Vegas Mith's Account Talk

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In my opinion the market was testing where the 'stops' of this channel are. For S&P 500: the Bulls' resistance would be 1280.42 and for Bears 1267.56. Everyone assumes Housing report to be awful and have likely priced it in. So I wouldn't be surprised to see 1280.42 cracked if the news is within estimates or slightly better than expected.
 
I moved 100% S for the short-term. Will look to Initial Claims and more importantly GDP/Durable Goods reports for my next move. We're so close to a new set of ITFs that it would be a waste not to buy in. By no means do I believe this summer weakness is over though and I fully expect selling around S&P 500's 50 day EMA.
 
My acct name here and in the Tracker is "vegasmith". But for the thread I separated the two words because I was getting messages for a Vega Smith. =P
 
I moved to 100% G after some minor gains for the week. Lot of factors into my decision including another 2 weeks of "not as bad as expected", no improvement and/or just plain depressing economic reports. And tomorrow is the GDP/Durable Goods report after Goldman Sachs already downgraded their GDP forecast last week. With fresh ITF's next week I'll gladly sidestep this very volatile ping-pong action, collect my meager gains and let the economic prove it's worth it's price. Should have some nice dips to buy and/or a clearer market picture by then as well.

On a side note, I'm bullish on the Corporate Earnings that start in July. That will definitely be interesting.
 
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Long but great article for Bulls and Bears alike.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21451/new-stock-bear

Of course he's totally right about Market Price driving news and being a contrarian factor. I chuckled when I saw even Glenn Beck talking about the 6 consecutive week declines in the market. Sure enough that week the streak was broken and we've had some bottoming action and modest gains lately.
 
I'm looking forward to Coolhand's weekend summary and Tracker allocation charts. Everyone's been mentioning how the Sentiment Survey keeps giving 'Buy' signals week after week but our TSP members seem to be voting far more bearish than their Tracker allocations' suggest. I'm interested to see if our members are starting to allocate their wallets accordingly with their votes.

I got lucky with the failed counter-trend rally this week. I gladly sold for small gains after the markets hit a wall around the 20 SMA/descending trend line. I just wanted to have my feet in the water incase the market tried to test the 50 Day EMA. As we know it didn't come close. Could have stayed in the S Fund but with the current volatility and fresh ITFs only a week away I didn't want to get greedy. Next week's reports don't interest me that much. Initial Claims would have to have a big change up or down to sway June's average. Barring any surprises it seems we're in for another month of 425-430k and a continuation of the last 2 months (ie bad). All the other reports have marginal impact. So I'll gladly sit out the newly reinforced descending trend-line and collect my ITF's next Friday.
 
It looks like every single market tested the top of their trend lines today. These last two weeks have been nothing but bottom test, top test, bottom, top.. ugh. Can someone with a remote to fast forward to Friday? I want to know what happens! One exception has been the Dow Jones Transports though. After it's low in mid-June it kept rising and has been testing it's 50 Day SMA for the last 5 days. But the fact that it hasn't retested it's 200 SMA since has to be encouraging for the Bulls.
 
vegasmith said:
It looks like every single market tested the top of their trend lines today. These last two weeks have been nothing but bottom test, top test, bottom, top.. ugh. Can someone with a remote to fast forward to Friday? I want to know what happens! One exception has been the Dow Jones Transports though. After it's low in mid-June it kept rising and has been testing it's 50 Day SMA for the last 5 days. But the fact that it hasn't retested it's 200 SMA since has to be encouraging for the Bulls.
Click to expand...

This all seems to be encouraging for the bulls... but is it a bull trap?
 
Personally I say yes. We didn't have 6 weeks of declines because all the sudden Greece looks bad again. They've looked awful since 2010. It was 6 weeks of worse than expected economic reports, coupled with some Q1 corporate earnings coming up short. That's why I believe the markets dropped to their 200 MA's. This latest rally is on a week of little economic news and lower volume. Then factor in that at the end of the quarter and 'Big money managers' tend to pad their balance sheets to show all the equities they're holding in their quarterly reports.

So while I'm long-term Bullish, I don't believe the current prices in the market have much solid footing underneath them.
 
BTW I should add that that my declining trend line from beginning of May was cracked twice in 5 trading days. Obviously great news for Bulls. BUT just like on May 31st and 5 days ago, a breakout above the trend line has to hold for it to become support. The price I'll be watching is roughly 1285 for S&P 500. We should know by Friday.
 
vegasmith said:
Personally I say yes. We didn't have 6 weeks of declines because all the sudden Greece looks bad again. They've looked awful since 2010. It was 6 weeks of worse than expected economic reports, coupled with some Q1 corporate earnings coming up short. That's why I believe the markets dropped to their 200 MA's. This latest rally is on a week of little economic news and lower volume. Then factor in that at the end of the quarter and 'Big money managers' tend to pad their balance sheets to show all the equities they're holding in their quarterly reports.

So while I'm long-term Bullish, I don't believe the current prices in the market have much solid footing underneath them.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Im in for tomorrow and then jumping ship. Hopefully the "padding" continues on the last day of the month, like big time!
 
Smart play imo. I keep forgetting to look at ALL the moving averages instead of just the ones posted in blogs and articles. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages have temporarily combined with the original descending trend line. We're about to our heads on all three at exactly the same time (1317 on S&P 500). That's a lot of resistance. As I mentioned in Birchtree's thread, without some meaningful economic data or great news from today's Initial Claims, I just don't believe we have the firepower to breakthrough and hold in the short-term.
 
I'm still holding 100% G fund currently. Though the day's not done it, the Dow Transports has fallen back below the 1 year high it made last Friday. I don't know how much weight others give it but I always sit up and take notice when the DJT gains or loses more in the day than any of the big 3 markets. Today is one of those days. Could be just consolidation ahead of the important ADP jobs report tomorrow.
 
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