Vegas Mith's Account Talk

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Used 1st ITF of the month to move 100% S Fund. That ADP jobs # was solid, Initial Claims was lower and other reports prior have been suggesting the worst of the soft patch is over. Hopefully this all leads to a rosey Retail Sales report next week and then we've got corporate earnings after that.
 
Pretty courageous move there VM, I see you missed alot of the recent upswing and went in at these levels, I admire that.
 
I'm not too worried about missing last week's 5% upside movement. How many times last summer did we see 5% movements up and down from May to Sept? How many of us, me included, timed one or two of those correctly only to get smacked by the following weeks. This summer I saw the potential for the 200 MA cracking and was very pleased with how I was setup if it did. That was a risk I was willing to take and at least I learned a lot coming away from it.

Also, everyone's situation is different. In mine, I'm are looking at 4+ decades till retirement. So right now is a very pressure-free time while I tweak my system and learn from others.
 
Then you must remember the death cross from last July - it was simply a fake out and didn't change the long term trend. The market can provide a dangerous journey for the emotional. I'm looking for a bigger and longer cyclical bull than normal that will provide wealth.
 
I absolutely do indeed. I bought in early June and road a big rally up and an even bigger drop down in June/July. Back then my mindset was since I bought in at the Markets' 200 SMA that I would ride it out until the summer was over.
 
UGH, 4 out of 5 times the ADP and Nonfarm payrolls reports match up. This just HAD to be one of the times it didn't after I bought in. *sigh* Can't wait to see how much of an intermediate dip this will cause (and that I'll miss).
 
Hey all! I've been away for a long time but now I'm back. Long story short, I was deployed to Afghanistan for the greater half of 2011 and into 2012. I'm happy to say I'm back in the States safe & sound and have been relaxing poolside/beach for most of the summer.

I've been Bullish all summer long with my last 100% S Fund buy at S&P 500's 1350 mark. Since then I've been building on cash on the side, waiting for a retracement to 1420 (S&P 500) or lower.
 
BTW, I've added a Price Relativity strategy to help guide my decisions here. Just an unemotional reminder to myself when bullish runs become tired and overextended (hence a correction is due). When S&P 500's current price starts creeping close to 110% or higher than the 200 SMA, I start making defensive moves. Right now the major markets are roughly 1.08% above their respective 200 SMA's so I'm staying 100% S Fund for now.
 
vegasmith said:
Hey all! I've been away for a long time but now I'm back. Long story short, I was deployed to Afghanistan for the greater half of 2011 and into 2012. I'm happy to say I'm back in the States safe & sound and have been relaxing poolside/beach for most of the summer.

I've been Bullish all summer long with my last 100% S Fund buy at S&P 500's 1350 mark. Since then I've been building on cash on the side, waiting for a retracement to 1420 (S&P 500) or lower.
Click to expand...

Congrats and Welcome back!!
 
S&P 500 seems to have temporarily bottomed at it's 200 SMA. I've been building buying power for the last 2-3 months, so used my first ITF this month. Now 100% S Fund. Definitely bullish for the holiday season so this buying opportunity is as good as it gets.
 
The 1st can't come quick enough. More buying power and these nice low market prices. Fiscal cliff worries, Middle East unrest/fighting, and the EU mess is all just same news different day in my opinion. So I'm in a race to keep buying while S&P 500 is below its 200 DMA. From a technical standpoint, I'm betting that 1350's was the formation of shoulders for a reverse head and shoulders pattern. So minus a new crisis, I think our market bottom is forming.
 
Still holding 100% S Fund after a buying in during the mid November lows. To date the S&P 500 is only 5% over its 200 DMA so I'll be staying put for now. Can't complain with a 10% boost in my accts, but there's no reason to sell and run to safety just yet.
 
Starting to pay close attention to the daily charts now. To date the S&P 500 is +8% compared to its 200 DMA.. so I feel there's still room to run albeit much less now. BEST thing for me would be a nice mini-dip to the 50 DMA. With these fresh highs and the DOW crossing 1400, a little tapping of the brakes would do this Bull run lots of good.

If that doesn't happen though, my earlier target of S&P 500 reaching 1540 will find me seeking safety.
 
Some much needed sideways/net-zero action these last few days. I'd still really love to see a dip to the major markets' respective 50 DMA's.. but how often do we get what we want?
 
Past two weeks saw the sideways action turn into a market dip towards the 50 DMA's. Absolutely perfect scenario if you're a bull looking for new market highs. I'm looking for NO breakout above 1515 or a breakdown below 1475. Give me more choppy sideways action and let that 200 DMA catch up to current prices. The longer markets ping-pong between their 20 and 50 DMA's, the more consolidation and longer the short-term bull run will be.

Running out of time before the yearly summer doldrums. But judging where we are right now, I think we have one good bull move before its to lock in those profits.
 
Moving 100% to the G Fund today. Everything that I track and follow says time to collect the profits. Besides, when even the morning shows pay special attention to the all-time record Market highs, it's time to get out. The S&P 500 looks to close above 1540 today which was my goal set back in Fall 2012. Buying 100% S Fund around the 1350 level, this has been an almost 200 point bull run for my account. Now that price is over 9% above the 200 DMA, I feel like most of the profits have been made. Best to not be greedy and cash it in.

What I'd like to see now is a pullback and bottoming at the S&P's 1460-70's. I'd seriously consider buying there. Otherwise I fully expect we'll see our first correction of 2013 in the coming months.
 
Is this a possible double top in the short-immediate term? Twice the bull market hasn't held above S&P 500's 1560's range. My guess is now the bears will test the 1540's support. Unless it holds, we could drop real quick into the previous 1500-1520 range.

Of course I'm bias and rooting for a full 10% correction (1460's). Been holding steady at 100% G for a month now and will continue to wait for a meaningful dip.
 
Patience is a virtue and it looks like its about to pay off. I'm strongly leaning towards the S&P makes a failed attempt at a higher high going into May. Then the rest of May being just awful. As we approach summer I'll be looking for sub-1450 prices to buy. I suspect there will several opportunities in June/July.
 
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