Uptrend's Account Talk

[felixthecat]

Just for clarification, am all in on the TSP money. However, my real money stance is still prove the volume on breakout before I invest. There is still the possibility that the dollar could remain bullish and that the market remain remains in a controlled teeter state. I moved a small amount of real money into equities to play a caution stance. May move the rest based on Friday's action.

 

[shitepoke]

Appreciate the charts/system/analysis Uptrend. Feels like a premium service in itself...

E

 

[jdphx]

The longer we go sideways the larger the dam break will be, up or down. The dollar has been selling off Sunday night. Could Monday be the breakout day?

Well that is exciting AND scary too!!!!

Even though I know that our TSP accounts are NOT
for any gambling... your quote above makes the
"inner-gambler" in me more than just a wee bit excited!!!

Let's take it up UT!!

 

[Uptrend]

I am watching the dollar trade - It flat took off

View attachment 7445

This is the daily chart of the US Dollar futures /DX. We see the sharp rise (wide range candle today) when the employment numbers came out, we see positive movement in the last few trading sessions, a bullish cross on the MACD, upward sloping MACD histogram, and an improving RSI. The big breakout is up there around 75.8. If the dollar takes off, it is bad for the market and bad for the I fund.

 

[Uptrend]

Something is up - I can feel it. Todays jump does not line up with the charts. Call it a blow off top. Well it is not a classic one. Call it gov cooked numbers. Did you know that the labor dept. still has not made corrections on the birth/death rate; and the effect is to underestimate unemployment.

“Bottom line, the data is a clear positive but doesn’t square with other info,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, in a note to clients. “But let’s enjoy it for today.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afykpvWQeIfQ&pos=2

The SPX has now backed off (currently 1104) where no breakout has occurred. This is day 19 trading in a small rectangular box that goes from 1088 to 1113. The bulls had their fun trying to breakout of the box today but were chilled at 1119. Now it is the bears turn. Still holding short positions.

The big move has not happened yet! The longer we trade and close in the box the bigger the move should become. Technicals tell me down. Happy Trading.

 

[350zCommTech]

Something is up - I can feel it. Todays jump does not line up with the charts. Call it a blow off top. Well it is not a classic one. Call it gov cooked numbers. Did you know that the labor dept. still has not made corrections on the birth/death rate; and the effect is to underestimate unemployment.

“Bottom line, the data is a clear positive but doesn’t square with other info,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, in a note to clients. “But let’s enjoy it for today.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afykpvWQeIfQ&pos=2

The SPX has now backed off (currently 1104) where no breakout has occurred. This is day 19 trading in a small rectangular box that goes from 1088 to 1113. The bulls had their fun trying to breakout of the box today but were chilled at 1119. Now it is the bears turn. Still holding short positions.

The big move has not happened yet! The longer we trade and close in the box the bigger the move should become. Technicals tell me down. Happy Trading.

Thanksgiving sales were below expectations. I was there on Friday and saw it. Retailers like WalMart didn't stock up for Christmas. Rail traffic was still down. But retailers added temp jobs? :nuts:

 

[Uptrend]

Real unemployment rate is 17.2% "The official unemployment rate is 10.0%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is..." (See Table A-12 in link, lower right corner)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/jobs-contract-23rd-straight-month.html

 

[Uptrend]

Think Bernanke should stay in power? Look at the money flood he he ordered.


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBNS

 

[Uptrend]

Watching the US dollar trade carefully as the market has a very tight correlation; despite what some say. Will pot a chart in a few minutes.

 

[Uptrend]

This is a bullish chart of the US dollar futures /DX in a daily timeframe
View attachment 7512

The dollar has broke out of the bullish falling wedge; an uptrending channel and is busting through the 50 ema at the presnet. Notice the run took off shortly after the RSI neared the value of 30 (oversold). There is a bullish cross on the MACD and the histogram is sloping up. First target of real resistance is the pink line coming in near 77.6

Based on this chart alone; I expect some weakness the first part of this week, possibly until Wednesday or Thursday. Then when resistance is hit, I expect a counter reaction, the US dollar to drop, and the Christmas rally to begin. The SPX could trade down to around 1065, but I don't see it going much lower. Of course you know this is just pure guessing, as IMO nobody really knows where the market is really going near term. Trade Carefully.

 

[Uptrend]

Well, since the last post the US dollar is selling off quickly and having trouble getting through the 50 ema on the daily chart. If it does not clear today, the rally probably starts.

 

[coolhand]

This is a bullish chart of the US dollar futures /DX in a daily timeframe
View attachment 7512

The dollar has broke out of the bullish falling wedge; an uptrending channel and is busting through the 50 ema at the presnet. Notice the run took off shortly after the RSI neared the value of 30 (oversold). There is a bullish cross on the MACD and the histogram is sloping up. First target of real resistance is the pink line coming in near 77.6

Based on this chart alone; I expect some weakness the first part of this week, possibly until Wednesday or Thursday. Then when resistance is hit, I expect a counter reaction, the US dollar to drop, and the Christmas rally to begin. The SPX could trade down to around 1065, but I don't see it going much lower. Of course you know this is just pure guessing, as IMO nobody really knows where the market is really going near term. Trade Carefully.

Good analysis. I'm not convinced the dollar breakout is the real deal. At least not yet, and maybe not for some time. This short term trend could be another hook for the bears, which is why I'm not ready to give too much credence to a significant drop in stock prices. Those employment numbers from last week were surprising, but superficial to say the least.

 

[Uptrend]

The 610 level on the Russell 2000 is the approximate breakout area. Currently trading at 606.07, up 2.28 today. Watch this level.

 

[Uptrend]

The market has rev's, but is in nuetral. It's running in place. Dollar can't decide. Going nowhere fro now. Holding my shorts until I see a direction.

 

[felixthecat]

Not sure at all what do do here, but just let the cards unfold some to clear the fuzzy picture. Get in the equity market right now and be early for a 2-3 day slide...then recover or the Dollar this afternoon continues to weaken and off to the races. Since I have no clear picture, still using daily December historical pattern to lay the money down which isn't for another few days. Continue to monitor, anybody have a crystal ball for equities? The only thing I'm sure off...S fund would be my choice to have some small haven for rising dollar. Still pondering move...got another 15 minutes.

 

[Uptrend]

A buy has been issued by the system on F today.

 

[Uptrend]

The US dollar is making a serious attempt to bust through the 50 ema on the futures /DX chart. Based on what I am seeing in bonds, negative divergences, gold, etc etc; looks like a go for the dollar - for now. SPX knocking on the rectangular box floor where the market has traded for 21 days in a narrow range - lets see if the floor at 1087 fails.

 

[Uptrend]

SPX back in the box at 1095, but bear flag on the chart. Expect to be below the box today. Russell is the strongest on not wanting to give up gains. TZA short is having a tough go.

 

[Uptrend]

Some key levels are still intact, but for how long?

Market appears to want to roll over. Blah Blah Blah; just say technicals.

Consider:
-We have not had a correction of any sort since June, which was 9%
-Based on time we are due (9% takes SPX down to 1018).
-The last several OPEX have pushed the market up, because of > puts,
but with Christmas rally expectations, (> calls) why not push down?
-Bond prices are up
-Oil and gold still falling
-Dollar countertrend underway.

Possible scenario. Market falls for the next 2 weeks and then a rally into January back up to 1120 area. That would make twin tops with a valley in between. Remember the Fed is the biggest hedge fund out there, and they can manipulate the market.

BTW, Q Who is on the other side of the trade? Is it the devil? No folks, it is just Bernanke and Wall Street!

 

[350zCommTech]

Possible scenario. Market falls for the next 2 weeks and then a rally into January back up to 1120 area. That would make twin tops with a valley in between. Remember the Fed is the biggest hedge fund out there, and they can manipulate the market.

BTW, Q Who is on the other side of the trade? Is it the devil? No folks, it is just Bernanke and Wall Street!

LOL!!!! So true......

The stock market is the only thing that has recovered from the recession.