Uptrend's Account Talk

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grandma said:
Would you take a loss (not knowing what you bought in at) to try to prevent any/or/further deterioration?
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Yes! See Chart:

View attachment 7779

This is the weekly 10 year treasury note futures /ZN. You can see the market is below the 20, 50 and 200 ema, and has lots of room to fall in the downward sloping channel. The moving average trio has made a bearish reallignment with the 20 ema below the 50, and the 50 below the 200. The RSI and stochastic are starting to show oversold conditions, but the RSI has more room to run to the downside. A support level is at 112.2 on the chart, -2.5% away. So, IMHO, sell rather, than waiting for a bounce.
 
last year was my first real year of dealing with the tsp...i think i did pretty good. is there a particular fund that usually does well in january? ...i might actually keep my money in s funds while keeping my eye on the long term goal
 
Nice looking chart there Uptrend and a great looking channel. Just curious, what is that line written over the Volume?
 
Today is boring. Perhaps 2010 will be more exciting. The short-term downside target on SPX looks to be anywhere from 1108 to 1119. The dollar (as tracked by the /DX futures) looks to be ready to test the underside of the 200 ema again. I notice a lot of open interest; probably short interest, with expectation of a falling dollar in the new year?

No buy signals yet. Some amount of correction should take place first. That is what the TA indicators suggest anyway. Holding short positions.

Well I learned a lot in 2009, even if my return did not show it. With the tool kit now firmly in place I expect a great 2010. Trying to keep emotions out of trading, as that is where I have gone wrong in the past.

Wishing you a prosperous and Happy New Year!
 
Uptrend said:
Well I learned a lot in 2009, even if my return did not show it. With the tool kit now firmly in place I expect a great 2010. Trying to keep emotions out of trading, as that is where I have gone wrong in the past.

Wishing you a prosperous and Happy New Year!
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Amen brother !!!

The System is Wonderful !! and I'm one of your strongest and most consistent users :D:D

Excellent use of color BTW -- and same to you my friend. ;)


Almost forgot --- We got the Federal Wildlife Calander :) --- very similar

We donate to preserve the cause of Wildlife -- and it's kind of funny because a lot of their articles deal with issues like Global Warming and the Coppenhagen (sp) summit they attended to push for this and that ....
 
Steadygain said:
Amen brother !!!

The System is Wonderful !! and I'm one of your strongest and most consistent users :D:D
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Yeah I don't need advertising when Steady is around! Seriously you should be in sales! Anyway, lets rock in 2010. If things go wrong, I will blame it on a glitch, if things go right, then it's the system. So when trading, there is no one to blame but the decision maker. Lets make good decisions in 2010, despite the game playing in the market. Fire back and out smart the GS foxes and hedge hogs with their dark pools.
 
Bearish finish to 2009. Long red candles on the hourly for the SPX and RUT. Dollar sold off a little at the same time (which in the past has made the market go up, but not this time). EFA closed below the 50 ema with a red candle. Bonds still bearish with a descending triangle on /ZN 10 year treasury note futures.

Could be building the right side of a H&S on SPX, with a downside target to 1042, should there be a break of the neckline. If that is the case the market should flounder around betweeen 1084 -1119 for most of January 2010 to balance the left side, and then shoot for the 1042 target. We'll see.

The banking index, BKX looks is forming a descending triangle, and closed with a red dragonfly doji today. BKX is now below its 20 ema and there are negative divergences on the MACD, RSI and stochastics. Looks bearish short term to me.

Happy New Year to All!!
 
Uptrend said:
Could be building the right side of a H&S on SPX, with a downside target to 1042, should there be a break of the neckline. If that is the case the market should flounder around betweeen 1084 -1119 for most of January 2010 to balance the left side, and then shoot for the 1042 target. We'll see.
Happy New Year to All!!
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Uptrend, Don't you mean 1142:confused: That's going up, we like up. You said 1042.:blink: That's going down, we do not like down, no we do not.......:rolleyes:


back atcha for next year.
 
We are all even on the tracker menu and neatly in alpha order.

From study this weekend, I am quite clueless what might happen. Here are some tidbits:

A turning point might be in the cards in the January 15-18 period. If this plays out, the market should advance soon to an important pivot near SPX 1168. The turning point is based on fibonacci relationships of time and price.

The market may retest the March 09 lows, or even take them out around August of 2010, based on cycle theory.

Volatility should increase, with steep drops here and there. Makes risky TSP trades.

In an up market price is confirmed by breath. In a falling market price loss is confirmed by momentum.

What do I expect? I am thinking we may have seen the low at SPX 1115 in the last hour on Dec 31, with upside starting Monday Jan 4th. Buy signal may happen fast for < 2 week trade. The 1115 low dovetails with EWT as the end of a minute wave 4 (downwave). Since waves 1 and 3 were short from the 1086 low, being 30 points and 36 points, TA says that wave 5 will be the longest. Be ready for the boyz to make a push up. Jan might be one of the best trades. But then again, can you read the tea leaves? Can anybody?
 
Uptrend,

The combined stuff I read agrees with your short-term prognosis pretty much. I'm expecting a smaller rally though, up to 1150ish, topping on 1/20ish, with my current anticipated bail-out date being 1/19. Then comes the first significant fall since July, down 10% or more, bottoming in late February-ish, then the market surprises again and hit's higher peaks in early April, early May, then the final top in August. Then it's down down down for several years as the deflationary forces defeat the Fed's money printing efforts. If the bearish prognosticators are right, this is going to be a disasterous decade for the unprepared Boomers and already retired folks that try to stick with stocks after August.

I heard this guy on Coast to Coast AM last night, and in the past on financialsense.com. He's kinda "out there", but has made some great calls in the past. http://www.nowpublic.com/world/gera...s-2010-trends-research-institute-2549227.html Hope he's wrong about the major terrorist attack prediction.
 
Birchtree said:
Tsunami,

I'll be watching to see if your money walks the talk - or if your money just talks.
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This year it's an all or nothing game. The pit crew has completed training. The racemobile is ready to roll. Gentlemen start your engines! Game on! :cool::cool::cool:
 
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