Stocks were mixed yesterday and many stocks fell into negative territory during a weak final hour of trading. The Dow ended the day up 8-points, and since the selling came late in the day, the I-fund held onto most of its gains.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0175%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
We should see volume dry up as we get closer to the Thanksgiving Day holiday and that means a couple of things. One is that any kind of news / geopolitical event could move the market sharply - one way or the other. The second thing is that sometimes we get moves before the holiday that get reversed after the holiday. Unfortunately that means the mostly flat / mixed day yesterday didn't tell us much.
The S&P 500 (SPY) is still above the the rising wedge formation, which is unusual since rising wedges tend to break down. There's certainly no conviction either way as it is just hugging the resistance line right now, but the support from the bottom of the wedge is going to be tested soon.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We have wedges on many of the indices. Here's the Nasdaq chart which sports a rising wedge, but this one isn't as narrow as the S&P's wedge. Just to remind you again, many times the initial break from a wedge can produce a fake-out move. A pre-holiday fake-out would be very difficult to trust.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is also nearing the end of a rising formation. As I said, they tend to break down, but holiday trading can be tricky and we may not see the "real" move until after the holiday weekend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Just a reminder that this week is historically pretty good for stocks - particularly the the day before and the day after the Thursday holiday, while the Monday after the holiday (day +2) has struggled in the past. Friday after Thanksgiving is a short trading day as the markets will close at 1 PM ET.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds yields were down slightly yesterday and have pulled back to some support on both the longer-term and intermediate-term bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Should that support hold, it could be troublesome for the F-fund going forward, although we are starting to see some falling wedges on the bond ETF charts, which could eventually break to the upside. That is about the only positive I see on these bearish looking bond charts.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That's all for today. My commentaries may be on the brief for the rest of the week as many folks take some vacation time and do some traveling. I will most likely post a commentary on Friday, but it has to be written Thanksgiving night, so it could be a very short write-up.
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we take a looks at the chart of the dollar and the long-term Rydex Asset Ratio. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
