Corepuncher
Well-known member
How is that possible...when the low in UNG was 8.50???
Also, they write "From hear you sell into the rallies."
"hear"? and this is a reputable website?
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- Thread starter Uptrend
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How is that possible...when the low in UNG was 8.50???
Also, they write "From hear you sell into the rallies."
"hear"? and this is a reputable website?
Uptrend
Well-known member
That quoto about Nenner was from Hedgefund Trader and not Nenners website. I can't explain UNG, as the ticker must be incorrect, because $2.40 is not possible. The general relationships seem pretty good however. What I got out of it was that in the first half of 2010 deflation is still active, US dollar rally into 80's on index, market falters in January, spring rally and summer decline, bonds crack, gold backs down, natural gas at lows, and food commodities strong. Some of Nenners forecasts seem to rely on supply and demand economics.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Feeble rally attempt today, but EWT predicts more down to come in another little wave. If you have an IFT available, IMO wait for the next little downwave to jump in. Based on the big jump in the VIX the last few days, and the need for a lower high in the next larger upwave, I am thinking we could have a 50 point swing on the SPX (something like 1075 -1123). If the market does jump above the 50 ema, it should not stay there for more than a day or two, or else we don't have a downtrend. The timing of the developments may not favor February IFT's, because it might be underway later this week.
Bushwhacker system still in hold G mode.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Yes. Two subsystems were too confusing for most folks, so I streamlined. Bushwhacker is the real me, as far as trading styles, because I want to put reward in my favor, but not overdo it. This system tries to minimize market time. What if there was a terrorist attack for example?
Uptrend
Well-known member
Nothing has changed my view today. The market is still pointing down with a final little wave for the first set.
I expect support to be tested on SPX near 1086 and probably break and test the channel boundary near 1075-1077. That is where I think a bounce will start. A 0.618 fibonacci retrace could take the market back to 1121. If this happens this would be a beautiful bearish pattern with a lower high. Of course there are other possibilities. The market could keep steaming upwards and put in a near top in the 1200's. Quite often markets oscillate in their channels. So, we really don't have a definative view at this point. Some would call that nuetral.
.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Not sure why they reversed. The level did equal the futures high made on Monday, and at various times last November-December. Looking at the squiggle wave count on the SPX, it looks like wave 4 was an expanded abc diagonal, and if so wave 5 down is still underway. The wave action is very choppy on the /ES futures and hard to count. For the market to go upwards the market must pass the 1104 level on SPX, which is the middle of last Fridays big red candlestick. IMO we might not see a reversal until the SPX 1075 area is hit. This is the trading channel boundary, going way back to September 09, and is a magnet for this first fall.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I watch the /ES futures or E-mini SPX, but don't put much faith in them, especially when the market is fairly nuetral. For a technical person, it is good overnight entertainment, but I have seen large sell-offs 10 minutes before market open. I certianly would not plan IFT trades on the futures. There is usually a 4-5 point differential between the /ES futures and the SPX cash market, the /ES printing lower. The /TF or Russell 2000 is also interesting to watch, as well as the /DX or US dollar, and some of the bond funds. Sometimes the futures are helpful intra-day to help make trading decisions as a confirmation of market direction from what the market indices indicators are telling you.
hessian
Member
Hi Uptrend,
Think an intraday low of 1078.46 will meet the wave - where we could get a kick, late day/tomorrow?
VR
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p55192775979
Uptrend
Well-known member
Seems like the PPT is having more trouble
Uptrend
Well-known member
No the channel boundary was barely touched. A lot of times they overshoot. Looking for a solid SPX 1075 and perhaps overshoot to 1070.
Possible scenarios that could play out:
A) Market hits the SPX 1075 area and reverses upward to resistance in the 1115 to 1130 area. A lower high is put in and the market goes down and takes out 1075 on the way to 1030.
B) The market keeps going up and tests the 1150 highs or even takes them out and puts in a higher high at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the bear market in the 1220's.
C) The market just fails and takes out 1075 right now on the way to 1030.
Elliot wave counts tell me, the current down move is not quite finished. That is why I am so sure 1075 area will be hit. I expect a lower high, and the downtrend to continue, but we will not know for sure until it happens.
I expect a buy signal soon, but it may be short, running only to about next Thursday. No signals have been given on Bushwhacker today.
IFT considerations. If a buy signal is given and you IFT in on Monday, and the trade stalls on Thursday, you gain on only 3 days. Based on my TA the trade could be worth as much as 5% gain, but if half the gains occur tomorrow and Monday while you are trying to get in, you net perhaps only 2-3%. If the market happens to keep going up past 1130 then you really win. If it doesn't, you take your little gain and can't trade until March.
IF the Bear Market is continuing, then based on average wave development timing, I project a sweet spot in March to buy and hold. This is because major wave 2 of 5 will be unfolding, and this is a countertrend rally of about a 15% magnitute. If it happens to fast into late February, then you give up the front part of that trade if you trade now. There would be one more little rebound in February, before the countertrend rally occurs.Last edited:Darn- as a gambling man its tough to wait out the thin shingles (allowable IFT's). Me thinks it could be decent trade opp. to wait out an end of the month trade (Feb) and carry over more IFT potential (3 sort of) to March (out/stocks=1IFT; in/stocks=2IFT; then ease into G-arage=3+) for more/options?? haven't had the patience to try yet as seems like 2-3% could be had (early Feb) with good/lucky trade... ELast edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
View attachment 8121
There are some positive divergences on the charts; especially QQQQ's I am favoring a bounceback at 1061 support area, but panic might take the market directly to 1030. On the plus side, we have a new batch of IFTs! Monday, IMO will probably open up, while the market backtests the major channel breakdown, but should stall near SPX 1080. Then the next several trading sessions will more clearly define where a countertrend should take place.
Uptrend
Well-known member
You do great work. I like your analysis better than most of the folks on Trader's Talk.
Thanks cool. I read Traders talk sometimes (the fearless forcasters) and there are some good posts. But a lot of so so posts and a little flavor of bashing here and there. Still way better than the Yahoo message board!Similar threads
