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XL-entLady's Account Talk
- Thread starter XL-entLady
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XL-entLady
Well-known member
JTH
Well-known member
You tell us, J. You're the chart master!
Lady
Thanks but it's more like chart addict...
The funny thing is that this week any of us could have bought any number of S&P 500 stocks and the odds are very high that we'd make money. THe SPXA50, SPXA150, & SPXA200 are all making and maintianing gains and are well above their respective 20SMAs
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Hi Bullitt, I'm honored by your visit. Yes, we did have that breakdown in April and then we started marching right back up the channel. Let's hope we keep on keepin' on!
Lady
Bullitt
Well-known member
I kind of like Carl's outcome. He's been pretty spot on with the technical analysis from day one of the onslaught.
I really don't think this thing is over (the cyclical bull that is). There's a lot of folk out there waiting for the pullback, but I'm going to use it as an opportunity to add instead of trying to time a quick in and out with SDS.
I really don't think this thing is over (the cyclical bull that is). There's a lot of folk out there waiting for the pullback, but I'm going to use it as an opportunity to add instead of trying to time a quick in and out with SDS.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Interesting article by Peter Schiff, with an interesting view on the global economy as it is moving forward. Pschiffdicpal, you've probably already read it, huh! For me, the most important part was:
"...As always, the bulls fail to understand that investors can lose wealth even as nominal stock prices rise. As a corollary, the bearish case is not discredited by rising stock prices. While there are some bears that mistakenly cling to the idea that deflation will cause the dollar to rise, those of us in the inflation camp understand that the opposite will occur.
In the meantime, stocks are not rising because the long-term fundamentals of our economy are improving. If anything, the rise in global stock prices is due to investors realizing that cash is even riskier then stocks. The massive inflation that is the source of the stimulus is essentially punishment for those holding cash. To preserve purchasing power, investors must seek alternative stores of value, such as common stock.
It is important to point out that despite an impressive rally, U.S. stocks have substantially underperformed foreign stocks. In the past two months, while the Dow Jones has risen 30%, the Hang Seng and the German DAX have risen by over 50% in U.S. dollars. Commodity prices are also rising, with oil hitting a five-month high. And gold is shining as well, with the HUI index of gold stocks up 30% during the past two months, and 2/3 of those gains occurring in the past month. If this rally really were about improving economic fundamentals, gold stocks would not be among the leaders. Further, during those two months, the U.S. dollar index fell by 7%, with commodity-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars surging 20%.
To me, the relative strength of foreign stocks and currencies indicates that perhaps the global economy is not as impaired as many have feared. It has been my view all along that after the initial shock wears off, the world will be better off - once it no longer subsidizes the American economy. The shrinking U.S. current account deficit is evidence of this trend in action. Renewed strength in foreign stocks and weakness in the dollar may indicate that not only is the world decoupling from the U.S., but benefitting as a result...."
http://safehaven.com/article-13297.htm
Lady
"...As always, the bulls fail to understand that investors can lose wealth even as nominal stock prices rise. As a corollary, the bearish case is not discredited by rising stock prices. While there are some bears that mistakenly cling to the idea that deflation will cause the dollar to rise, those of us in the inflation camp understand that the opposite will occur.
In the meantime, stocks are not rising because the long-term fundamentals of our economy are improving. If anything, the rise in global stock prices is due to investors realizing that cash is even riskier then stocks. The massive inflation that is the source of the stimulus is essentially punishment for those holding cash. To preserve purchasing power, investors must seek alternative stores of value, such as common stock.
It is important to point out that despite an impressive rally, U.S. stocks have substantially underperformed foreign stocks. In the past two months, while the Dow Jones has risen 30%, the Hang Seng and the German DAX have risen by over 50% in U.S. dollars. Commodity prices are also rising, with oil hitting a five-month high. And gold is shining as well, with the HUI index of gold stocks up 30% during the past two months, and 2/3 of those gains occurring in the past month. If this rally really were about improving economic fundamentals, gold stocks would not be among the leaders. Further, during those two months, the U.S. dollar index fell by 7%, with commodity-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars surging 20%.
To me, the relative strength of foreign stocks and currencies indicates that perhaps the global economy is not as impaired as many have feared. It has been my view all along that after the initial shock wears off, the world will be better off - once it no longer subsidizes the American economy. The shrinking U.S. current account deficit is evidence of this trend in action. Renewed strength in foreign stocks and weakness in the dollar may indicate that not only is the world decoupling from the U.S., but benefitting as a result...."
http://safehaven.com/article-13297.htm
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
So far this morning, my favorite reading has been a rather lengthy article on Safe Haven entitled, "Words for the (Investment) Wise for the Week that Was." Here are a couple of quotes from the article that I especially noted. If you have the time, I highly recommend the entire article. It's long and takes some absorbing, but has some great nuggets of information.
"...Two important trend reversals deserve mention, namely US 10-year Treasury Notes having breached their key 200-day moving average, and likewise the US dollar. Treasuries fell out of favor as a result of a poorly received $14 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday, with 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds rising to 3.29% (+17 bps) and 4.27% (+23 bps) respectively on the week. As massive issuance overhangs the sovereign bond market, investors speculated about the Fed's pain threshold for long-term rates. According to Reuters, PIMCO's Bill Gross said: "In order to maintain a 4% agency mortgage rate, the Fed will likely have to step up its daily purchases of Treasuries and focus on the longer end of the curve."
Source: StockCharts.com
As far as the greenback is concerned, Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) said: "I don't think most people understand the importance of the whole dollar, bond, interest rate syndrome. First, the US is creating and spending fiat dollars in the trillions. This wild creation of dollars is putting pressure on the dollar - after all, too much of anything will dilute its value. Dollar down = bonds down."...."
"...Jeremy Grantham's (GMO) take on the stock market outlook is summarized in his recent quarterly newsletter, in which he says: "The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80% probable to me, anyway.) Anticipating this, we should expect a stock market recovery - which normally leads economic recovery by six months, plus or minus two - sometime between two months ago and, say, August, which the astute reader will realize implies that this rally may already be it."..."
http://safehaven.com/article-13306.htm
Lady
"...Two important trend reversals deserve mention, namely US 10-year Treasury Notes having breached their key 200-day moving average, and likewise the US dollar. Treasuries fell out of favor as a result of a poorly received $14 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday, with 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds rising to 3.29% (+17 bps) and 4.27% (+23 bps) respectively on the week. As massive issuance overhangs the sovereign bond market, investors speculated about the Fed's pain threshold for long-term rates. According to Reuters, PIMCO's Bill Gross said: "In order to maintain a 4% agency mortgage rate, the Fed will likely have to step up its daily purchases of Treasuries and focus on the longer end of the curve."
Source: StockCharts.com
As far as the greenback is concerned, Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) said: "I don't think most people understand the importance of the whole dollar, bond, interest rate syndrome. First, the US is creating and spending fiat dollars in the trillions. This wild creation of dollars is putting pressure on the dollar - after all, too much of anything will dilute its value. Dollar down = bonds down."...."
"...Jeremy Grantham's (GMO) take on the stock market outlook is summarized in his recent quarterly newsletter, in which he says: "The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80% probable to me, anyway.) Anticipating this, we should expect a stock market recovery - which normally leads economic recovery by six months, plus or minus two - sometime between two months ago and, say, August, which the astute reader will realize implies that this rally may already be it."..."
http://safehaven.com/article-13306.htm
Lady
Pschiffdicpal
Member
P schiff is good at seeing the 800 pound gorrlla.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
XL-entLady
Well-known member
My 2nd IFT for the month:
40 G, 0 F, 10 C,10 S, 40 I
Lady
40 G, 0 F, 10 C,10 S, 40 I
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
My apologies for not posting my reasons for the IFT at the same time I posted my allocation change. The noon cut-off was staring me in the face.
I made the change because after studying the charts, that's what the technicals seemed to be telling me to do.
My Roth is currently invested 50/50 in two baskets, timber (CUT) and emerging markets (VWO), and the overseas stuff has been doing well. And if the dollar keeps falling that means that any bump up in the foreign markets counts double. And my buddy Coolhand's blog entry this weekend just confirmed my thinking about those overseas markets and thus the I Fund.
I'm always more comfortable when my market opinion matches Coolhand's. Nasa, he's like the Obiwan of the TSP!
The Force is strong with him. :cheesy:Anyway, FWIW, that was my thinking behind my allocation change.
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Feeling a bit wimpy today and was going to log on just long enough to explain my absence. Saw the news about our brother Squale. Counting my blessings and numbering this MB family among them.
Lady
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Just very sporadic PMs from her. We do miss her, don't we ....
{sigh}On a totally separate subject, I just tried to enter an IFT to go back to G Fund. The system is down for maintenance, and I had to click through an "I agree" message that acknowledges CSI funds have risk. Duh.
Lady
Just very sporadic PMs from her. We do miss her, don't we ....
On a totally separate subject, I just tried to enter an IFT to go back to G Fund. The system is down for maintenance, and I had to click through an "I agree" message that acknowledges CSI funds have risk. Duh.
Lady
Thanks Lady. Next time you talk to her say Hi for me.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=45293&channel=1341
Zacks Roundtable on May 11, 2009, was a discussion about the stress tests (we all know they were a joke) and whether to sell in May (bull and bear opinions both, but their bottom line is that the stimulus money hasn't even hit the streets yet so this dip might be a buying opportunity).
Interesting viewing if you have 10 minutes to watch it. When the video screen comes up, in order to get to the correct video you have to click on the correct title. Look for the one entitled, " Buy Stress Tests or Sell in May?".
Lady
Zacks Roundtable on May 11, 2009, was a discussion about the stress tests (we all know they were a joke) and whether to sell in May (bull and bear opinions both, but their bottom line is that the stimulus money hasn't even hit the streets yet so this dip might be a buying opportunity).
Interesting viewing if you have 10 minutes to watch it. When the video screen comes up, in order to get to the correct video you have to click on the correct title. Look for the one entitled, " Buy Stress Tests or Sell in May?".
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Coolhand's SS signals went to a "Sell" yesterday. I've been reading everything I can get my hands on to help decide what to do. It runs the gamut from "the world has ended and we're all going to crash and burn" to "every government in the world is doing a stimulus package and the money hasn't hit the street yet, so buy every dip"! Yeah, not helpful. I so hear that.
It all comes down to the gut. And I hate that we are at this tipping point on Options Expiration week when we all know that Da Boyz are going to screw with the markets.
I'm currently 60% in the markets, with 40% G, 10% C, and 25% each in S and I. I submitted an IFT to pull most of my funds back to G but I'm still vascillating. I could cancel that IFT request and try to ride it out.
Ga-a-a-h! I hate these markets! There needs to be a {tearing your hair out} emoticon!
Lady
It all comes down to the gut. And I hate that we are at this tipping point on Options Expiration week when we all know that Da Boyz are going to screw with the markets.
I'm currently 60% in the markets, with 40% G, 10% C, and 25% each in S and I. I submitted an IFT to pull most of my funds back to G but I'm still vascillating. I could cancel that IFT request and try to ride it out.
Ga-a-a-h! I hate these markets! There needs to be a {tearing your hair out} emoticon!
Lady
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Thanks for the update Lady,
I haven't had time to check Coolhand's SS signal of thread this morning. I'm sitting in G, though I almost moved some into the market Monday, but didn't since I was in Cincy yesterday, with my daughter. Now I'll just continue to hold.
CB
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