all I can do is move to the G or F now (which won't take effect until tomorrow COB). The other option is to stay where I am and wait for it to climb out of the hole. That could take many weeks. Any thoughts for those of us who stayed too long..

 

[SkyPilot]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

above was posted yesterday........I had a feeling of a sell-off today;however, not this much. Glad I am in the G today!! Tomorrow,I feel you will have a rally to the upside,buyers will step up on this mess today. I am 100% in S tomorrow...fwiw Now I am beating the markets across the board>>>>

Glad for your success, however, a modicum of humility will go far with those who have taken a rather substantial hit today...

 

[James48843]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

While you're patting yourself on the back, please realize that many on this board are trying to swallow todays losses.

Yeh. what he said.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Exactly, that should cushion a large part of the blow. It may even stave off an FV. How much of the fall came after noon?

Unfortunately, it does not work that way. It's all the currencies' combined fall, not just the USD/YEN. The dollar will not stave off a -FV today.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

350z, how much -FV are we looking at? Have you done any calculations, yet?

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Yep -- I'm unsure what to do. As of today, I'm 50S 50I. I was busy this morning and didn't check what was going on. I figure all I can do is move to the G or F now (which won't take effect until tomorrow COB). The other option is to stay where I am and wait for it to climb out of the hole. That could take many weeks. Any thoughts for those of us who stayed too long..

I will be watching for a rise in the dollar against the Yen on good hard economic numbers. More bad economic news will cause further rise in the Yen and more unwinding of the Yen carry trade, which would mean more selling to come.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Yeah, it's going to be a big -FV. I'm expecting a -FV of at least 25 cents. It'll probably be more.

Lets take bets on how big the Nikkei will be down tonight. :nuts:

p.s. My laughters are filled with tears. Nearly 2 months of excellent work goes down the drain in 1 freaking day. I'm gonna go cry some more.

Never mind, found it!

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

350z, how much -FV are we looking at? Have you done any calculations, yet?

Never mind, found it!

At minimum, -36 FV.
At maximum, -47 FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

At minimum, -36 FV.
At maximum, -47 FV.

Dang, the scary part is, it might not even be enough to stave off the OSM's onlaught tonight.

 

[12%ayear]

You are going to have to excuse me if I can

across as patting myself on the back. I am sorry to anyone to took a hit today.

 

[12%ayear]

I see a rally tomorrow, today seemed like a buying

opp. to enter the markets. The marketmakers will move it up tomorrow. It might be a deadcat bounce for a day only. The US markets will bring it back up. This will help the overseas markets for Thursday(Asian Markets). My game plan is to watch tomorrow and if everything goes as planned, enter the I Fund for Thursday.

 

[mailmanusa]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I sat in the G for 6 days then bought C yesterday. Dang I wish I woulda waited just one more day. Days like today make me go to the calculator to evaluate my performance since begining to trade my TSP. My equasion looks like this today. Including todays loss, 70 days total trading with a total earning of 7.43%. 7.43 / 70 = .106 x 250 total trading days = 26.53% if performance were averaged over a year. This is my silly way of licking my wounds on days like today.

 

[Wheels]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Unfortunately, it does not work that way. It's all the currencies' combined fall, not just the USD/YEN. The dollar will not stave off a -FV today.

I realize that. I was thinking specifically of the fall coming in Japan tonight. That loss will be softened by the dollar's fall against the yen. Unless it's already been priced in. That's why I was curious when the dollar/yen fall took place.

If you look at the EAFE chart on MSCI's website, you will see plenty of days where the Far East portion in U.S. dollars is higher than in local currency, but the total EAFE is lower in U.S. dollars than in local currency (or vice versa)

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

I realize that. I was thinking specifically of the fall coming in Japan tonight. That loss will be softened by the dollar's fall against the yen. Unless it's already been priced in. That's why I was curious when the dollar/yen fall took place.

Oops! I misunderstood you question. The fall in the USD/YEN for tomorrow is about .5% or worth about 2-3 cents.

 

[12%ayear]

posted on 2-15

here is a good question 11999 or 13000 which first? Everyone thinks 13,000 because it very close,but Ihave a feeling 11999.

I thought that based upon the bullish commentaries on CNBC. They are the worst. When they place the bells and whistles on the screen,it tells me to be careful.

 

[Wheels]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Oops! I misunderstood you question. The fall in the USD/YEN for tomorrow is about .5% or worth about 2-3 cents.

That ain't gonna cushion anything!!

 

[BoBmArLeY753]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

Hello all. Long time reader, first time poster. Thanks to everyone who contributes to this thread...following it has allowed me (and I'm sure many others) to make more informed decisions. Having said that, my decision to stay 50S/50I on Monday was not one of them .

Good luck to everyone from this point forward, and let's figure out how to make some money (back).

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: 350Z's I Fund Thread-Feb07

What made you decide to sign up?
What was it that gave you that little push to do it?

And welcome. You found the best thread in this place.

Sorry, I had to call again. Couldn't believe it the first time.

G--0
F+.05
C-.55
S-.65
I-.74


This equates to a .44 to .45 cent -FV?