Uptrend's Account Talk

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SPX is having trouble with the 1091 pivot and is staying below. SPX threw a pin through the bottom of the trading rectangle at 1088 the market has traded within for the last 20+ days but can't get below. SPX is testing the bottom of box again as I write this marketwatch. For more downside SPX market has to go below 1088. Russell (RUT) has made it below 593.8 support level.
 
Uptrend said:
BTW, Q Who is on the other side of the trade? Is it the devil? No folks, it is just Bernanke and Wall Street!
Click to expand...

Sidways action for the last quarter of the year in a stellar year means one thing in my opinion... a way for institutional money that missed the big gains to play catch up if they can play the range correctly. So, when the year's all said and done, they looked like they weren't leaning on the wrong side for half a year. Central banks want the big money cooperating on the long side going into the New Year... there is no way they want all this world wide stimulus to be a 1 and done deal... the goal has been to get the big caps cash rich again so they can hire. Do you really think Central Banks get together at these summits and figure out a way to screw up the whole schebang?
 
Here is some information as to why my system is in bonds. The charts made the call, as we will see below, but first some commentary:
"Treasuries are an investment which offers a poor yield, are vulnerable to losses in the expected environment, are in constant and abundant supply, and whose historical buyers are increasingly questionable.
So why aren't yields steepling higher already?
The answer has two dimensions. First, there is the current alternative. Leaving aside risk assets the choice faced by portfolio investors is to hold cash earning nothing or bonds earning 2, 3, 4%. By extension banks can borrow at close to zero % and earn the 2, 3, 4. So while interest rates remain low, as the Fed promises investors will be the case for an extended period, there is easy money to be made in an expensive asset.
The second dimension is what the consequences will be of a sharp rise in yields. With the economy structurally weak and the budget deficit so high a rise in yields is likely to have a significant dampening effect on growth, and on the already weak fiscal position. This is the reason why the Fed continues to talk the prospects of rate rises down"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/177243-time-to-buy-treasuries

Now to the charts:
View attachment 7556
This is the 5 year treasury note futures /ZF daily, but you could look at AGG and see nearly the same pattern. We see an upward channel from the low on June 08. The vertical yellow lines show the lows in this channel and note that the RSI was below 30 just prior to each uptrend. We now see a new uptrend that started on December 07. We see that the stochastic has a bullish cross and RSI moving up toward 50 (when values exceed 50 the uptrend will gain strength).

Because the US government is deep in the red, banks will buy treasuries with their free money and make whatever the yield gives them. As volatility increases in the markets over the coming months, and IMO it will, managers will run to the safety of treasuries. BTY, since the start of the green upchannel in June, the F fund has gained 7.36% The channel shows no signs of breaking down.
 
Day 24 in the narrow band trading range. The struggle between the bulls and bears continues. Possibly a lower high being put in this AM. SPX had a lower high on 12/7 of 1110.72 (after the 1119.13 high last Friday), a lower low of 1085.89 yesterday and a lower high today (top so far) of 1106.25 after a little gap up. Staristep down. Candles on hourly suggest a failure swing, but we will see. Dollar chart is consolidating, is above the 50 dma for third day, and should make another run.

I see we had the "cash for clunkers", and now "cash for caulkers" is being proposed for up to $12000 per residence. Goes towards energy efficiency like windows, heating and cooling systems. I don't know about solar, makes sense, but did not read anything there. Government will probably propose "cash for crooks" next spring; wait that happened already with TARP.
 
[
I see we had the "cash for clunkers", and now "cash for caulkers" is being proposed for up to $12000 per residence. Goes towards energy efficiency like windows, heating and cooling systems. I don't know about solar, makes sense, but did not read anything there. Government will probably propose "cash for crooks" next spring; wait that happened already with TARP.[/QUOTE]
TARP, werent they first :eek:
 
kar crazy said:
[
I see we had the "cash for clunkers", and now "cash for caulkers" is being proposed for up to $12000 per residence. Goes towards energy efficiency like windows, heating and cooling systems. I don't know about solar, makes sense, but did not read anything there. Government will probably propose "cash for crooks" next spring; wait that happened already with TARP.
Click to expand...
TARP, werent they first :eek:[/QUOTE]

Sounds like more energy efficient appliances will be a big push also, heck I might take advantage of that one myself :rolleyes:
 
Hey Pansy A**

I want the 'System' fixed TODAY !!!

I should be 100% S right now -- and that's what is should have told me.



oh BTW -- a beautiful ativar
 
mayday said:
What fund are you in?
Click to expand...

I'm 100% G Fund :nuts:


Yeah, I thought hey things can't stay this lousy much longer and I should jump in and grab some money....


......but The System -- told me 'stay in G' :rolleyes:


Anyway -- I just like to razz him a little here and there :cool::cool:


 
Crazy market huh? Goin nowhere. The BB on SPX are tight, so the spring is set to snap. Up or down is the question. I note that there is still a rather tight correlation of the US dollar and equities, as their has been from the March lows. It has not always been this way, but is for now, and that is part of my forecast, unless someone can prove different. Here is recent US dollar, futures /DX 15 minute chart action since last Friday.

View attachment 7630

Note that the accelerated channel is intact, even with this AM little market hurahh. This is goin somewhere, as there is room to roam.

On the weekly equities charts for the last several months, a two week up and then two week down cycle has been occurring. This week and next week are in the down cycle. For this OEX week, commercial puts have been increasing, while noncommercial calls have been increasing.

What am I saying? Looking for red this week. Bonds were near a sell Friday on my system, but still are holding, with some improvement this AM. Happy Trading.
 
I like to add that S funds has been doing better than the C fund over the last two possibly three trading sessions. Even when Nasdaq has been flat to down...the S fund has been doing "the santa effect". :D
 
SPX and Russell trying to break out -it's a tug of war. Poking higher and then trying to backfill. TZA hit 10.40 this AM -think that is the lowest it has been - waiting for that 8-9 buying opportunity. Looking for the big break up when the fed announces nothing (keep rates steady) at 2:15 ET.

Thinking a quick move to SPX 1124, then 1133, then off to 1165. Massive short covering would start happening around 1115-1125. This could be a 5% trade to the upside. On the downside, if SPX breaks 1085, I'm gone to the cave. One way or another, there will be a resolution to the sideways trading pattern that developed over the last month. Christmas present, or grinch?
 
Tradiing pattern feels bullish to me. A breakout is the path of least resistance. Short covering likely. No change to current thinking about breaking to new highs. A 5 percent run sounds like a doable target. C fund and S fund look attractive here. All in real and play money. :)

Merrry Christmas to all. :D
 
felixthecat said:
Tradiing pattern feels bullish to me. A breakout is the path of least resistance. Short covering likely. No change to current thinking about breaking to new highs. A 5 percent run sounds like a doable target. C fund and S fund look attractive here. All in real and play money. :)

Merrry Christmas to all. :D
Click to expand...
Santa rally on its way!:cool:
 
If the SPX can hold here @ 1101, it will be the 6th day above the 20 ema. This should be the return line to the upside. If not, there may be problems ahead. Watch this level. I see it is slightly below right now, but the daily close is what counts. This could be a pivotal day.
 
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