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XL-entLady's Account Talk
- Thread starter XL-entLady
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XL-entLady
Well-known member
Yesterday was May Day (happy belated May Day!
) so in honor of my Gaelic grandfather, here is a chuckle in the form of an old Celtic 'blessing':
May those who love us, love us.
And those who don't love us,
May God turn their hearts.
And if He doesn't turn their hearts
May He turn their ankles
So we'll know them by their limping.
:laugh: :laugh:
Lady
) so in honor of my Gaelic grandfather, here is a chuckle in the form of an old Celtic 'blessing':May those who love us, love us.
And those who don't love us,
May God turn their hearts.
And if He doesn't turn their hearts
May He turn their ankles
So we'll know them by their limping.
:laugh: :laugh:
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
I'm already in the Garage because I wasn't sure what the hysteria over swine flue was going to do to the markets. I'm probably going to dip a toe back in when everyone finds out that the sky isn't falling. But I probably am through with the markets in any big way until autumn.
FWIW, and loved your blog post, Bullitt!
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Interesting quote of the day, by Warren Buffett, during Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting:
"...On government action to save economy: "Overall I commend the actions that were taken. To expect perfection from people working 20 hour days and getting hit by new and sometimes bad information - when you’re getting punched from all sides - you’re not gonna do everything perfectly. I think overall they did a very good job…"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134835-top-5-quotes-from-berkshire-s-annual-meeting
Lady
"...On government action to save economy: "Overall I commend the actions that were taken. To expect perfection from people working 20 hour days and getting hit by new and sometimes bad information - when you’re getting punched from all sides - you’re not gonna do everything perfectly. I think overall they did a very good job…"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134835-top-5-quotes-from-berkshire-s-annual-meeting
Lady
Uptrend
Well-known member
BS You can't trust a billionaire because he is looking out for his Berkshire Hathaway interests. Power and money are traded among a few and "we the people" are mushrooms. Look at the way he is pumping Wells Fargo - while he is a max 10% owner (lid specified by gov). Just look at former treasury secretary Paulson and his dealings with BOA -totally corrupt -he should be in jail. And now the new administration is trying to soft peddle the bank stress tests - but when you look at the BKX chart, it is poised for a fall. Who can you believe? Seems like the government is working 20 hours a day to cover up the truth.
hessian
Member
Bullitt, sounds like a good subject to ask to start a MB poll on this!!
Also, just wanted to express a Big Thanks to our xl-entLady for your posts. I haven't always the time to reply/or express apprciation on them, but it has become a habit to review them.
Good stuff, and Well Done!
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Thank you, hessian, that was very kind of you to say! :embarrest:
Lady
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
I post this every week on ETFTalk, but thought there might be some on this MB who will find it of interest as well. So here it is:
ETF Rewind - Week 18 (05/01/09)
(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)
After battling Swine (H1N1) Flu pandemic fears out of the gate, all of the broad indices nevertheless finished the week higher, with the S&P500 (SPY) up +1.4%. As highlighted previously, a number of the more beta-oriented equity indices ultimately finished bullishly above their long-term moving averages, including the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ), Emerging Markets (EEM), Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), and Technology (XLK). All that said, interesting how Utilities led the week (XLU +4.6%)! Among the tracked equity indices, only Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR) fell back ahead of the formal "stress-test" results scheduled for next week Thursday.
Week Nineteen of 2009 features the following earnings and economic calendar, including a Friday jobs report:
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady
ETF Rewind - Week 18 (05/01/09)
(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)After battling Swine (H1N1) Flu pandemic fears out of the gate, all of the broad indices nevertheless finished the week higher, with the S&P500 (SPY) up +1.4%. As highlighted previously, a number of the more beta-oriented equity indices ultimately finished bullishly above their long-term moving averages, including the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ), Emerging Markets (EEM), Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), and Technology (XLK). All that said, interesting how Utilities led the week (XLU +4.6%)! Among the tracked equity indices, only Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR) fell back ahead of the formal "stress-test" results scheduled for next week Thursday.
Week Nineteen of 2009 features the following earnings and economic calendar, including a Friday jobs report:
- Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
- Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar
http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Sell in May?
Bullitt asked if anyone is planning to follow the "sell in May and go away" mantra. I said I am one of those who are planning to be out of the markets this summer, except for a quick pop here and there. Here is why:
"...For a different perspective on time variation of returns, we look at average seasonal returns by decade.
The next chart compares average seasonal returns by decade across the entire sample period. "Sell in May" works well since 1951...."
I got that chart from an article on the CXOAG site back in December. That site is often dry and pedantic, but they never make a statement without backing it up three different ways, with 10 kinds of footnotes. If you'd like to read the whole article, you can find it here:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog12-26-08/
Lady
Bullitt asked if anyone is planning to follow the "sell in May and go away" mantra. I said I am one of those who are planning to be out of the markets this summer, except for a quick pop here and there. Here is why:
"...For a different perspective on time variation of returns, we look at average seasonal returns by decade.
I got that chart from an article on the CXOAG site back in December. That site is often dry and pedantic, but they never make a statement without backing it up three different ways, with 10 kinds of footnotes. If you'd like to read the whole article, you can find it here:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog12-26-08/
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
By far the best post I've found in all my blog reading this morning comes from John C Lee's blog:
"...I received hundreds of questions/e-mails over the past few weeks on a variety of topics. I think I'm going to cover moving averages. The main question was, "what MA's do you use?". That's simple. I layer all of my long charts with the 15, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day MAs. For shorts, I add the 5 and 10 as well. The MA's for the long-term are the 200-day (primary) and the 100-day (secondary). The intermediate-term MA is the 50-day. Short-term MA's are the 15 and 20-day, and the most important for swing trading.
The most ideal situation is when the 15 and 20-day both provide underlying support. What's even better is if the 50 and 100-day MA's also provide underlying support. Right now, in the majority of stocks, the 200-day acts as an initial price target for exit. The 200-day MA is the strongest MA out of the ones mentioned. It defines the long-term trend. The COMP is the only MA that is testing the underbelly of the 200-day. Interestingly, the QQQQ is resting above it. Technically, if something is above the 200-day, it is in bullish territory, so keep an eye on tech.
The MA's also gets rid of headaches and panic attacks. If you know where one of these significant MA's are located, then you know there will be a bounce, at a minimum (in most cases). Conversely, if a stock is approaching a major MA, you know there will likely be a pullback or failure. Besides price, volume, and the basic chart patterns, I've relied primarily on the moving averages to make my trading decisions. I let the MA's make the call. Stop panicking and impulse trading for no good reason. Let the charts make the decision for you."
http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/
Lady
"...I received hundreds of questions/e-mails over the past few weeks on a variety of topics. I think I'm going to cover moving averages. The main question was, "what MA's do you use?". That's simple. I layer all of my long charts with the 15, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day MAs. For shorts, I add the 5 and 10 as well. The MA's for the long-term are the 200-day (primary) and the 100-day (secondary). The intermediate-term MA is the 50-day. Short-term MA's are the 15 and 20-day, and the most important for swing trading.
The most ideal situation is when the 15 and 20-day both provide underlying support. What's even better is if the 50 and 100-day MA's also provide underlying support. Right now, in the majority of stocks, the 200-day acts as an initial price target for exit. The 200-day MA is the strongest MA out of the ones mentioned. It defines the long-term trend. The COMP is the only MA that is testing the underbelly of the 200-day. Interestingly, the QQQQ is resting above it. Technically, if something is above the 200-day, it is in bullish territory, so keep an eye on tech.
The MA's also gets rid of headaches and panic attacks. If you know where one of these significant MA's are located, then you know there will be a bounce, at a minimum (in most cases). Conversely, if a stock is approaching a major MA, you know there will likely be a pullback or failure. Besides price, volume, and the basic chart patterns, I've relied primarily on the moving averages to make my trading decisions. I let the MA's make the call. Stop panicking and impulse trading for no good reason. Let the charts make the decision for you."
http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
My best "reading" this morning is actually a video. Zacks' roundtable video is a discussion of the bull case vs. the bear case going forward.
http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=45805&channel=1341
Lady
http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=45805&channel=1341
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
My favorite article this morning gave me a chuckle in addition to lots of good chart comments. Are you a Peter Sellers fan?
http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/some-things-are-just-too-good-to-pass-up/63325
Lady
http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/some-things-are-just-too-good-to-pass-up/63325
Lady
Silverbird
Well-known member
:worried: Well, they wanted someone who wouldn't spook the market....
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Well, I pulled all my TSP funds into the (G)arage a couple of weeks ago because I wasn't sure what the swine flu was going to do to the markets. It has turned out to be a non-event. The sky didn't fall after all.
Now looking strictly at the charts, that 200 DMA number is beckoning. And half the articles I read are based on "sell in May and go away" and the markets are going to do whatever it takes to make the majority of people wrong.
Based on all of the above, I'm sticking a toe back into the water. Yesterday just before deadline I went 60 G, 8 C, and 16 in each of S and I. I had medical appointments most of the rest of the day, so didn't get my move into the tracker until today.
I don't know how long I'll keep this allocation. I'll let the charts tell me that.
FWIW,
Lady
Now looking strictly at the charts, that 200 DMA number is beckoning. And half the articles I read are based on "sell in May and go away" and the markets are going to do whatever it takes to make the majority of people wrong.
Based on all of the above, I'm sticking a toe back into the water. Yesterday just before deadline I went 60 G, 8 C, and 16 in each of S and I. I had medical appointments most of the rest of the day, so didn't get my move into the tracker until today.
I don't know how long I'll keep this allocation. I'll let the charts tell me that.
FWIW,
Lady
Pschiffdicpal
Member
Well, I pulled all my TSP funds into the (G)arage a couple of weeks ago because I wasn't sure what the swine flu was going to do to the markets. It has turned out to be a non-event. The sky didn't fall after all.
Now looking strictly at the charts, that 200 DMA number is beckoning. And half the articles I read are based on "sell in May and go away" and the markets are going to do whatever it takes to make the majority of people wrong.
Based on all of the above, I'm sticking a toe back into the water. Yesterday just before deadline I went 60 G, 8 C, and 16 in each of S and I. I had medical appointments most of the rest of the day, so didn't get my move into the tracker until today.
I don't know how long I'll keep this allocation. I'll let the charts tell me that.
FWIW,
Lady
good move you should make some coin today, may end lower at close,,some taking off for weekend.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Decisionpoint's Carl Swenlin says that a correction is imminent but should be short and then the upside continues. I hope he's right!
Bearish Ascending Wedge
by Carl Swenlin
May 8, 2009
"An ascending wedge pattern forms when the top of a rising trend channel converges toward the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the channel. It is considered to be bearish because, rain or shine, the price line almost always breaks down through the rising trend line. It is one of the most reliably bearish patterns I know of.
As you can see, there is a clear ascending wedge that has formed on the S&P 500 daily chart, and a price breakdown is virtually guaranteed to occur in a matter of days, if not hours. HOWEVER, "virtually guaranteed" is not the same as 100% guaranteed -- I have seen ascending wedges that resolved to the up side.
Another thing to consider is that, if a break down does take place, the duration and amplitude will probably be short term in nature, because the entire formation only covers about a two-month time span, and it is more shallow than steep. More important is tha fact that the medium-term market behavior has been clearly bullish.
Bottom Line: The ascending wedge pattern on the S&P 500 chart is a failry reliable signal that a short correction is due at any time. While it will make the bears happy at first, I don't think the correction will last more than a few days."
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090508_aw.html
Lady
Bearish Ascending Wedge
by Carl Swenlin
May 8, 2009
"An ascending wedge pattern forms when the top of a rising trend channel converges toward the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the channel. It is considered to be bearish because, rain or shine, the price line almost always breaks down through the rising trend line. It is one of the most reliably bearish patterns I know of.
As you can see, there is a clear ascending wedge that has formed on the S&P 500 daily chart, and a price breakdown is virtually guaranteed to occur in a matter of days, if not hours. HOWEVER, "virtually guaranteed" is not the same as 100% guaranteed -- I have seen ascending wedges that resolved to the up side.
Another thing to consider is that, if a break down does take place, the duration and amplitude will probably be short term in nature, because the entire formation only covers about a two-month time span, and it is more shallow than steep. More important is tha fact that the medium-term market behavior has been clearly bullish.
Bottom Line: The ascending wedge pattern on the S&P 500 chart is a failry reliable signal that a short correction is due at any time. While it will make the bears happy at first, I don't think the correction will last more than a few days."
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090508_aw.html
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
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