XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

... In my real world TSP account I'm going to move 5% more into the I Fund. So by COB today I'll be 65% G, 5% in each of C and S, and 25% I Fund.

Lady

I HATE that we've gone up so much today. That means that we'll probably get some profit taking tomorrow for "Turn-around Tuesday." So I'm going to cancel the IFT I was going to make today. I'll do it tomorrow and try to buy in lower.

We'll probably continue up tomorrow and it will cost me even more. :cheesy:

Lady

 

[nnuut]

I HATE that we've gone up so much today. That means that we'll probably get some profit taking tomorrow for "Turn-around Tuesday." So I'm going to cancel the IFT I was going to make today. I'll do it tomorrow and try to buy in lower.

We'll probably continue up tomorrow and it will cost me even more. :cheesy:

Lady

This up day would be conformation of a breakout through resistance, if it holds? I'm doing the same thing, the majority of times it's the best thing to do and a majority is good enough for me.

 

[Guest2]

I HATE that we've gone up so much today. That means that we'll probably get some profit taking tomorrow for "Turn-around Tuesday." So I'm going to cancel the IFT I was going to make today. I'll do it tomorrow and try to buy in lower.

We'll probably continue up tomorrow and it will cost me even more. :cheesy:

Lady

I decided that waiting for a dip to get in may become too costly. But if I
see a half way descent profit, my stay will be short term. :embarrest:

 

[XL-entLady]

This up day would be conformation of a breakout through resistance, if it holds? I'm doing the same thing, the majority of times it's the best thing to do and a majority is good enough for me.

Thanks for the input, Norm. It makes me feel better about the decision!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

I decided that waiting for a dip to get in may become too costly. But if I
see a half way descent profit, my stay will be short term. :embarrest:

SB! So good to seeing you are feeling well enough to post!! Giant happy face for the visit!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

June 1, 2009, Zacks Roundtable discussion is entitled, "New Highs, What's Next?"


Ideas from the video: The market is going to go a bit higher, suck more people in, and then the bear trap springs and we retreat back to 8,000 in the Dow. A lot of the stimulus money is going to be hitting the economy very soon so there is still more upside to the current market.

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/11066/New+Highs...What's+Next?

Lady

 

[Scribbler]

Here is a daily chart of our last recession with the 200 day moving average.

Touching the 200-dma is not the sign of strength that most people would have you believe.

 

[XL-entLady]

Here is a daily chart of our last recession with the 200 day moving average.

Touching the 200-dma is not the sign of strength that most people would have you believe.

Scribbler, I'm honored by your visit! Do you have any thoughts on the Coppock Curve that we're reading so much about on blogs recently?

For example, yesterday's Traders Narrative contained the following:

"While we were in the thick of the 2008 bear market, I looked ahead and provided a road map for the conditions of a new bull market. Among them was the Coppock Guide.

At the beginning of the year I provided a hypothetical projection to demonstrate that the stock market would have to go on one hell of a bullish rampage to pull the Coppock Curve up from its death spiral. A few months later, a rally that almost no one foresaw took us 40% higher.

Then at the beginning of May, I reiterated that a Coppock buy signal would be arriving by the end of the month, as long as the market held it together and didn’t fall any further.

Well, we are finally here and the Coppock guide has provided a definitive signal by turning up - this is the buy signal that we had been anticipating:

I know, I know, it is impossible to see on the chart but believe me, it is there. To see a zoomed in view of the chart, check out the previous links. The S&P 500 Coppock Curve stopped going deeper into negative and actually increased from -417 at the end of April to -409 at the end of May 2009. All it would have taken was a one point increase but we got 8 points.

Now that we have a signal, what does it mean?

Well, obviously, it means we have the wind at our backs. The Coppock Guide has been a reliable indicator of the long term market trend. But, like everything else, it isn’t full proof - as you can see from the false signals. So with that in mind, here are three major observations:

First: The signal isn’t just for one index or market. We are seeing the Coppock Curves for many different markets around the world turn up at the same time. The Australian All Ordinaries, the Nikkei, the FTSE and all 3 major US market indexes: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial and the Nasdaq.
While most of the signals are occurring concurrently, some like the (Chinese) Shanghai market and the Nikkei gave signals last month. Check out all the major world markets to see how just how much confirmation we are getting from them.

Second: Valid signals are those that turn up from under the zero line. And historically, the deeper the level at which the signal arrives, the more strength the following bull market has. This most recent signal is coming from a deeply oversold level - the most since 1938 (-417 to -400) and even further, 1932 (-643 to -616).

Of course, that doesn’t mean that from now on the market has only one direction - up! Based on the sentiment and technicals covered before (Wedge Formation), I think it is probable that we will head down, but won’t break the previous low. This will allow for the long term moving average to flatten out and begin to support, rather than hinder prices from going higher.

Third: Although the Coppock Curve has given its share of false signals, we haven’t seen any occur when the metric has curled up from such a deeply negative level. There are very few examples of this, so it is difficult to extrapolate a rule but so far, this has been the case."

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

I know that fundamentals are lousy. I know that this market is being manipulated like crazy. But I also know that only price pays. In my real world TSP account I'm going to move 5% more into the I Fund. So by COB today I'll be 65% G, 5% in each of C and S, and 25% I Fund.

Lady

I HATE that we've gone up so much today. That means that we'll probably get some profit taking tomorrow for "Turn-around Tuesday." So I'm going to cancel the IFT I was going to make today. I'll do it tomorrow and try to buy in lower.

We'll probably continue up tomorrow and it will cost me even more. :cheesy:

Lady

I'm going to make the IFT today because the market appears to be down. Wish I didn't have to decide by noon EDT, but it is what it is.

Lady

 

[Scribbler]

Lady,

It seems to be one of these indicators that no one ever hears about until it supports whatever view is being offered. I never heard of it until yesterday. Maybe it will work, maybe it won't. I can't use some esoteric metric to justify investment.

Either way, it is certainly outside of my area of competence.

 

[XL-entLady]

Lady,

It seems to be one of these indicators that no one ever hears about until it supports whatever view is being offered. I never heard of it until yesterday. Maybe it will work, maybe it won't. I can't use some esoteric metric to justify investment.

Either way, it is certainly outside of my area of competence.

Thanks for your input. I hadn't heard of the indicator until this week either, but then I've never heard of a lot of stuff I should have. If you haven't heard of it either, that means something to me.

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

"Across multiple markets and in the Dow, there appears to be nothing unique about the Coppock Curve to indicate the onset of a new bull market."

http://safehaven.com/article-13500.htm

I think many investors are waiting on the Dow Theory to flash a long term buy signal - and it's just around the next corner or valley.

 

[JTH]

Ha ha, I was watching Fast Money when they mentioned the Coppock Curve. Everyone is thinking WTF is that?

Here is what the Coppock Curve really is. It's a replacement term for the "green shoots." They can't seem to find a rational explanation for why the market hasn't pulled back. The Coppock Curve is a desperate grab of straws. Whatever, I could care less as long as we make money.

 

[luv2read]

Lady,

Just dropping in to say hi and woot rally! Got legs yet?

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm going to make the IFT today because the market appears to be down. Wish I didn't have to decide by noon EDT, but it is what it is.

Lady

So today is finally going to give us that down day that I wanted yesterday. My IFT went through yesterday. Should have waited one more day. Figures! I've got to remember that we can't be day traders and this is for the long haul. The stimulus money is barely starting to hit the streets so, even though a correction is overdue, we should still go up for a while in the intermediate term.

I should have waited until today to buy more but I think buying the dips is still the right thing to do right now. However that's just my 2 cents,

Lady

 

[CapeChem]

same here lady......I knew in my heart there would be a down day for me to buy back in......today is what i envisioned....yesterday is when i acted.....So I will take a beating today gladly if we hit 1000 during this rally.

 

[RonUSPSretired]

So today is finally going to give us that down day that I wanted yesterday. My IFT went through yesterday. Should have waited one more day. Figures! I've got to remember that we can't be day traders and this is for the long haul. The stimulus money is barely starting to hit the streets so, even though a correction is overdue, we should still go up for a while in the intermediate term.

I should have waited until today to buy more but I think buying the dips is still the right thing to do right now. However that's just my 2 cents,

Lady

I did the same thing 60G,7C,8S,25I. Oh well, shoulda-woulda- coulda.:nuts:

 

[nnuut]

Me TOO, but it's not over until it's over. Should have known looking at the channels, but it could have been a breakout above the upper Bollinger band. So I'm NOT a great timer, so what?

 

[coolhand]

Solid tops are usually made over a period of time. The resiliency of the current uptrend seems to be bearing this out and is why I suspect the SS sell signals were early this time. It's still a very iffy situation that could go either way, but two IFTs a month, a "long in the tooth" rally, and two SS sell signals have made me decidedly conservative.

 

[XL-entLady]

Yeah, I hear you guys, I really do! :nuts: We've all just got to remember that we can't be day traders, we've got to focus on weekly and monthly timeframes.

I'm going to try to keep the moving averages more in my decisions like I used to. I've been so wrapped up in learning how to trade ETFs the last 6 months or so that I've let my TSP decisions slide. Not good. By paying attention to the trend I was able to escape the blood bath last fall, but by NOT paying attention to the trend I missed most of the rally since March. :embarrest:

From now on the moving average is going to be one of my closest friends! :laugh:

Lady