XL-entLady's Account Talk

[RonUSPSretired]

Brian & Lady, on the subject of not being negative, you might want to check this guy out. He's a consultant who puts out a weekly news letter on positive thinking and action. I found him quite by accident. In the news letter section, check out "20 Ways to get Mentally Tough & A Can of Positive Energy" His site is http://www.jongordon.com/

thanks lady for tagging my post here, i know alot of people read your thread because you are so positive and keep good things going here. I try to do the same thing, and anything that can be looked at as gloating on my thread can be simply explained as sheer exitement that something is going well for me

thanks again!

Brian

 

[XL-entLady]

Zacks latest video (5/19/2009) is a discussion of whether the market has lost steam or not. Points:

- All data shows that economy is getting worse at a slower rate, but it is still getting worse.
- Every time the market looks like it is truly losing steam it finds a way to go up instead.
- The current rally is on declining volume, which is a concern, but only price pays.
- Earnings estimates have stabilized, so if earnings estimates are realistic then the market itself has stabilized.
- Going forward, we could be building a base to retest October highs. (Opposite view is that there is still a lot that could go wrong.) But next pullback could be the buying opportunity that will never come again to our generation!

http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=46085&channel=1341

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

NARFE magazine's June issue contained an excellent article entitled, "Bear Market Survival Tips". I tried to find the article online to share it with you, but was unsuccessful. So I'll keyboard in a few excerpts:

"This time is not different. Yes, we are in quite the pickle. But try to recall what it felt like to live through some other tough, uncertain and frightening times. Take, for example, the early 1970s - when war engulfed the Middle East, oil prices suddenly tripled, inflation ran rampant, and the vice president and president resigned. Over the course of 700 days, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 45 percent, which until then had been the greatest decline since the Great Depression....

...Consider the following news items:
- "There is no question that this is the worst economic time since the Great Depression."
- "The banking industry has plunged to its lowest point since the Great Depression."
- "Forecasts for a weak recovery suggest this year will be the worst for the economy since the Great Depression."

These quotes are from newspapers printed during the recession of 1990 and 1991, not today. I'm not trying to minimize the current crisis, but we must understand that the media sensationalizes.

Understand when markets bottom. In order to recognize when a bottom is near, it's important to remember that the market is forward-looking and will bottom at the height of uncertainty and amid a great deal of speculation...In past recessions, the market typically turned around about halfway through the recession. As investment guru Jeremy Grantham of GMO puts it, "Be aware that the market does not turn when it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before."

Taking into consideration the predictive nature of the market, we can use other clues that may help us conclude that a bottom is near. For example:

- Bears begin to turn bullish: After the markets experience severe declines, you will eventually begin to hear previous bears begin to turn into bulls. Grantham and Steve Leuthold, two investment gurus whom I respect, are just two such bears turned bulls.

- Economic indicators: There will be an ever so slight improvement in the economic reports. Last March, we had no reports to indicate that things were good, but we had several with readings "not as bad as expected."

- Market indicators: There are metrics that can help us determine if there is value in the markets. One is Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which measures how expensive stocks are. It started the year at 15 times earnings and dropped below 12 during the March lows. These are levels seen very near the bottoms of past bear markets and levels from which very good multi-year returns were produced.

While none of these metrics will precisely pinpoint a bottom, when considered collectively, they can be a good basis for deciding that a bottom is near....."

The article goes on to stress that you won't catch the low, and that you should have an investment plan and stick to it.

All in all, I thought it was an excellent article! (Thanks again for pointing me to NARFE, CB!)

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Favorite blogs from today's reading:


Know Your Technical Levels & Remain Disciplined

By John C. Lee | May 21, 2009

"The important matter going forward is to make note of all support/resistance levels. Pay particular attention to the 10-day SPX chart shown below. The designated "green zone", located between 897-902, is the strongest and most widely used support/resistance area for the past 10 days. When/If the lower band is broken, it is unknown how far the market could correct.

​

The 1-month chart shows a possible symmetrical triangulation and a possible secondary support area near 885. The 7-month chart clears shows that the market closed above the 15-day MA (901). We can expect to see additional support at the 20-day MA (891), which is also the location of the 2-month+ lower channel line. Final support is indicated at 875. All of this is if the market declines.

​

​

As for upside, there first needs to be a breakout above 922, then 930. After this, the market has space to move to the 200-day MA (940). Since no one knows what will happen for sure, you should hedge your portfolio going forward, regardless of what your personal opinions are. The market doesn't care what you think."


http://www.greenfaucet.com/blogs/the-exception

Lady

 

[CapeChem]

Lady...the last line of the post says "you should hedge your portfolio going forward, regardless of what your personal opinions are"......what would this mean in TSP terms.

 

[XL-entLady]

We can't hedge in the TSP by buying inverse funds (going short) so if the S&P starts declining to the lower levels Lee mentions in his posts, our only option is G Fund.

So in TSP terms, hedging would mean putting some in G Fund rather than having it all in C or S funds. (I Fund is a different animal, because its price is also affected by the dollar.)

Lady

 

[KevinD]

I was thinking F was the hedge and G was the same as cash.

I'm having a hard time figuring the F fund out...

 

[Birchtree]

Bonds are always a negative call - that's why I never bother with them.

 

[CapeChem]

Thank you

 

[Bullitt]

I wonder how much that money parked in the G Fund is being loaned to out companies like Morgan Stanley, BAC and Citi for? 5 or 6% maybe?

 

[XL-entLady]

Correction Is Mild So Far
by Carl Swenlin
May 22, 2009


"Last week we saw that a correction had begun when the price index broke down from an ascending wedge formation. When support is violated, the next thing to expect is for price to snap back up toward the line, which is now resistance. As you can see, that is exactly what happened this week with a short rally that failed later in the week.


What we are left with at this point is a short consolidation with a short-term double top and neckline support at about 880 on the S&P 500. With the market coming off extremely overbought medium-term conditions, it would be reasonable to have expected a more energetic decline. The fact that the correction has so far taken the form of a sideways consolidation, tells us that the medium-term market bias is still bullish.

That is not to say things can't get worse in a big hurry, but so far the market is holding up pretty well.

Bottom Line: The predominant feature on the chart is still the developing reverse head and shoulders formation. We are not really any closer to it than we were last week -- we still need a correction to about 800 to form a credible right shoulder. I think we could see this happen in the next several weeks."


http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090522_cc.html

Lady

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Lady,

Do you thing all the shorts are rung out, since no more large covering in cards, the down could be Huge?

 

[XL-entLady]

Lady,

Do you thing all the shorts are rung out, since no more large covering in cards, the down could be Huge?

I have no clue. Really no clue. The only thing I know is that the market will do whatever takes the most money from the most people.

In my TSP I'm currently about 70% G, 20% I, and 5% each in C and S. But I think the dollar is going to do a dead cat bounce for a few days, which will make it tough on I Fund. But that is just a WAG-method guess on my part. This market is making me nuts. In fact, I'm peeling myself away from the markets for a few days.

I'm going to go play in the wilderness the rest of the week. Tall pines, beautiful vistas. No markets. Maybe the bulls and bears will have decided who is on control by the time I get back.

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

CNN Money's lead article this morning:

Economists: Recession to end in 2009

A recovery in the second half of this year will be 'moderate,' according to a report from the National Association for Business Economics.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The end of the recession is in sight, according to a new survey of leading economists.
While the economy is showing signs of stabilizing, the recovery will be more moderate than is typical following a severe downturn, said the National Association for Business Economics Outlook in a report released Wednesday.

The panel of 45 economists said it expects economic growth will rebound in the second half of 2009. However, the group still expects to see a decline in second-quarter economic activity.

"The good news is that the NABE panel expects economic growth to turn positive in the second half of this year, with the pace of job losses narrowing sharply over the remainder of this year and employment turning up in early 2010," said NABE president Chris Varvares in a written statement.

Almost three out of four survey respondents expect the recession will end by the third quarter of 2009, the report said.

But 19% predicted that a turnaround won't come until the fourth quarter, and 7% said it may not come until early 2010. None of the panelists expected the recession to continue past the first quarter of next year.

GDP: The report predicted a 1.8% decline in real GDP in the second quarter of 2009, bringing the total year-to-date decrease to 3.7%. That's the biggest drop since 1957-1958, the report said.

Still, "a modest second-half rebound in real GDP is expected," the report said, with economic growth turning positive in the third quarter. Real GDP growth over the second half of 2009 is expected to average 1.2%, which is well below average, the report said.

"Growth in 2010 is slated for a return to near its historical trend," the report said, predicting a 2.7% year-over-year increase. The NABE's February outlook had predicted a 3.1% uptick.

Jobs: The panel forecast a total of 4.5 million jobs lost in 2009, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8%. Modest gains in 2010 will reduce the rate to 9.3% by year's end, the report predicted.

Separate reports this month showed the unemployment rate is currently down in 21 states and stands at 8.9% nationally.

Deficit: Government spending "will provide vital support to the economy," and will be the only expenditure sector to grow in 2009, the report said.
But that spending will help push the federal deficit to a record-high $1.7 trillion in the 2009 fiscal year, before falling slightly to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2010.

Housing: New and existing home sales are close to their lows, with 72% of NABE panelists expecting sales to hit bottom by the middle of 2009.More than 60% of those surveyed said housing starts would also bottom out at the same time.

The panelists were split on the issue of when home prices will hit their lows: 30% said it would happen by the third quarter of 2009; 30% said the fourth quarter; and 40% said declines will continue into 2010 or later. The median prediction is that home prices will rise 1% in 2010, the report said.

Spending: Widespread job losses and weak income growth have reduced consumer spending and boosted the personal savings rate, the report said. The savings rate has seen two consecutive quarters of sharp increases, holding above 4% through March. More than 70% of the panelists expect "more thrifty behavior is here to stay, at least for the next five years," the report said.

Credit: Obtaining long-term and short-term financing is still difficult, which poses a risk to the economy,but 90% of respondents said actions from the Federal Reserve have helped to ease the credit crunch.

Five-year outlook: More than half of the NABE economists said they expected potential growth of the U.S. economy over the next five years to be between 2% and 2.5%; 37% of respondents forecast growth between 2.5% and 3%, while 7% of the panelists said growth will be higher than 3%.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/27/news/economy/NABE_recovery_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2009052703


Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

One more post and then I'm headed for the mountains. But I wanted to share this 5/26/09 video from Zacks. "V or W Shaped Recovery?"


http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=46186&channel=1341

Lady

 

[Medic72]

Thanks Lady, go have you some fun in dem hills! I sure wish i was going.....been about 1.5 years since i was able to do some survival camping, miss miss miss it so bad.

Anyway be careful up there and have fun! Ill come in and Pack ya out if ya need some help

 

[Steadygain]

I have no clue. Really no clue.

Hi Lady - it's been awhile since I stopped by and was just saying hi.

I noticed this -- --- and my first thought was NO WAY

You're absolutely the last one I'd ever believe that from

At the very least you have 'a clue' - that would be the minimum for you and I don't care what we're taking about.

You must have just woken from a hard nap when you wrote that.

I'm going to go play in the wilderness the rest of the week. Tall pines, beautiful vistas. No markets. .

Lady

That's wonderful Lady - I hope the weather is perfect and you really can forget all the Market stuff.

My little crowd is heading to the Boundry Waters to canoe and camp and go here and there in a few more days. It's just one of many destinations - but we're going to try to spread it out and relax.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks Lady, go have you some fun in dem hills! I sure wish i was going.....been about 1.5 years since i was able to do some survival camping, miss miss miss it so bad.

Anyway be careful up there and have fun! Ill come in and Pack ya out if ya need some help

Medic, thanks for the rescue offer but I made it back from the tall pines under my own power. :cheesy: My "survival camping" wasn't too strenuous. We were in our toyhauler trailer. I'm not into roughing it. :embarrest:

And looking at what certain commodities did while I was gone, I wished yet again that our G Fund meant we were invested in gold rather than in government bonds!

Anyway, glad to be back on the MB.

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Here is a chart that Market Rewind publishes every weekend. It dissects exchange traded funds. Note the "10-Month" column and its associated ranking among all listed ETF sectors. The ETFs that correspond to our TSP funds are SPY for our C Fund, ranked 11th; IWM for our S Fund, ranked 13th; and EFA for our I Fund, ranked 4th.

And regarding our C Fund, the column noted the following:

"It was another choppy but positive week for equities with the S&P500 (SPY) gaining an impressive +3.9% during the holiday-shortened week. This move put the index well above its simple 10-month moving average for the first time in nearly a year (although it remains just slightly below its 200-day)."

​

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)​

It was interesting to me (as one who follows ETFs) that the chart shows the highest risk/reward ratio is given strongly to precious metals, with the energy sector a distant second.

http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

....In my TSP I'm currently about 70% G, 20% I, and 5% each in C and S. ....

I know that fundamentals are lousy. I know that this market is being manipulated like crazy. But I also know that only price pays. In my real world TSP account I'm going to move 5% more into the I Fund. So by COB today I'll be 65% G, 5% in each of C and S, and 25% I Fund.

Lady