Uptrend's Account Talk

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Depends. After all, we have been "asked" to cut our budgets. Also, if you are going to retire, December is often the best month due to the carryover of leave - to cut budgets, just don't fill the space.
 
My system seemed to trip late to buy for C S, but it works with a ruleset. The TSP I fund is not included in todays buy mode, because the US dollar TA shows a decline ahead. Moving to a C S split today, with more weight to S.

Financials undervalued?
"Analysts are more bullish on bank stocks in the S&P 500 than any other industry based on their average share-price forecasts, which call for a 14 percent rally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That would extend the group’s 145 percent rally since March that was spurred by better economic data and government rescues of companies from New York-based Citigroup Inc. to American International Group Inc.
The industry has risen the most of 10 in the S&P 500 during the past 10 months. The benchmark index itself gained 2.7 percent last week and closed at 1,144.98 on Jan. 8. The gauge added 0.3 percent to 1,148.7 as of 9:34 a.m. in New York.
The S&P 500 Financials Index of 78 banks, brokerages and insurers remains down 60 percent since peaking in February 2007. The slump is twice the drop of the S&P 500, which has lost 27 percent from its October 2007 record, after the subprime mortgage market collapse caused $1.71 trillion in losses and writedowns for financial firms worldwide and led to the demise of New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos., data compiled by Bloomberg show."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOzcv87Juyq8&pos=3
 
Thankyou so very much for that confirmation. I bought many when they were know as toxic waste and smelled so bad I had to hold my nose everytime I made a purchase.
 
Uptrend said:
Moving to a C S split today, with more weight to S.
Click to expand...

Sorry my friend :embarrest: I should have come here first but Grandma and Birch distracted me... :p


So I'll be a day behind cause I missed the cut off ...


I'm ready to move too but was hoping for a 3 to maybe 5% drop to go in on ..... Markets don't seem to care what I think though.. :rolleyes::(
 
The 1 extra day out of the market may have been a good mistake. But it seems that the market has been finishing strong in the last hour inspite of slow starting days.
 
From Toms commentary yesterday:
The dollar's weakness yesterday took me a little by surprise. I have been expecting a breakout to the upside of this big bull flag, but it looks like it wanted to give at least one more push lower.

011210b.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The fact the dollar's resistance came from the 200-day EMA could be a problem for the bullish case, so the battle between the 200-day EMA resistance and the bullish bull flag formation continues."

View attachment 7949

Here is a comparison on the dollar/DX futures on the hourly. (There is a 38.2% fibonacci retracement on the daily so far.) Back to the hourly, the dollar is trapped between a support and resistance line with the 200 ema overhead. You can see the red downward sloping channel. And the MACD is below the value of 0 with a bearish cross. RSI is heading down, but is not oversold. Conclusion; the dollar should suffer more short-term loss or just stalemate. Or it might in a few days rise back up, but slam into the intersection of the dropping 200 ema and the overhead resistance line. To be bullish, the dollar needs to clear the 200 ema and the upper boundary of the red channel for a breakout. Right now, the downward slope is against it.
 
Good stuff as usual Uptrend !


I'm hoping today is the 'First' sign of weakness - of a long overdue dip


Tomorrow -- hallaleuiah -- should be the 'Big Fall' :blink::laugh:

Then I'll go 70/30 - S/C
 
Report from a very good technician:
“The momentum is going to stay to the positive side,” Mary Ann Bartels, a New York-based analyst at Bank of America Corp. who studies charts to make forecasts, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Jan. 6. She was the second- ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s 2009 survey. “In the first quarter, what the indicators are telling us is that the trend is up.” Bartels sees the S&P 500 rising to 1,230, or 8.3 percent higher than yesterday’s closing price.

Some observations for higher prices:

The market has been forming a consolidation base for 7-8 weeks of last Nov -Dec broke to the upside out of it. That is why the SPX 1115 -1120 area is so important. The breakout. The market is resting on the 1133 pivot which is a very important level. Yesterday did not destroy this pivot.

The TNX 10 year treasury note yield has has broke out of a major trendline on the weekly. This is significant. The breakout came in early December 2009. For the last 3 weeks a retest of the broken trendline is underway, and also is trying to clear the 200 ema. Using the inverse; yields up, prices down and no safety play so market up. In the long run yields up may hurt the market.
 
Uptrend said:
Bartels sees the S&P 500 rising to 1,230, or 8.3 percent higher than yesterday’s closing price.
Click to expand...

Can I have this this afternoon? I'll be done for the year - hahaha:laugh:

I listen to Bartels. She has been very solid in predictions and has very nice returns!

Always on your "A" game Uptrend....:D
 
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