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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
As time to re-enter equities?
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Not true my friend.
G Fund is always 'safe' -- always.
BTW you sound a bit bearish.
:cheesy:
crws
Active member
Do you ever wonder if the percentage gains by the market is the inverse of the dollar's loss on a daily basis? And that is all that the gains are?
i.e. If the USD @ USD $100 drops $1 or 1%, does the market rally 1% per dollared index (DJIA @10,000 1%=1,000 points or to 11,000) to automatically compensate the true value?
And if so, where would this cycle lead or what would cause it to breakdown?
(This is a slight repeat of a previous post on my thread, but I've been thinking about it alot lately and seeking other POV.)
A Dollar-Devaluation Adjusted Market Has Barely Moved Above Its 2009 Lows
Steadygain
TSP Elite
:embarrest: Uptrend -- sorrry man -- that wasn't my intention.
'Nothing is Safe' this day and age -- especially for anyone looking for a fast Gain.
The Banks seem to know something is going on.
A strong dollar was G-20's most pressing concern -- makes ya wonder??
Uptrend -- if I post anything it's NEVER to challenge ya -- in fact it's usually always with a sense of wit -- or just kind of shooting the breeze.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
:laugh::laugh:
crws
Active member
Uptrend
Well-known member
Market is moving sideways. Could be a triangle forming; but looks like a descending triangle. SPX trend is down, and short and long term bonds trend is also down. EFA (for I fund) trend is down, while the dollar is bullish. Still looking for a Dec 8-15 turn date area, but who knows, as it could be a washout Christmas. Staying in cash (G fund) at this time. Trading is a game of patience (I know, as I have learned the hard way).
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is some I fund analysis: First the US dollar as UUP:
View attachment 10256
This is the weekly. We see the candles are above the 7 and 14 sma and heading to the 28 sma (in the circled area). This is my target for some heavy duty resistance and a good place to make a trade into the I fund. Notice that whenever the market is above the 7 sma, the dollar is rising. Notice also that in Dec-jAN of 2010/11 there was a 4 week rejection off the 28 sma. I expect this to occur in some form again. Now to EFA:
View attachment 10257
Notice that when the EFA market is below the 7 sma the market is correcting. We see a MACD very near the 0 line and close to a negative cross. My initial target for support is the 28 sma coming in at 52.82 (the circled area). This also happens to be nearly a perfect 50% fibonacci retracement from the recent high. There is also a gap to be filled just above (also circled). I believe there may be a pretty good bounce here; especially if it lines up with the US dollar resistance point. This is what I am watching for a possible entry into the I fund in the future. Best to your trades!
View attachment 10256
This is the weekly. We see the candles are above the 7 and 14 sma and heading to the 28 sma (in the circled area). This is my target for some heavy duty resistance and a good place to make a trade into the I fund. Notice that whenever the market is above the 7 sma, the dollar is rising. Notice also that in Dec-jAN of 2010/11 there was a 4 week rejection off the 28 sma. I expect this to occur in some form again. Now to EFA:
View attachment 10257
Notice that when the EFA market is below the 7 sma the market is correcting. We see a MACD very near the 0 line and close to a negative cross. My initial target for support is the 28 sma coming in at 52.82 (the circled area). This also happens to be nearly a perfect 50% fibonacci retracement from the recent high. There is also a gap to be filled just above (also circled). I believe there may be a pretty good bounce here; especially if it lines up with the US dollar resistance point. This is what I am watching for a possible entry into the I fund in the future. Best to your trades!
crws
Active member
If you take these charts back to Apr-May of this year, I think it would be a fairly accurate representation for PIIGS II
Steadygain
TSP Elite
I'll likely go 100% I Fund tomorrow
Thanks for all this !!! It totally adds to my thinking.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Everything I have looked at tonight looks bearish. VIX woke up and is pushing above the 50 sma. SPX breaking below 1173 is the level to watch. If that happens there will be more downside. Projected turn date is between Dec 6 -10. If 1173 holds,then a buying opportunity with the turn date coming a day or two early. The market needs to tell us what to do. Mr. Market can you tell us anything?
Holding cash while the FED dilutes it with QE2. Let's see: wage freeze for 2 years (except military), QE2, higher food prices, deflation, high energy costs, gov side of health benefits added to taxable wages etc. What part of prosperity don't you understand? Austerity anyone?
Holding cash while the FED dilutes it with QE2. Let's see: wage freeze for 2 years (except military), QE2, higher food prices, deflation, high energy costs, gov side of health benefits added to taxable wages etc. What part of prosperity don't you understand? Austerity anyone?
Nate
Member
What happened to holding out for that 52 mark gap?
"I" has been on a clear weekly down trend. Im waiting....maybe a %50 in soon if I get itchy finger. I wanna see a low 18 or possibly 17, then all in unless the weekly trend changes.
