Vegas Mith's Account Talk

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If April 29th was the high it would be the shortest bull market in 45 years. This soft patch will prolong the bull market.
 
Birchtree said:
If April 29th was the high it would be the shortest bull market in 45 years. This soft patch will prolong the bull market.
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Oh I firmly believe that April 29th will be blown away come September. The media can make up whatever reason or excuse for the market being down but it's all temporary. The earnings reports are going to be impressive and I'll be 'all in' waiting for it.
 
Clearly going to be a big up day at close of business. The S&P 500 has climbed back to 1289-1290 but that's the top of the short-term descending trend line. Now we await CPI/Core CPI reports and the Initial Claims the day after. If those reports are on the mark or better then I'll be willing to bet the 200 EMA is safe for now. But this week is far from done and with 1 ITF left I'm not ready to leap based on just today.
 
Staying safe in the G fund is paying off in spades today. Like I said before, I've bought into the last 3 months of economic reports only to be burned. This time I didn't buy ahead of the reports and for good reason. The Retail Sales report was abysmal no matter what the expectations were. How does one see -0.2% growth and feel encouraged to buy in 100% on a 'big up day'? I suspect yesterday's buyers were mostly knee-jerk reactions out of fear they missed the bottom. But as I wrote on other threads the downward trend was never broken. The rest of this week's reports will count huge.

Now today's reports, especially the CPI and Core CPI, were worse than expected. We've had +0.3% Inflation in May according to Core CPI. BAD SIGN! So now yesterday's Retail Sales report looks even shakier as experts realize people were simply spending more money for the same amount of goods.

If I was 100% in the market right now, I'd think really hard about selling now. Yesterday's big gains never once cracked the downward trend lines. And those trend lines are STEEP. The 200 EMA is barely holding on but it has no good news to support it. Your only hope now is the Initial Claims report is unexpectedly good (380,000 or better) or the Housing Reports pull off a miracle (yeah right). We're at the bottom of the trend line again so add that to the 200 EMA and maybe you'll get a green day bounce to sell on. But I wouldn't count on it and once we crack and hold under that 200 EMA who knows how low 2011's summer slump will go.

My only short-term worry is still not to get greedy and miss the bottom. But S&P 500 is 2-3 points away from the 200 EMA and if the rest of the week's reports are weak you can forget that support line holding up.
 
vegasmith said:
My only short-term worry is still not to get greedy and miss the bottom. But S&P 500 is 2-3 points away from the 200 EMA and if the rest of the week's reports are weak you can forget that support line holding up.
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You're in a good position to buy on the way up. If you go in too early (like others recently) or are still in (like me and many others) you run the risk of losing more. If you go in on the way up after a confirmed continued bull market, you will have mitigated your losses that we are all suffering. Good Job!
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
You're in a good position to buy on the way up. If you go in too early (like others recently) or are still in (like me and many others) you run the risk of losing more. If you go in on the way up after a confirmed continued bull market, you will have mitigated your losses that we are all suffering. Good Job!
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Well as I said, I'm gonna let the trend lines and market reports guide my next ITF for now. Very interested to see what "the experts" predict for next week's GDP and Durable Goods reports. We should start getting some clues Thurs/Friday.
 
Today's reports underwhelmed and part of the day sold under the 200 EMA. Looks like 'Big Money' was Not impressed by today's 414,000 Initial Claims report and the previous week being revised up another 3k to 430,000. I'm not surprised. And it sure didn't help that the Philadelphia Fed gave a -7.7% Manufacturing Outlook for June when experts thought +7.0%. I wonder how much weight the market gives regional reports like 'Philly Fed' but being over 14% off in the wrong direction is quite eye-opening.

Looks like the only real line of support propping the Bulls up now is the S&P 500's March low (1256'ish). If that breaks (more like when) then down we go to the 2010 support levels (1224'ish for S&P 500). My opinion all week has been none of these support levels will hold up without positive info from the week's reports. I'm trying not to salivate at the thought of buying in at 1220's and ride all the way back up. Next week's reports would all need to be anemic gains or just plain bad for that to happen.

To answer some of the private messages.. with 1 ITF left and half of June to go I'm not touching the F Fund. I still want the ability to jump in S/C/I even if it's just for 5 to 10 days.
 
Watch the M and A transactions going on - plenty of cash available to buy many companies. I hope they continue to take a few of mine at a premium.
 
Today's gains weren't nearly large enough and we're still in the descending trend lines. It seemed to be that the media paid lots of attention to the DOW and S&P 500 while the NASDAQ has made 3 consecutive-day new lows and today closed below the March 2011 low. I guess the market is punting to next week's reports before we figure out if we're finally at the bottom or not.
 
Wow, Big swing day in all the markets on a day that had no domestic reports.. yet the trend lines are still in tact. Both the low and high ends of the channel were tested and the day's still not over yet.

For the Bulls, key market sectors like ^DJT have crossed though resistance to make higher intra-day highs. I'm wary of a possible fakeout but still worth noting as 'Transports' is often the market leader. For the Bears, NASDAQ hasn't been able to cross back above it's 200 EMA and all markets have fallen off their intra-day highs.
 
vegasmith said:
Wow, Big swing day in all the markets on a day that had no domestic reports.. yet the trend lines are still in tact. Both the low and high ends of the channel were tested and the day's still not over yet.

For the Bulls, key market sectors like ^DJT have crossed though resistance to make higher intra-day highs. I'm wary of a possible fakeout but still worth noting as 'Transports' is often the market leader. For the Bears, NASDAQ hasn't been able to cross back above it's 200 EMA and all markets have fallen off their intra-day highs.
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The last 30 minutes will make us or break us. :nuts:
 
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