Vegas Mith's Account Talk

[vegasmith]

Today is exactly what I needed. I have been waiting for a little market weakness/consolidation on Monday so I could buy back in. Right now the DWCPF is down 0.2% although seems to be climbing. I'll be 100% S Fund by close of business with the rest of earnings week to enjoy.

 

[JamesE]

High expectations eh? I hope you're right, I'm locked and loaded.

 

[vegasmith]

Well I was hoping Monday would have more weakness since I was buying in that day. But sure is nice being rewarded with +1% the very next day.

 

[vegasmith]

Patience is a virtue and I've been living that cliche this whole month. Didn't use an ITF during this last breakdown and seems to finally be paying off. After buying in at COB April 25, I believe the market has found its footing and is on it's way back up. Started getting worried in Mid-may when the S&P 500 and VIX both broke their 50 day EMA's. But their 100 day EMA's never cracked despite VIX getting tested twice in fact.

Looking forward to next week's reports. Anxious to see what the "experts" will predict for Durable Goods and GDP. I'd love for the actual figures to blow predictions out of the water but the past couple of months have been mixed.

 

[vegasmith]

Found it's footing? Hehe yeah about that..

Whatever, sticking to my plan and want to see what this monster reports say this week. The Market expects a negative Durable Goods and a GDP of 1.8%. Kind of depressing expectations but leaves a lot of room to meet or beat their assumptions.

 

[amoeba]

Found it's footing? Hehe yeah about that..

Whatever, sticking to my plan and want to see what this monster reports say this week. The Market expects a negative Durable Goods and a GDP of 1.8%. Kind of depressing expectations but leaves a lot of room to meet or beat their assumptions.

I don't think a beat/meet will hold the line this month; I expect selling on good news and more so if bad - altho I'm not expecting a miss.

 

[vegasmith]

I won't mind the market selling good news. That just scares more and more people out of the way and keeps prices nice and low. The result is low prices backed by good economic reports.. a value buyer, market timer and every 'Bull's' dream.

 

[Birchtree]

Now you have my attention - I like the way you think.

 

[vegasmith]

Good article from Safehaven. Basically emphasizing short term caution but long term Bullish.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21144/the-state-of-the-trend

 

[vegasmith]

Now you have my attention - I like the way you think.

Looks like we're getting our wish:

Market Sentiment is very bearish despite 4-straight days of gains.
S&P 500 recaptured it's 20 Day EMA and the 50 EMA is now in the rear-view mirror.
VIX has stopped ping-ponging between 20 and 50 Day EMA's and made a definitive move lower.
All this mostly sideways action since March has let the 200 Day EMA and massive support creep closer and closer to current prices. There's huge room to maneuver to the upside if only we could get some encouraging economic reports to buy in to.

 

[Birchtree]

The M2 money supply has finally started growing at about 5%. So the economy will gradually improve. I'm in the Altucher camp. Noting monetary policy works with a lag, Altucher believes QE2 hasn't yet hit the economy, but it will in the coming months. He is absolutely bullish on the economy and the stock market. He is upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will eclipse 2000 before the current rally runs its course. This guy called the new bull market back in March '09 and some laughed - I was 100% invested up to my nostrils and the rest is history. The bigger risk is being out rather than being in. I'm going to play all summer.

 

[vegasmith]

Ouch, only a 38K employment gain in the ADP report? Usually their report is rosier than the 'Payrolls' report at the week's end. Not looking good for meeting or beating market predictions of 185k on Friday. Then again when has the ADP report ever matched the Nonfarm Payrolls?

Anyway, already bought my ticket and I'm staying for Friday's show. If this is the market pricing in the possibility of depressing news Friday then there's little point to selling now. At any rate I feel bad for those that bought in at COB yesterday. Theirs is a bitter pill to shallow.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Ouch, only a 38K employment gain in the ADP report? Usually their report is rosier than the 'Payrolls' report at the week's end. Not looking good for meeting or beating market predictions of 185k on Friday. Then again when has the ADP report ever matched the Nonfarm Payrolls?

Anyway, already bought my ticket and I'm staying for Friday's show. If this is the market pricing in the possibility of depressing news Friday then there's little point to selling now. At any rate I feel bad for those that bought in at COB yesterday. Theirs is a bitter pill to shallow.

I have my short ticket and I am hoping Friday's show makes me lots of money...

 

[vegasmith]

Looks like the S&P 500 is going to fight off the May low and close neutral today. Still an hour to go so we'll see. Not much love for any fund today.. even the F Fund is down 0.3%.

 

[vegasmith]

Moved to 100% G fund. Unemployment went up, Jobs Report shows hiring down and the short-term downtrend is clearly in command.

 

[vegasmith]

Looks like moving to the G fund has avoided another 2% loss thus far and the week's not even over. My eyes are definitely on the June 14th Retail Sales report. Should be the first of many reports telling us if this is a soft spot or something more serious.

 

[Birchtree]

I think the market will eventually recognize and appreciate the apparent soft spot because it will mean the economy can continue to expand in a "goldilocks" manner. Soon bad news will become good news.

 

[vegasmith]

I think the market will eventually recognize and appreciate the apparent soft spot because it will mean the economy can continue to expand in a "goldilocks" manner. Soon bad news will become good news.

Agreed. I fully believe this just a short-term bear/correction inside a Bull Market. So I'll be looking to the various June reports for any clues on it's duration.

 

[vegasmith]

Big down day today. Looks like 1% decline across the board and even the F Fund is struggling to stay positive. Of course I'm cheering the lower prices from the safety of the G fund. I've bought into the last 3 months of economic reports and my AutoTracker rank shows. Time for some guts and NOT to buy ahead of the reports next week. I'm holding firm in G Fund while betting next week's Retail and Initial Claims reports will underwhelm. Even if they meet expectations or are beat them, how much of that is from rising food and gas prices and not actual growth?

My only worry now is to not get greedy and miss the bottom. The S&P is 10 points away from the 200 EMA and if next week's reports are weak you can forget the market rallying back. I'm rooting for below expectations but still a positive % Retail Sales. I get my wish and wave goodbye to the 200 EMA.

 

[vegasmith]

The Market only expects a 0.4% Retail Sales (excluding Auto) increase from May. So basically no growth. And Initial Claims are expected to come in at the 420k'ish range? Still well above the goal of sub-400k and going backwards on the road to recovery. Maybe others know something I don't but the only reason I see to be 100% in equities right now is for a dead-cat bounce. And even then the rally would be short-lived if there's no encouraging economic data to back it up.