XL-entLady's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Thanx for the refresher course.

 

[Steadygain]

Ostrich Investors By Adam Hamilton | April 17, 2009

Lady

Lady,
I've spent most of the last hour reading everything I could about Adam Hamilton and honestly - he is everything I was hoping to find.

His Biography is Excellent

His articles are extensive and he is incredibly brilliant.

On March 6 - He accurately described why it would be difficult to plunge in 'for the Long Run' and why staying in is THE KEY.

Thank you so much!!!

 

[Medic72]

"As this next chart shows, we are likely entering a new cyclical bull within a secular bear. This is a time of great opportunity for investors."

Most Excellent!

 

[Steadygain]

http://www.zealllc.com/2009/bottoms.htm


S&P Bottoms - 3/6/09

Just like back then, today it is easy to be short but sickening to be long. But I learned my expensive lesson on this mindset 6 years ago. When things look the bleakest is exactly when we need to hold our noses and buy. With the parallels between then and now uncanny in many ways, all the ingredients are in place for a monster rally. Since today looks, acts, and feels like an SPX bottom, odds are it is indeed an SPX bottom.

Absolutely amazing !!! This guy is something else.


Have a great weekend everyone !!!

 

[XL-entLady]

Thought for the day:

If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. - Derek Bok

 

[Birchtree]

"Come back Shane". Rolling nickels and dimes at the ETF bowling pins has got to be down right dull. I miss your informational posts while you are away on your gambling trips next door. I'll be patient because I'm sure it will wear off eventually. I apologize ahead of time if I'm being overly presumptious but I'm greedy for your posts. I'm just being chatty Kathy today.

 

[XL-entLady]

"Come back Shane". Rolling nickels and dimes at the ETF bowling pins has got to be down right dull. I miss your informational posts while you are away on your gambling trips next door. I'll be patient because I'm sure it will wear off eventually. I apologize ahead of time if I'm being overly presumptious but I'm greedy for your posts. I'm just being chatty Kathy today.

Ah, Birch, ol' buddy, you really know how to sweet talk a girl! :laugh:

You'll have to excuse my absence for the next few days. I'll be packing tomorrow and then away on a medical trip until next weekend. Hold down the fort for me, okay?

Lady

 

[KevinD]

Lady,
I went to the ETFtalk site, read your PM and failed to record a "sent" message 2 times. Could be technical issues? I only wanted to say thanks for your welcome mat at the site. Best wishes!

Go to usercp>edit options.

In the private message area put a checkmark in the "Save a copy of sent messages in my Sent Items folder by default" box.

 

[XL-entLady]

Go to usercp>edit options.

In the private message area put a checkmark in the "Save a copy of sent messages in my Sent Items folder by default" box.

Thanks, KevinD, for figuring out what the problem was! To misquote a Utah Jazz phrase, "The Mailman delivers again!" :laugh:

And thanks for the PM'ed good wishes. It will be no big deal. Except for the six hours in the MRI tube.

Lady

 

[airlift]

Thanks. I followed your instructions, and I'll be testing it now. Will ask for further help if it doesn't work.

Go to usercp>edit options.

In the private message area put a checkmark in the "Save a copy of sent messages in my Sent Items folder by default" box.

 

[airlift]

Sorry, but it didn't work for me in the ETFPM forum. Tom, please see what you can do at your end to help! Thanks!

 

[KevinD]

Sorry, but it didn't work for me in the ETFPM forum. Tom, please see what you can do at your end to help! Thanks!

It worked for me. <shrugging smilie>

 

[Steadygain]

mi casa es su casa!

On the deepest level, there is nothing that would more accurately describe your character.

Will keep you in my thoughts and prayers this week and I'll never give up the hope that somehow - someday - the pain will go to 1 or 2.

 

[XL-entLady]

Back from my trip and haven't had time to catch up with my MB reading yet. Here's a quick weekend update from one of my favorite bloggers. It has more to do with ETFs than TSP, but it gives a flavor of the markets anyway.

ETF Rewind - Week 17 (04/24/09)

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uzVbkLlVFKM/SIyktihuMjI/AAAAAAAAApw/Gj5HbQcmTHk/s1600-h/rewind[1].gifWe finally saw a pause in the recovery incline, but only by a touch with the S&P500 (SPY) ending the week down just -0.5%. However, the NASDAQ100 was able to post a seventh week of gains at +1.1%, leaving it just -1.0% below its 10-month moving average.
The weekly trade was highly news driven, starting with fresh bank nationalization fears (Deal.com - Stressed Out), followed by a flood of earnings and economic reports, merger and acquisition happenings (Register - Oracle Sun)(NYT - Pepsi Bottling), and ending with the release of the "stress-test" methodology (WSJ - Water Torture). You can see the wide range this put the market through in the RSI charts below.
Other equity indices joining the NASDAQ100 in approaching their long-term averages are Emerging Markets (EEM), Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), and, naturally, Technology (XLK). Although four week recoveries in these sectors have been dwarfed by those of Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (IYR), up +16% and +26% respectively, you can see how far those two have yet to go before moving back into bullish territory.
Week Eighteen of 2009 features another heavy earnings and economic calendar, including a Federal Open Market Committee statement out Wednesday, as follows:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

Looking at Price Index readings for next week, the market remains slightly overbought, particularly in the Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Technology (XLK) spaces. It will be interesting to see how these overbought reading play against strong Relative Strength in these very same areas. On the flip side of the coin, Treasuries (TLT) and the US Dollar (UUP) look relatively oversold. A recipe for rotation on the right news flow? Enjoy Your Weekend!




http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/

Lady

 

[justbizness45]

Good to see you back Lady! Thanks for the update.

 

[airlift]

Lady,
The diificulties I had with ETFtalk are resolved, so I'll be seeing you there also. Have a good day.

 

[XL-entLady]

Birch is going to love the weekly commentary put out by Navellier this week:

"...The best time to invest is four to five months before a recession ends. Assuming that the U.S. economy’s recession will end in the current quarter, it is very clear that March 9th represented the ultimate market low. Despite the impressive rally in many stocks since March 9, the stock market has to back and fill a bit, but we remain confident that aggressive investors should be fully invested at the present time. More conservative investors that like to play it extra safe, should dollar cost average in and be fully invested by no later than November, when the stock market will likely be rallying in anticipation of an improving economic environment in 2010. Please remember that as the cash on the sidelines in money market funds returns to the stock market, which will likely be “sparked” by a good news event, the overall stock market could surge 30% or more, so we have a lot to look forward to as soon as this liquidity event occurs."

http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx

I'm not sure that he is right, although he has a good track record. But I guess with everyone calling for the market to go back down, a contrarian would think that Navellier's comments are spot on. However I'm not going to go in much further than I am right now (10%) until I find out what the flu scare does to the markets.

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for the information but I'm one day ahead - regardless though many members don't read my thread because of my perma-bull status - so your servive is valuable. I think today is setting up as a favorable bear trap - the swine flu is just the excuse the shorts are looking for to pile on and get toasted.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks for the information but I'm one day ahead.

I should have known you would be ahead of me on that one!

Here's one you won't like nearly as much. But I think it has some very important information in it! Folks, be warned, it's a long one.

Buy And Hold Vs Market Timing Strategies

By Hans Wagner on April 27, 2009

"Many investors were taught that buy and hold is the best investing strategy. None other than Professor Jeremy Siegel author of Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns And Long Term Investment Strategies is a strong proponent of the buy and hold approach. Yet in a recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal, Siegel stated that stocks were cheap now and investors should buy. Sounds like he is using a market timing strategy. With the DJIA at lows not seen since 1997, it has been very tough for the buy and hold crowd. Could you have done better by employing market timing strategies that worked?
Buy and Hold
Crestmont Research provides an excellent tool to measure the stock market returns over any time period that began in 1901 and ended in 2008. Called the Stock Matrix it provides a useful measure of the compound annual returns of the market over any period of time. For example, from 1997 through 2008 an individual taxpayer’s compound annual return would have been minus two percent. The compound annual return starting in 1987 through 2008 is two percent. I encourage you to take some time and review the chart at Crestmont, as Ed Esterling does a great job in the analysis. You would have done better in a bank savings account.
It is interesting to see on the Stock Matrix chart that the best an investor could do by exiting in 2008 was to have invested in 1982. This would have generated a four percent compound annual return. The returns generated by exiting in 2008 and entering in 1998 through 2008 are all negative. Not very surprising. Hardly a good sign for the buy and hold crowd.
The proponents of buy and hold told us to expect eight, 10, and even 12 to 15 percent returns on our money, depending which financial “sales person” was quoted. I suspect and hope that most of these sales people are no longer employed espousing their untruths.
Market Timing Strategies that Worked
What if you held a twenty-year position that began in 1982 and you had been able to exit your long positions in 2001, a year after the beginning of the bear market of 2000. Again, looking at the Stock Matrix from Crestmont Research, your return would have been a compound average of 7 percent. That would be anice market timing strategy if it worked.
The bear market of 2000 ended in 2002, as the market rose from there to the end of 2007. Again, what if you had been fully invested in the S&P 500 from 2003, after the last bull market began, and you were able to close out at the end of 2007, when the latest bear market began. In that case, your compounded return would have been 7 percent. Another nice return for market timing strategy if it worked.
Of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing. It is easy to look back and do this kind of “what if’s” and show how an investor could do well. It turns out, if you had followed a simple market timing strategy that worked, such a return is possible. On the monthly chart below there are several buy and sell signals that would have kept you on the right side of the trend. These market timing signals include the RSI crossing down through 50 as a sign a bear market is beginning. When the RSI rises up through 50 it is a sign a bull market is beginning. The 24-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) also offers good market timing signals. Buy when the monthly S&P 500 rises through the 24-month EMA and sell when it falls through the 24-month EMA.
Next, the monthly MACD indicator also provides good buy and sell signals. When the MACD (the black line) falls through its 9-month moving average (the red line,) you receive a sell signal. The MACD rising up through the 9-month moving average gives you a buy signal. Finally, the Slow Stochastic (60) offers a sell signal when it falls through 80. When it rises through 20, it gives a buy signal.
These market timing strategies that worked were used to identify the major turning points in the market. The trades mentioned above kept you out of the majority of the two most recent bear markets. That in itself is better than the vast majority of investors have done.
All one had to do is own the one of the S&P 500 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) during the bull market. Using the same market timing strategies you could have participated in the move down using the short ETFs, increasing your return.

The chart above is a monthly version that is useful for the big picture of your market timing strategy. You can refine your view by using a weekly, daily, hourly and shorter time charts. While no guarantee you will be successful, investors who follow a market timing strategy can beat the market as well as the buy and hold crowd.
Since we are in a severe bear market, a time will come when you should go long based on the monthly chart. Looking at the chart above, that time is still a number of months away. In the mean time there are market timing strategies that help you to participate in bear market rallies. That is a story for another time.
The Bottom Line
Market timing strategies that worked offer investors a way to be on the right side of the trend. Of course, you should not expect to be perfect in the timing of your buy and sells. However, using the right indicators can go a long way to improving the odds in your favor. After all the reason we invest is to provide a secure financial future for our family and ourselves. We should employ every tool that works to assist us in that goal."


http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2009/04/27/buy-and-hold-vs-market-timing-strategies/

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Steady, Steady … you just won’t leave it alone, will you. Fine. I tried to do this quietly with private messages but you just keep picking at it. So I’ll say it again here in my home.

Steady, you are a sparkling personality with a gift for words. But you won’t respect the boundaries that I need to put on relationships. When I asked you repeatedly by PM to bring your interactions into my comfort zone you responded either by saying that you were sorry and would do what I asked (but you didn’t), or you would basically tell me that you would do whatever you wanted to do.

I can’t make you do anything. I can’t control anyone’s actions but my own. So I chose to control my discomfort by doing the only thing that I can do, and that is to discontinue my interactions with you.

Your diamond still sparkles, but not for me.

For everyone else on the MB, I sincerely and humbly apologize for the disharmony that this may bring to our interactions or to your day.

Lady