Uptrend's Account Talk

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Uptrend said:
Thanks love-to bike, Christopher, Steadygain and everyone else I may have missed for your kind comments. Merry Christmas to all!

Merry Christmas to You and Yours!!
Click to expand...

Uptrend,
Your financial input is one of the greatest strengths of this MB and for that alone you are deeply appreciated by everyone. Your personal witness is also incredible and I very much admire the man you are... even if you are a little rascal.

Hoping you and yours have the best Christmas ever !!
 
Up,

Almost did the same but am hoping on continued $ weakness to take me through at least the first part of next week. Early earning forcast reports may take us through that 1118ish mark. We'll have to wait into the last hour or two of trading to know which was we're headed.

Regardless, this year has been a blessing to many of us after last falls meltdown. Let us all accept what we have and have a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
 
Now this is real news. Market manipulation for sure. Zero hedge is one of my favorite reads. Now we know what those little gaps up in the morning are all about.

"all the upside since September 14th has come exclusively from after hours action. The chart below demonstrates the relative performance of regular hour trading in the SPY as well as that in the extended session. The notable observations: gaps, gaps, gaps. Every single day, minimal volume pushes the futures index higher. Good news, bad news, it don't matter to the Goldman S&P and Russell 1000 futures desk: they just lift every micro offer, giving the impression that the market is unstoppable, often leapfrogging each other as the latest viagra'ed GDP or unemployment rumor is spread. Come morning, it is time for the HFT brigade to come in and scalp their trillions of pennies while leaving the market unchanged, then at 4pm handing it off again to leveraged futures manipulation and dark pools. In a nutshell, this is the secret of the past quarter's phenomenal market performance."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/th...you-exclude-constant-after-hours-manipulation
 
Buried way down in the comments (after the debate on the next presidential candidate) was this counter view on the above quote from ZH:

"Doesn't he know futures move the market as they represent shares of the underlying indexes? Does he not understand that the u.s. market is connected to foreign exchange as well as other global markets? Stocks have been making most of their gains overnight for at least the last 20 years. I hate scare monger bs like this. Nothing is wrong here, the market is acting like it always does. The main thing to take away is that there are a lot of overseas markets buying up US stocks and they do they overnight through futures. Big deal. Yaaaawwwn. ":confused:
 
Bond yields are on the rise. View the 10 year treasury note TNX:

View attachment 7735

This is the TNX weekly. You can see the yields broke down out of the rising wedge in August, went sideways to slightly upwards in a channel the last several months, and since December 1 have shot upwards piercing the 50 and 20 emas as well as a bullish falling wedge (green line). The MACD is above the 0 line with a bullish cross, and the RSI is strengthening, so the run is far from over yet.

Here is the daily yield curve from the US Treasury:

http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/yield.shtml

You can see the difference in the 10 year yield from December 1 -24 was 3.28 to 3.82 = +0.54. That is 54 basis points of 0.54% yield increase.

As the yield curve slope increases, credit will be harder to obtain. This might kill the recovery. This is bad for bond fund (TSP F fund) prices. The TSP F fund moved down 0.1771 or 1.3% since December 1.

Merry Christmas!
 
Finally after all this time we have achieved some common ground. Even if the fed doesn't boost rates initially, the bond market will.
 
A good friend of mine who follows me in this market talk forum, has given me H*** recently because, of the two signals on the signature line going different ways. Says it's too confusing, and asks "How can you be in and out of the market at the same time"? Ok I'm guilty, but let me try and explain. Look at post #1313 and also consider this: You are playing the "Wheel of Fortune" and can solve the puzzle and land on the $1000 that might have the $10,000 jackpot behind it (Viewers at home know). Do you solve the word puzzle and secure the $ that round, or do you gamble that $10,000 is on the other side of the card? If it is bankrupt, you lose everything for the turn, but if there is $10,000, you gain. What you do is a matter of risk. In a similar way, that is what the different exit ponts are trying to do - take a sure allotment of gain, or wait around for more with an increasing chance of loss. Look at the SPX daily chart:

View attachment 7736

The blue rectangles are the Quick Bite (QB) and the blue + gray are the Seven Course Meal (7CM). The entry points are the same, but the exit points are determined on increasing levels of risk. In the active trade that has started last Wednesday (IFT on 12/15 Tuesday), the entry point was slightly off (can't always hit it), and we see the QB has taken money to the bank (went to G Wednesday 12/23), while the 7CM wants more. Don't we all want more? Well it depends. How much do you believe that when a reversal happens you will have time to get out? It's a matter of risk.
 
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Would it not be the difference between buying the dips and selling the peaks on a short term basis versus hanging on for the long term? It makes perfect sense to me. Looking back for several months, I would have done much better selling at the middle of the month and buying at the first of each month. The Fund I seemed to be peaking at the middle of the month.

Why would anyone complain about free information from another point of view? While I am at it, people should limit their discussions here to things which directly affect the market. Politics is very inflammatory even though it affects the markets long term. You have to take everything with a grain of salt and reflect on it. Everyone has different life experience and what is true for one person in one location may not be true for another person in another location.

Personal tragedies of celebrities have no bearing upon the markets. The market does not see race, religion, or other inflammatory topics. The market only sees money in and money out. Money flows to the area where it sees the most chance for the greatest profit for the owner.

This is just my opinion which may be relevant to you or not. Feel free to express yours but arguments are not necessary. Simply state you opinion and leave it at that. Debate explaining why you believe a certain thing is good but argument and personal attack is not necessary.
 
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wwwtractor said:
...Politics is very inflammatory even though it affects the markets long term. You have to take everything with a grain of salt and reflect on it. Everyone has different life experience and what is true for one person in one location may not be true for another person in another location. ... Feel free to express yours but arguments are not necessary. Simply state you opinion and leave it at that. ...
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Eloquently said,Tractor, and I couldn't agree more. There are some days when I long for the time not so long ago when we were all thinking the Hatch Act was going to get us. So we didn't post about politics at all. Now sometimes it feels like people think they are vying for "Most Acrimonious Poster" Award. :o

Lady
 
The SPX upper channel boundary is between 1130-1133. This area will offer significant resistance, so I don't expect the current market push to go beyond this area this week. Am expecting a little downdraft soon, perhaps to go test the 1107 pivot one more time.
 
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