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XL-entLady's Account Talk
- Thread starter XL-entLady
- Start date
- Status
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Yeah, it moved up like crazy today. But I've already found to my sorrow that it and its TZA inverse are for day traders, because daily rebalancing means the math doesn't work out for swing traders like me. So it REALLY wouldn't work out for a buy-n-holder, my friend!
However, Birch, remember me asking you about EFTs with dividends? I bought PFF, with a 12% dividend, and it went up 6% today!
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
http://www.etftrends.com/2009/04/its-official-ishares-etfs-sold.html
It’s Official: iShares ETFs Sold
April 09, 2009 at 9:33 am by Tom Lydon
"It’s official: Barclays has sold the iShares exchange traded funds (ETFs) line to a private-equity firm.
CVC Capital Partners Group has purchased Barclays’ successful line of iShares ETFs, reports Jane Wardell for the Associated Press. The sale was for $4.4 billion, and Barclays is financing $3.1 billion of the purchase price. The British bank also will be entitled to receive 20% of the equity return from iShares once CVC has achieved certain minimum returns.
The sale will boost Barclays’ capital after it declined a spot in the government’s program to insure toxic assets.
Under the agreement is a stipulation that Barclays can continue to solicit bids for iShares and related businesses for at least 45 business days from April 15.
I’d expect that there will be no hiccups in this transition, and there should be no concern on the part of shareholders as the move takes place. iShares will continue to be a successful and popular line of ETFs."
{My folks just arrived for an Easter visit so I'll not even be lurking for a few days but happy Easter and Passover, everyone! Lady}
It’s Official: iShares ETFs Sold
April 09, 2009 at 9:33 am by Tom Lydon
"It’s official: Barclays has sold the iShares exchange traded funds (ETFs) line to a private-equity firm.
CVC Capital Partners Group has purchased Barclays’ successful line of iShares ETFs, reports Jane Wardell for the Associated Press. The sale was for $4.4 billion, and Barclays is financing $3.1 billion of the purchase price. The British bank also will be entitled to receive 20% of the equity return from iShares once CVC has achieved certain minimum returns.
The sale will boost Barclays’ capital after it declined a spot in the government’s program to insure toxic assets.
Under the agreement is a stipulation that Barclays can continue to solicit bids for iShares and related businesses for at least 45 business days from April 15.
I’d expect that there will be no hiccups in this transition, and there should be no concern on the part of shareholders as the move takes place. iShares will continue to be a successful and popular line of ETFs."
{My folks just arrived for an Easter visit so I'll not even be lurking for a few days but happy Easter and Passover, everyone! Lady}
XL-entLady
Well-known member
This probably belongs in the Lounge, but I just have a second so I'll post it quickly here. I don't know if it should be titled "Don't Judge a Book By Its Cover" or "A Star Is Born" but it totally made my day. I hope you like it too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY
Lady
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
The post below was a "feel good" one, now here's one with market news and commentary. Zack's market roundtable commentary is always good.
http://www.zacks.com/video/
Lady
http://www.zacks.com/video/
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
"OK, I've earned all my subscription fees from Slope with this little discovery. This involves the Russell 2000. Look at this:
So that's cool fact number one. The percentage moves were identical.
But here's the really spiffy part. The move on the left, from November to January, took 29 trading days (inclusive). The move we've been suffering through this time is, as of today, in its 28th trading day. Which means if we eek out a new high in tomorrow's bar and go down from there, these moves will be identical in both distance and percentage.
Neato, huh?"
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Lady
So that's cool fact number one. The percentage moves were identical.
But here's the really spiffy part. The move on the left, from November to January, took 29 trading days (inclusive). The move we've been suffering through this time is, as of today, in its 28th trading day. Which means if we eek out a new high in tomorrow's bar and go down from there, these moves will be identical in both distance and percentage.
Neato, huh?"
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Lady
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Lady,
At the risk of sounding completely insane I was hesitant to say anything. From the moment you brought Kress to my attention I've been doing some research and it undoubtedly appears that cycles and rhythms have way more dominance in Market regulation than what we would think is possible. I believe this is all the more why those considered 'The Experts' have largely missed the rally altogether or missed a substantial portion of it.
This is fascinating !! Thank you.
At the risk of sounding completely insane I was hesitant to say anything. From the moment you brought Kress to my attention I've been doing some research and it undoubtedly appears that cycles and rhythms have way more dominance in Market regulation than what we would think is possible. I believe this is all the more why those considered 'The Experts' have largely missed the rally altogether or missed a substantial portion of it.
This is fascinating !! Thank you.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
"RUT: Has the Russell broken out? Boy, it seems too early for the squeeze, so I'm not predicting it, but just in case, do NOT short this index. "
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=104521
ChartSmart has an opposite view from Slope of Hope. {sigh}
Just when I think I've finally found a direction .... Guess I'll have to go back to studying the charts and making my own best guess. :cheesy: I'm still about 10% long the market in my TSP.
Lady
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=104521
ChartSmart has an opposite view from Slope of Hope. {sigh}
Just when I think I've finally found a direction .... Guess I'll have to go back to studying the charts and making my own best guess. :cheesy: I'm still about 10% long the market in my TSP.Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
CapeChem, you're welcome, glad you could find any direction out of that. I, on the other hand, am feeling whipsawed! :laugh:
And thanks, everyone for your visits to my home. Even though I'm not always here now, I'll leave the lights on and the fridge stocked so don't hesitate to pop in and chill for a while.
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Not sure why you didn't get the 'sent' message because I actually got both your messages. Thanks so much for your exceptional courtesy in ensuring I got a reply! And I'll mention the problem to Tom in case it's something he should be aware of.
You're very kind!
Lady
Birchtree
Well-known member
I liked your graphs of the R2K. The move down from Jan. 6th to the Mar. 6th low was created by the final capitulation of the always wrong retail investor. They are now out of the market and won't get back in for another year. I wouldn't look for a downside repeat, but rather another 39% to the upside.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Last night was one of those crumby ones where I couldn't get comfortable enough to sleep. And I started thinking about an old poem I read. I debated about whether to share it with you or not. But I decided "my house, my rules" so here goes:
Prayer, by Carol Lynn Pearson
This radio set called prayer
Is designed for remarkably simple repair.
When the set is out there is no doubt
Which half of the set is really out.
If you didn't like that one, you can chalk it up to my lack of sleep. :toung:
Lady
Prayer, by Carol Lynn Pearson
This radio set called prayer
Is designed for remarkably simple repair.
When the set is out there is no doubt
Which half of the set is really out.
If you didn't like that one, you can chalk it up to my lack of sleep. :toung:
Lady
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Ostrich Investors By Adam Hamilton | April 17, 2009
"...it is easy to understand why countless investors have simply thrown up their hands in disgust. Capitulation, surrendering to this situation, seems to be the only viable strategy left for countless shell-shocked investors. They cannot bear to even think about investing anymore.
This approach reminds me of the ostrich, an impressive animal. ... by metaphor, this king of birds has the reputation of hiding its head in the sand in the face of danger. While not literally true, this ostrich analogy is useful.
Most investors today are acting like the classic literary ostriches, they are burying their heads in the sand. In an effort to escape the acute stress spawned by the stock panic, they are shunning investing.
...
I call this defense mechanism the Ostrich Fallacy. Ignoring problems, and hoping they will just go away, seldom brings good solutions. If you see a water stain in your ceiling, presumably caused by a leaking pipe, do you ignore it and hope it will magically vanish?
Problems in investing should be treated no differently. And given the importance of investing for our futures, I believe problems there should be assigned a much higher priority than most other problems. Burying your head in the sand for investing is actually shirking your responsibility for your own financial future. Will you hobble your dreams, your children's education, or your retirement by ignoring investing?
Yes, your paper wealth dropped precipitously in the past year. And it feels terrible. Welcome to the club, as virtually everyone in the markets lost money through the stock panic. But while the past is not changeable, the future is. Tomorrow's success or failure is built on the decisions you make now. And those who face these tough times head-on, learning and growing, have a vastly higher probability of emerging successful than the cowering Ostrich Investors.....
...Our ally in this struggle is information. If you are uninformed or misinformed, your despair will only grow. But armed with the right knowledge and perspective, the task of rebuilding investment portfolios becomes much more manageable....
...As a lifelong student of the markets, the plight of the Ostrich Investors breaks my heart. As a speculator I live by the sword and die by the sword financially, so I well understand their pain in losing money. Yet if they could find the strength to lift their heads from the sand, and start surveying the financial landscape, they would find far more hope than in hiding. A few scraps of knowledge, a few morsels of wisdom, make all the difference.....
...The fourth quarter was certainly bad as the stock panic scared consumers into spending less, hurting business profits and stock prices. Q4 real GDP contracted at a 6.3% annualized rate, which works out to an absolute economic contraction of 1.6% in a single quarter. The preceding Q3 2008 fell at a 0.5% annual rate, a very slight absolute contraction. And even if Q1 2009 is as bad as economists expect, 3 quarters of negative growth hardly make a depression. A recession certainly, but a depression needs years of shrinkage....
...So they are assuming that the low stock prices are rational, and the only way they can be rational is if a neo-depression is coming. Yet if you compare the actual economic data today with that seen in the Great Depression, it is immediately obvious that today's event isn't even close. And a mere recession, even a severe one, means stock prices are far too low today.
The precipitous plunge in stock prices in October and November during the height of the panic sparked the extreme fear that led to today's irrational fears of a new depression. But this very plunge took stocks to levels where they are screaming buys. Another scrap of knowledge that every investor should know easily makes this point. Ostrich Investors would do well to heed this illuminating market history.
Just as popular greed and fear drive short-term stock prices, they drive great long cycles throughout stock-market history. I call these the Long Valuation Waves and have studied and written about them extensively. Over a 34-year cycle, the stock markets gradually meander from undervalued to overvalued and back again. The first halves of these cycles are secular bull markets, like from 1982 to 2000 where the stock markets soared 1400%. The second halves are secular bears, like from 1966 to 1982.
Secular means lasting a long time, and 17 years is certainly a long time. Many investors mistakenly think the stock markets always grind lower in secular bears, but in reality they grind sideways. A secular bear is a 17-year period of time, half of a Long Valuation Wave, where stocks make little headway. This sideways movement is necessary because stock prices were too high relative to their earnings power at the end of the preceding secular bull. By grinding sideways, stock prices give underlying earnings time to catch up.
We are in another secular bear today, it started back in early 2000 at the peak of that mighty secular bull. So the stock markets are likely to grind sideways on balance until 2016 or so, not far exceeding their 2000 highs at best. But within this long secular-bear span, there are cycles of shorter bull and bear markets lasting a few years each. These are known as cyclical bulls and bears. As this next chart shows, we are likely entering a new cyclical bull within a secular bear. This is a time of great opportunity for investors.
The red line here shows the flagship S&P 500 stock index from 1966 to 1982, the last secular bear. That was a time of out-of-control spending and crushing taxation from Washington, and the resulting inflation, much like today. The blue line shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in our current secular bear since 2000. Note that the stock markets traded sideways on balance within both of these great secular bears.
But within their giant secular trading ranges, there were powerful cyclical bulls and bears. And they form a pattern even a 3-year-old could recognize. Bear, bull, bear, bull. We saw a cyclical bear between 2000 and 2002 where the stock markets were cut in half. Then we saw a cyclical bull between 2003 and 2007 where the stock markets doubled. Then another cyclical bear emerged, ultimately leading to stocks being cut in half again today. After bear, bull, bear, where does that leave us today? At the dawn of a new cyclical bull!
Even with all the economic problems out there, even within a secular bear, the stock markets will probably double in the coming years. This wouldn't take them to new highs, just back up near the top of their giant secular trading range. This means putting one's head in the sand, giving up on investing, is exactly the wrong thing to do today. If the stock markets indeed double again in the years ahead, some sectors of stocks will radically outperform the general market. Fortunes will be won! But not by the Ostrich Investors.
Another morsel of knowledge most investors don't know is that the biggest up years ever witnessed in stock-market history immediately follow the biggest down years. Last year's stock panic, sandwiched within a normal and expected cyclical bear, drove one of the biggest down years ever. So believe it or not, odds are 2009 is going to prove to be one of the biggest up years ever. After the infamous Panic of 1907, the last true stock panic, 1908 saw an epic 46.6% gain!
...The bottom line is we've just experienced a rare stock-market panic, but the world hasn't ended. Fear got out of hand but it is already abating. Today's economic data merely shows a recession, but stock prices are discounting a full-blown depression. Gradually they will climb higher to reflect a much-less-dire economic reality. And a new cyclical bull is being born, which happily coincides with a post-panic year likely to see huge gains anyway....."
http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/ostrich-investors/86148
I know that was a LONG article, but I thought it had some good information, so I wanted to share.
Lady
"...it is easy to understand why countless investors have simply thrown up their hands in disgust. Capitulation, surrendering to this situation, seems to be the only viable strategy left for countless shell-shocked investors. They cannot bear to even think about investing anymore.
This approach reminds me of the ostrich, an impressive animal. ... by metaphor, this king of birds has the reputation of hiding its head in the sand in the face of danger. While not literally true, this ostrich analogy is useful.
Most investors today are acting like the classic literary ostriches, they are burying their heads in the sand. In an effort to escape the acute stress spawned by the stock panic, they are shunning investing.
...
I call this defense mechanism the Ostrich Fallacy. Ignoring problems, and hoping they will just go away, seldom brings good solutions. If you see a water stain in your ceiling, presumably caused by a leaking pipe, do you ignore it and hope it will magically vanish?
Problems in investing should be treated no differently. And given the importance of investing for our futures, I believe problems there should be assigned a much higher priority than most other problems. Burying your head in the sand for investing is actually shirking your responsibility for your own financial future. Will you hobble your dreams, your children's education, or your retirement by ignoring investing?
Yes, your paper wealth dropped precipitously in the past year. And it feels terrible. Welcome to the club, as virtually everyone in the markets lost money through the stock panic. But while the past is not changeable, the future is. Tomorrow's success or failure is built on the decisions you make now. And those who face these tough times head-on, learning and growing, have a vastly higher probability of emerging successful than the cowering Ostrich Investors.....
...Our ally in this struggle is information. If you are uninformed or misinformed, your despair will only grow. But armed with the right knowledge and perspective, the task of rebuilding investment portfolios becomes much more manageable....
...As a lifelong student of the markets, the plight of the Ostrich Investors breaks my heart. As a speculator I live by the sword and die by the sword financially, so I well understand their pain in losing money. Yet if they could find the strength to lift their heads from the sand, and start surveying the financial landscape, they would find far more hope than in hiding. A few scraps of knowledge, a few morsels of wisdom, make all the difference.....
...The fourth quarter was certainly bad as the stock panic scared consumers into spending less, hurting business profits and stock prices. Q4 real GDP contracted at a 6.3% annualized rate, which works out to an absolute economic contraction of 1.6% in a single quarter. The preceding Q3 2008 fell at a 0.5% annual rate, a very slight absolute contraction. And even if Q1 2009 is as bad as economists expect, 3 quarters of negative growth hardly make a depression. A recession certainly, but a depression needs years of shrinkage....
...So they are assuming that the low stock prices are rational, and the only way they can be rational is if a neo-depression is coming. Yet if you compare the actual economic data today with that seen in the Great Depression, it is immediately obvious that today's event isn't even close. And a mere recession, even a severe one, means stock prices are far too low today.
The precipitous plunge in stock prices in October and November during the height of the panic sparked the extreme fear that led to today's irrational fears of a new depression. But this very plunge took stocks to levels where they are screaming buys. Another scrap of knowledge that every investor should know easily makes this point. Ostrich Investors would do well to heed this illuminating market history.
Just as popular greed and fear drive short-term stock prices, they drive great long cycles throughout stock-market history. I call these the Long Valuation Waves and have studied and written about them extensively. Over a 34-year cycle, the stock markets gradually meander from undervalued to overvalued and back again. The first halves of these cycles are secular bull markets, like from 1982 to 2000 where the stock markets soared 1400%. The second halves are secular bears, like from 1966 to 1982.
Secular means lasting a long time, and 17 years is certainly a long time. Many investors mistakenly think the stock markets always grind lower in secular bears, but in reality they grind sideways. A secular bear is a 17-year period of time, half of a Long Valuation Wave, where stocks make little headway. This sideways movement is necessary because stock prices were too high relative to their earnings power at the end of the preceding secular bull. By grinding sideways, stock prices give underlying earnings time to catch up.
We are in another secular bear today, it started back in early 2000 at the peak of that mighty secular bull. So the stock markets are likely to grind sideways on balance until 2016 or so, not far exceeding their 2000 highs at best. But within this long secular-bear span, there are cycles of shorter bull and bear markets lasting a few years each. These are known as cyclical bulls and bears. As this next chart shows, we are likely entering a new cyclical bull within a secular bear. This is a time of great opportunity for investors.
But within their giant secular trading ranges, there were powerful cyclical bulls and bears. And they form a pattern even a 3-year-old could recognize. Bear, bull, bear, bull. We saw a cyclical bear between 2000 and 2002 where the stock markets were cut in half. Then we saw a cyclical bull between 2003 and 2007 where the stock markets doubled. Then another cyclical bear emerged, ultimately leading to stocks being cut in half again today. After bear, bull, bear, where does that leave us today? At the dawn of a new cyclical bull!
Even with all the economic problems out there, even within a secular bear, the stock markets will probably double in the coming years. This wouldn't take them to new highs, just back up near the top of their giant secular trading range. This means putting one's head in the sand, giving up on investing, is exactly the wrong thing to do today. If the stock markets indeed double again in the years ahead, some sectors of stocks will radically outperform the general market. Fortunes will be won! But not by the Ostrich Investors.
Another morsel of knowledge most investors don't know is that the biggest up years ever witnessed in stock-market history immediately follow the biggest down years. Last year's stock panic, sandwiched within a normal and expected cyclical bear, drove one of the biggest down years ever. So believe it or not, odds are 2009 is going to prove to be one of the biggest up years ever. After the infamous Panic of 1907, the last true stock panic, 1908 saw an epic 46.6% gain!
...The bottom line is we've just experienced a rare stock-market panic, but the world hasn't ended. Fear got out of hand but it is already abating. Today's economic data merely shows a recession, but stock prices are discounting a full-blown depression. Gradually they will climb higher to reflect a much-less-dire economic reality. And a new cyclical bull is being born, which happily coincides with a post-panic year likely to see huge gains anyway....."
http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/ostrich-investors/86148
I know that was a LONG article, but I thought it had some good information, so I wanted to share.
Lady
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