Uptrend's Account Talk

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Uptrend said:
Not true. Waves are a tool to gage market direction up or down. Sometimes the unfolding has different interpretations and herein lies the problem. Neat stuff to play around with at any rate.

BTW I have discovered something this week that is simple yet profound. I have been a student of TA for 5 years now and have just realized how good this unnamed TA indicator really is and how it can help TSP trading. Bushwhacker has been updated with the retrofit. Standby for launch. May have to wait for some more bad weather to pass. Kudos for those in the winners circle, but the race has just started. There are icy slopes, don't fly off the path and crash and burn.
Click to expand...

Uptrend,

Thanks for the detailed analysis of the EW. No system is perfectly precise, but the near convergence behavior of the systems, jointly serve as excellent approaches to determining the most likely trend, and the most likely time to seek shelter in less risky funds. I am energized with the idea that you are going to disclose soon. Thanks and Good luck.:)
 
Uptrend said:
BTW I have discovered something this week that is simple yet profound. I have been a student of TA for 5 years now and have just realized how good this unnamed TA indicator really is and how it can help TSP trading. Bushwhacker has been updated with the retrofit. Standby for launch. May have to wait for some more bad weather to pass. Kudos for those in the winners circle, but the race has just started. There are icy slopes, don't fly off the path and crash and burn.
Click to expand...

Any hint on your new discovery? I would understand if you want to keep it protected.
 
350zCommTech said:
Any hint on your new discovery? I would understand if you want to keep it protected.
Click to expand...

It has to do with multiple timeframes and comparisons of some of the indicators between them.

Here is more good news for the Euro from rich man Soros:

"A makeshift assistance should be enough for Greece, but that leaves Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Together they constitute too large of a portion of euroland to he helped in this way," Soro said."

BTW the Euro still looks weak the EUR/USD pair has the 20 and 50 emas below the 200 ema and pointing down, as well as the candles below key support. Also there are negative divergences on most of the TA. So, IMO there is a fear out there, and we will how to wait to see how it plays out.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Euros...03.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
 
My indicators are pointing down. IMO a trend reversal could be underway. A close belows todays low of SPX 1092.18 will confirm. I am looking for the next wave down to be longer than wave one. A freefall sort of impulse wave. Possible downside target in the 960 area.

For the indicators to go up there needs to be strength in the market. Right now the RSI is nuetral near the value of 50. No strength. No volume either. Negative divergences are appearing in the daily and weekly timeframes.

The bear market ABC should play out. Bear watch: Is the battleship taking on water?
 
Uptrend said:
My indicators are pointing down. IMO a trend reversal could be underway. A close belows todays low of SPX 1092.18 will confirm. I am looking for the next wave down to be longer than wave one. A freefall sort of impulse wave. Possible downside target in the 960 area.

For the indicators to go up there needs to be strength in the market. Right now the RSI is nuetral near the value of 50. No strength. No volume either. Negative divergences are appearing in the daily and weekly timeframes.

The bear market ABC should play out. Bear watch: Is the battleship taking on water?
Click to expand...

Don't you mean the Titanic?:D

While my indicators are on a sell, I'm not that bearish yet. But Greece not getting bailed out would certainly change things.
 
Yes, we must pay for the bad deeds of ourselves and others....including the greediness and selfishness. It's going to take smart people and alot of time to fix the country...I'm sad to say!
 
mick504 said:
Yes, we must pay for the bad deeds of ourselves and others....including the greediness and selfishness. It's going to take smart people and alot of time to fix the country...I'm sad to say!
Click to expand...

IMHO the fix will be devaluing the dollar and other world currenices to whereas they will institute a new three world currency system to save the world's problems which the leaders caused. Of course the 10 dollars today will only be worth about 1 dollar of the new or maybe a worst ratio.
 
The banks are going to have to take the hit for bad lending practices and borrowers are also going to have to take their lumps for poor borrowing practices...period. No amount of government intervention is going to prevent it. It will only prolong the inevitable pain on both sides. Same thing for fiscal irresponsibility in government. We just can't keep this up.

Stupid should HURT.
 
Three things can happen in the market: up , down or sideways entering a trading range. There is no push up at this time unles the SPX 1107-1115 area is cleared. No real strength. Down has big possibilities. Sideways has possibilities also, being driven by this and that news report, bumpy US recovery, high oil price, and world factors. Some of the TA indicators are in conflict, suggesting this might happen. How wide the range would be is unclear to me at this time; but in the short term should be down to the last low of 1044 at least, and up to the last high at 1150 or slightly beyond. It seems more reasonable to me under this scenario to have the trading range push wider, say 900-1200 or 950-1250. I have no idea what will play out for sure, just layijng out possibilities. Because of the negative divergences on the daily, weekly and monthly charts, I am favoring down at this time, with the trading range in the hip pocket.
 
Uptrend said:
Three things can happen in the market: up , down or sideways entering a trading range. There is no push up at this time unles the SPX 1107-1115 area is cleared. No real strength. Down has big possibilities. Sideways has possibilities also, being driven by this and that news report, bumpy US recovery, high oil price, and world factors. Some of the TA indicators are in conflict, suggesting this might happen. How wide the range would be is unclear to me at this time; but in the short term should be down to the last low of 1044 at least, and up to the last high at 1150 or slightly beyond. It seems more reasonable to me under this scenario to have the trading range push wider, say 900-1200 or 950-1250. I have no idea what will play out for sure, just layijng out possibilities. Because of the negative divergences on the daily, weekly and monthly charts, I am favoring down at this time, with the trading range in the hip pocket.
Click to expand...

I'll keep it simple.

Houston, we have a problem.
 
Valkyrie said:
IMHO the fix will be devaluing the dollar and other world currenices to whereas they will institute a new three world currency system to save the world's problems which the leaders caused. Of course the 10 dollars today will only be worth about 1 dollar of the new or maybe a worst ratio.
Click to expand...

Funny you should mention this.

France has made it perfectly clear they have every intention of ignoring the US Dollar when they take charge of the EU in 2011. Their number one priority is to institute a new currency totally seperate from the US Dollar and that doesn't even recognize it. Other Nations have equally stated it's time to put the US Dollar to rest.

Since the US Dollar is totally dependent on International recognition; there's a chance our present currency will be worthless in another year

 
Well, that would only happen if we all get off of oil or the Cartel finally comes up with a universal currency. Actually a lower dollar will make U.S. made goods less expensive, now that would be a switch.
 
I wish I had a better handle of these things Silverbird -- cause when I hear stuff like that I feel so small and clueless ...

... and I'm instantly wondering what life would be like if all of a sudden our curreny is not recognized ....

.... and what's going to happen and all I can do is spin my thoughts and kind of go crazy.

Right away --- you're like 'No way is that going to happen' :)

Thank You !!
 
In order for that to occur they will need to be prepared to ignore the US consumer. The consumer is what makes the dollar what it is.
There are several EU countries they would need to drag kicking and screaming to ignore the US consumer and France is hardly the powerhouse to do that. IMHO
 
Is that lady Liberty coming down from her pedastal?

amero_20_2007_circ_989x513preview.jpg
 
I am not going to debate the new world order or currency this AM, but thanks to those that did.

Looking at the charts there was a SPX 2 day "dark cloud cover" bearish candlestick pattern on 2/19, and 2/22. Confirmation was on 2/23 when the market closed below the mid-point of the candle on 2/22.

Dark cloud cover caps an uptrend. Dark cloud cover can be seen on the SPY and Russell also for the same days. Candlestick patterns should never be ignored.

Here is more detail
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/darkcloud.asp

http://web.streetauthority.com/terms/darkcloudcover.asp
 
Since March 2009 there has been weakness near the end/beginning of any month, except for August and December 2009, and January 2010. In bull markets the last 2 and first 4 of any month rollover are the strongest. Manipulation or bear weakness?

Another item for reversal watch in the bear camp. So far we have a 1 2 3 trend reversal. The uptrend was busted on January 20,2010, the SPX retraced to 1044 (leg 1), the market rose to 1112 (leg 2) and now seems to be starting down (leg 3). The market is famous for fake-outs so we need to see if the 1091 pivot area is taken out and close below today. That was support and now should be resistance, again. Take this level out and it will be harder to climb back up, and IMO a retest of the 1044 lows or lower is on the menu.

Nothing has changed the view so far that wave 3 of intermediate wave 1 of major wave C is happening. Some say this bear prediction is too well publicized and therefore it will not occur. I don't really know, and I am not sure if anybody knows. I just see weak momentum in the market, with no sticking power and lots of indecision. Therefore, I am enjoying the sidelines until I see a buying opportunity that puts risk/reward in my favor. Sometimes the market can wear you down and so patience is a key to trading.
 
Uptrend said:
Since March 2009 there has been weakness near the end/beginning of any month, except for August and December 2009, and January 2010. In bull markets the last 2 and first 4 of any month rollover are the strongest. Manipulation or bear weakness?

Another item for reversal watch in the bear camp. So far we have a 1 2 3 trend reversal. The uptrend was busted on January 20,2010, the SPX retraced to 1044 (leg 1), the market rose to 1112 (leg 2) and now seems to be starting down (leg 3). The market is famous for fake-outs so we need to see if the 1091 pivot area is taken out and close below today. That was support and now should be resistance, again.Take this level out and it will be harder to climb back up, and IMO a retest of the 1044 lows or lower is on the menu.

Nothing has changed the view so far that wave 3 of intermediate wave 1 of major wave C is happening. Some say this bear prediction is too well publicized and therefore it will not occur. I don't really know, and I am not sure if anybody knows. I just see weak momentum in the market, with no sticking power and lots of indecision. Therefore, I am enjoying the sidelines until I see a buying opportunity that puts risk/reward in my favor. Sometimes the market can wear you down and so patience is a key to trading.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the TA Uptrend. The line I highlighted above seems to be contradictory to what Tom is pointing out in post #137 today (below), which is an expectation of a new leg higher from here, unless we push down even further after today. Hopefully I'm reading that correctly. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=258624#post258624
 
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