07/03/13
Stocks opened higher on Tuesday and like Monday, the indices peaked in mid-morning trading. A 75-point early gain turned into a mid-afternoon 100-point loss for the Dow, but some buying toward the close left it down just 43-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The losses in the C and S-funds were modest, and the I fund held onto a small gain. Bonds picked up 0.08%.
As we've mentioned before, holiday action can be volatile as lower volume trading days can see the indices get pushed around more easily. This week the bulls have controlled the early trading, but the bears are selling those rallies by the afternoon.
The SPY ended the day basically flat after the big swings both above and below where it closed. The 50-day EMA held on the SPY and the S&P 500.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 has done a good job of holding on despite a chart formation that had me seeing red. But the index has again failed to close above the 50-day SMA (simple moving average) and the old support line is still acting as resistance, although it is rising.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Our friends at sentimenTrader.com did some research on this current situation with the 50-day SMA.
From sentimenTrader.com: "We went back to 1928 and looked for every other time the S&P had been at least 1% below its 50-day [simple] average for at least a week, then spent at least three sessions within 0.5% of the average during the day, but not being able to close above it. We're looking for times when the S&P tried, tried and tried again, but failed. The only other stipulation is that the 50-day [simple] average had to be rising."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Looks like some short-term weakness, but a month later the returns are about in line with random outcomes.
We get the June jobs report on Friday. The consensus estimates are near +170,000 jobs gained, and an unemployment rate of 7.6%. We've been having a fun little monthly contest in the forum trying to guess the monthly job gain / loss. You can check it out here if you're interested in jumping in with a guess.
Thanks for reading! Have a great Independence Day! I'll be around on Friday, but the commentary may be brief unless something major happens in the interim.
Tom Crowley
Administrative Note: Starting this week, we have a new service for you. Don't worry, it's free for a while. Some of you may know our forum member Coolhand, who has been posting and writing blogs in the forum for us for nearly 9 years. He has started a weekly report in the premium service area, which is and available to everyone who has created a premium service login. You will have to login to view the reports.
At some point in the future, and we are targeting January 2014 as the start date, "Coolhand's Market Analysis" will become a full service, daily subscription based premium service. If you don't have a login to the premium area yet, here is how to create one: Create Account. If you need help, please read FAQ #1... How do I sign up? or watch this quick instructional video. If you have an account, just login - www.tsptalk.com/members.
Also: The Ebbchart Premium Service will retire at the end of July so we won't be taking any new subscribers, or renewing monthly subscriptions come July 1. All current subscribers will have access through July 31, but we won't be charging any more renewal payments.
I want to thank ebbnflow for his years of dedicated reports and service. It has been a pleasure working with him. He is moving onto another endeavor and I wish him the best of luck!
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened higher on Tuesday and like Monday, the indices peaked in mid-morning trading. A 75-point early gain turned into a mid-afternoon 100-point loss for the Dow, but some buying toward the close left it down just 43-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The losses in the C and S-funds were modest, and the I fund held onto a small gain. Bonds picked up 0.08%.
As we've mentioned before, holiday action can be volatile as lower volume trading days can see the indices get pushed around more easily. This week the bulls have controlled the early trading, but the bears are selling those rallies by the afternoon.
The SPY ended the day basically flat after the big swings both above and below where it closed. The 50-day EMA held on the SPY and the S&P 500.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 has done a good job of holding on despite a chart formation that had me seeing red. But the index has again failed to close above the 50-day SMA (simple moving average) and the old support line is still acting as resistance, although it is rising.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Our friends at sentimenTrader.com did some research on this current situation with the 50-day SMA.
From sentimenTrader.com: "We went back to 1928 and looked for every other time the S&P had been at least 1% below its 50-day [simple] average for at least a week, then spent at least three sessions within 0.5% of the average during the day, but not being able to close above it. We're looking for times when the S&P tried, tried and tried again, but failed. The only other stipulation is that the 50-day [simple] average had to be rising."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Looks like some short-term weakness, but a month later the returns are about in line with random outcomes.
We get the June jobs report on Friday. The consensus estimates are near +170,000 jobs gained, and an unemployment rate of 7.6%. We've been having a fun little monthly contest in the forum trying to guess the monthly job gain / loss. You can check it out here if you're interested in jumping in with a guess.
Thanks for reading! Have a great Independence Day! I'll be around on Friday, but the commentary may be brief unless something major happens in the interim.
Tom Crowley
Administrative Note: Starting this week, we have a new service for you. Don't worry, it's free for a while. Some of you may know our forum member Coolhand, who has been posting and writing blogs in the forum for us for nearly 9 years. He has started a weekly report in the premium service area, which is and available to everyone who has created a premium service login. You will have to login to view the reports.
At some point in the future, and we are targeting January 2014 as the start date, "Coolhand's Market Analysis" will become a full service, daily subscription based premium service. If you don't have a login to the premium area yet, here is how to create one: Create Account. If you need help, please read FAQ #1... How do I sign up? or watch this quick instructional video. If you have an account, just login - www.tsptalk.com/members.
Also: The Ebbchart Premium Service will retire at the end of July so we won't be taking any new subscribers, or renewing monthly subscriptions come July 1. All current subscribers will have access through July 31, but we won't be charging any more renewal payments.
I want to thank ebbnflow for his years of dedicated reports and service. It has been a pleasure working with him. He is moving onto another endeavor and I wish him the best of luck!
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
