Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

I'm a back bencher, but I was wondering about up coming Black Friday (shoppers in stores and online) How will Wall Street react to a good or a bad day?

It seems to me results will not filter in until Monday, November 30. That day will be telling.

Back to bonds, and the upcoming Fed auctions next week of 115 billion. I note yesterday there was some inflation uptick, even though slight, and that may be spooking bonds. "TIPS spreads did widen sharply Wednesday and the bottom line is "the market is becoming worried about inflation," according to Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Not hyperinflation, not crazy inflation but inflation nonetheless."
Bond futures are up this AM, probably market fear,so I am thinking about exiting and going to G on an up day. There is no definite sell signal yet for bonds at all, but they can move rather quickly when they do. I am just holding on to profits, and then will wait for the next equity IFT in December when C and S are on sale.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/374736/Why-Is-the-Fed-Still-at-Zero-Bernanke-Playing-with-Inflation-Fire-Peter-Boockvar-Says?tickers=GLD,TBT,TIP,UDN,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Today's action so far could spell trouble for C and S, but we will see. There are no definate sell signals on my systems. However, there is a big red sell candle at the open, and the market needs to find support at 1085, or I am sure my system will exit at the close. Keep in mind the system sell points can take losses, but that is what you pay for trying to milk the last dollar.

 

[Uptrend]

Is there a relationship between Tractor's post on Bloomberg's sale & that the Feds are thinking about doing it?

Thre is no relationship between a foreign country selling bonds and our US government selling bonds to cover the growing debt.

 

[Steadygain]

Is there a relationship between Tractor's post on Bloomberg's sale & that the Feds are thinking about doing it?

I would say that's highly likely -- and that's an excellent question Grandma.

When I've been talking about 'manipulation' of course I'm referring to Governments working together -- and especially the Fed and Treasury and everyone Political doing everything possible.

The huge BENEFIT of this site --- is the very fact that there are enough people digging out the details -- so we see first hand what's happening.

THEY ARE LOOKING TO 'GET MONEY' -- AND PUSH 'THE GOOD NEWS'


Of course I probably misread your question and Uptrend gave the answer you were looking for. I thought your question was more 'Do you see a relationship in what they're doing'.

They are going to do everything possible to 'Get Money and stive to make things look good' -- in that sense I see a very strong relationship and I'd bet behind the scenes they're working together to make it happen. \

Just noticed I'm starting to use 'CAPS' again -- sorry everyone -- a habit I'm trying to break

 

[350zCommTech]

The direction of bonds are not clear either. Little fall today, but trend is still up. However, the concern is that the US gov will sell about 115 billion in 2, 5 and 7 year notes next week. That is right 115 billion. I can't even think that big. Huge supply, and I would like to think that means higher yields and lower prices to attract buyers. All selling must be done Monday -Wednesday because of Thanksgiving. IMO this will probably put downward pressure on price, and even though chart technicals are in buy mode, I may step aside (sell to G) because a price fall could happen with excessive supply. Here is a further read:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/174022-bond-expert-wednesday-outlook
Comments welcome

Back to bonds, and the upcoming Fed auctions next week of 115 billion. I note yesterday there was some inflation uptick, even though slight, and that may be spooking bonds. "TIPS spreads did widen sharply Wednesday and the bottom line is "the market is becoming worried about inflation," according to Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Not hyperinflation, not crazy inflation but inflation nonetheless."
Bond futures are up this AM, probably market fear,so I am thinking about exiting and going to G on an up day. There is no definite sell signal yet for bonds at all, but they can move rather quickly when they do. I am just holding on to profits, and then will wait for the next equity IFT in December when C and S are on sale.

I mentioned yesterday that they need to cause a panic if they want bond yields to really drop from here. Look at the move in the TNX today. 16 handles down on the SPX and bond yields barely budged. Yields are now moving up as the markets are coming off the lows. That is the positive correlation I talked about yesterday. Also, if next week's autions don't go well, both bonds and stocks could be under pressure. Now, is it worth an IFT to sidestep a potential risk in the F fund, I don't know. It was for me.

View attachment 7279

 

[Uptrend]

I mentioned yesterday that they need to cause a panic if they want bond yields to really drop from here. Look at the move in the TNX today. 16 handles down on the SPX and bond yields barely budged. Yields are now moving up as the markets are coming off the lows. That is the positive correlation I talked about yesterday. Also, if next week's autions don't go well, both bonds and stocks could be under pressure. Now, is it worth an IFT to sidestep a potential risk in the F fund, I don't know. It was for me.

View attachment 7279

350 Thanks for your analysis.
Your TNX chart clearly shows the candlestick congestion against the lower BB, the bullish cross on the stochastic, and the MACD histogram moving up. So I too have stepped aside today, from F to G, as the bond prices should be running into headwinds.

 

[350zCommTech]

350 Thanks for your analysis.
Your TNX chart clearly shows the candlestick congestion against the lower BB, the bullish cross on the stochastic, and the MACD histogram moving up. So I too have stepped aside today, from F to G, as the bond prices should be running into headwinds.

You're welcome.

 

[Uptrend]

My system has sold the F fund today.

C,S, I are still in buy (hold) mode. Until we see the SPX market make several closes below the 20 ema, we can assume the uptrend is not over. The 20 ema is currently coming in at 1085. Approximately 1133 is now a technical and logical target on the charts. The market could retrace to the 20 ema at 1085 or the 50 ema coming in at 1065 before heading up there. Comments welcome.

View attachment 7297

 

[350zCommTech]

My system has sold the F fund today.

C,S, I are still in buy (hold) mode. Until we see the SPX market make several closes below the 20 ema, we can assume the uptrend is not over. The 20 ema is currently coming in at 1085. Approximately 1133 is now a technical and logical target on the charts. The market could retrace to the 20 ema at 1085 or the 50 ema coming in at 1065 before heading up there. Comments welcome.

I see support at just below 1080, but that might be a one day bounce before we go lower. That is what I'm getting from the currencies.

 

[Steadygain]

My system has sold the F fund today.

C,S, I are still in buy (hold) mode.

WOW !!

I'm thrilled for that ~~ didn't have time to check this morning.

 

[Uptrend]

A sell has triggered for my system from C, S and I to the safety fo G. The trade must be taken Nov 23.

I am actually working on two different trading stragegies and corresponding systems that work with the thrift board IFT limations. The system you see on the signature block could be called the Seven Course Meal System. Under this system, you hang around in the market, with market exposure of course, even when the party seems to be over, because you want desert. In other words you are trying to maximize the trend as much as possible. When there is a measure of uncertianty, you must hang around because you don't know if there will be another blast upwards or not. This system has pretty good buy in points, but can take some losses near the exit.

The second strategy could be called the Big Bite System. You have a similar buy in point as in the Seven Course Meal System, but gulp down your food and get out quickly, even leaving food on the table. This is because you desire capital preservation, grow your capital quickly on a momentum and trend based system, and keep the least market exposure possible. You don't want a 9/11 impacting your account. When a signal is given, you may trade in from G to C, S, and I, only to move back to safety a short time later (days rather than weeks). If you watch my moves starting from October 2009 on the tracker, this is the system I am using. Under certian conditions, you will swing to F and then G. Under Thrift Board IFT rules, you may be subject to lockout (met 2 trades in a month criteria other than G), and therefore may only be able to trade a limited amount of times each year. Even so, I expect this system to have double digit gains. Give it a year and we shall see.

Diclaimer: Thse are my trading strategies, under development, that are being shared. Each person should seek a financial planners advice before deciding a course of action involving allocations between the various TSP funds.

 

[Uptrend]

On Friday, Nov 20, the SPX market was testing the 20 ema and is still above. However, momentum is weakening. The chart shows negative divergences on the RSI, MACD and ADX over the last several months. This basically shows that as the price has moved higher the momentum indicators are weaker on each successive rally. The market seems to be forming a head and shoulders topping pattern.

The vertical green lines show that each time the market got oversold on the RSI (values near 30) the market has rallied. Interesting.

The big purple circle in August/September on the SPX candlestick chart, shows that when the market was fresh, it took off each time it hit the 20 ema. However, later on in October, we see the market down near the 50 ema and in November sagging briefly beneath the 50 ema. This is further evidence of a weakening market. The next failure of the 50 ema, is lookout.

View attachment 7322

 

[Uptrend]

I expected the upsurge today, although it was a little stronger than expected. This has been the Monday pattern lately. I don't care about the media BS about improving economies; the charts tell a different story (Take a peek at my last post). Now it looks like either a double top, or if it gets taken out, then about SPX 1124 channel boundary which is also the 50% fibonacci retracement of the entire bear market will be the next major resistance, and 1133 above that. I am thinking double top at 1111. If it could be that easy.

 

[grandma]

A sell has triggered for my system from C, S and I to the safety fo G. The trade must be taken Nov 23.

I am actually working on two different trading stragegies and corresponding systems that work with the thrift board IFT limations.
.....Under certian conditions, you will swing to F and then G. Under Thrift Board IFT rules, you may be subject to lockout (met 2 trades in a month criteria other than G), and therefore may only be able to trade a limited amount of times each year.between the various TSP funds.

Because of the limitations, is there a reason you don't leave even 1% in, say the F fund, so that you do have an opening should you want to do the <1% moves allowed? Perhaps unwisely, I started doing that when I discovered I wanted to move into F when there was a `buy' signal, but couldn't because it was empty.

 

[Uptrend]

Because of the limitations, is there a reason you don't leave even 1% in, say the F fund, so that you do have an opening should you want to do the <1% moves allowed? Perhaps unwisely, I started doing that when I discovered I wanted to move into F when there was a `buy' signal, but couldn't because it was empty.

Thanks Grandma I am not interested in <1% moves. Trying to capture the main trend. I feel the micro moves are just another loophole the Thrift Board will probably fix (lock), as there is some sort of trading cost associated with the trade.

 

[grandma]

Thanks Grandma I am not interested in <1% moves. Trying to capture the main trend. I feel the micro moves are just another loophole the Thrift Board will probably fix (lock), as there is some sort of trading cost associated with the trade.

okay, I respect that.

Now, for others, would your experience indicate there is an economic/market reason for not leaving a dab in?
Or is this just the `simple' choice of capturing all gain possible versus tolerating a 1% loss x's how many every funds you leave open?
I appreciate the input you share....thanx

 

[Christopher]

I popped my remaining 20% G into C/S before COB Thursday on it's drop, anticipating the Turkey Run. Plus, Oscar keeps screaming at us, "DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH THE DOWNSIDE!"...now, I realize he's a day trader, but his TA is worth some consideration when combined with SS, SCs, and the sage advice and moves of our beloved TSPTalk bloggers and headliners and ...imho.

...for others, would your experience indicate there is an economic/market reason for not leaving a dab in?
Or is this just the `simple' choice of capturing all gain possible versus tolerating a 1% loss x's how many every funds you leave open?
I appreciate the input you share....thanx

 

[nasa1974]

okay, I respect that.

Now, for others, would your experience indicate there is an economic/market reason for not leaving a dab in?
Or is this just the `simple' choice of capturing all gain possible versus tolerating a 1% loss x's how many every funds you leave open?
I appreciate the input you share....thanx

grandma,

I left some information on fedgolfer's account that might muddy the waters for you.:nuts:

 

[grandma]

grandma,

I left some information on fedgolfer's account that might muddy the waters for you.:nuts:

I'm looking at it in a minute - thanx!

 

[Uptrend]

There is no recovery driving the market. Yesterdays pop was mostly a currency trade; ie the falling dollar. Today we have a rising dollar and a falling Euro. I am watching key levels on the EUR/USD currency pair to time my short positions in the US markets.

My system says you should be in G, as it sold yesterday.

 

[Steadygain]

Thank You !!! My brother and friend

May they plummet to the depths of hell !!