Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Hey fedgolfer: I do agree with you 100%. I was just pointing out the sillyness in the market. And yes many traders are emotional. That is a hard lesson I had to learn - so that is why I am moving to a trading system - so the statistics can remain objective - and dictate the next move - regardless of pro and con arguments one could pose.

 

[fedgolfer]

cool, i didn't mean to step all over your thread either... we all like discussing politics but it seems like its getting into peoples' investing sentiment on the board. the rally isn't back by fundatmentals yet, but the initial rebound and wall of worry is NEVER backed by solid fundamentals, when it is, that's when the big boys start thinking about distribution. We're obviously a couple steps into accumulation and the investors and goldman's of the world love the wall of worry, and most of middle America is taking it hook line and sinker with the healthcare debate and other politcal rhetoric being thrown around, and we know they'll just end up the chasers and bagholders (it should be recognized as a good thing for bulls, since people insist to short at bad times). I'm just saying to anyone on the MB, don't let the politics/news work its way into your rationale. A rally from 666 to ~1030 is as real as a rally backed by fundamentals.

 

[Birchtree]

"The public was almost a year behind the curve in the 1995 recovery."

http://safehaven.com/article-14428.htm

 

[JTH]

Uptrend, FedGolfer


You guys are hitting the mark. My biggest mistakes this year was letting the economy influence my trading. Truth is, if I had shut out all the noise and followed the technicals only, I'd be much better off.

Still, I can't get over this economy and the bad news it generates. I've been played like a puppet this year...

 

[nasa1974]

Uptrend, FedGolfer


You guys are hitting the mark. My biggest mistakes this year was letting the economy influence my trading. Truth is, if I had shut out all the noise and followed the technicals only, I'd be much better off.

Still, I can't get over this economy and the bad news it generates. I've been played like a puppet this year...

JTH,

The problem is that the market has not really followed the technicals per say. There have been many days that good news has brought the market down and bad news days that the market has soared. So it has been difficult to drown out the background noise when you really should be listening. :cheesy:
The way the market has been lately you almost need that day trader wild card in your pocket to protect your account. Unfortunatly the FRTIB took away that safety net from us and forced us into "Buy and Holds" or non players. Either way your account suffers. At least we still have one trick up our sleeve. :laugh: Good luck to all of us.

 

[Bullitt]

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

--John Templeton


No way we've hit 'optimism' yet.

 

[fedgolfer]

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

--John Templeton


No way we've hit 'optimism' yet.

I love that quote... bumper sticker worthy. I should wear it on my forehand the next capitulation turn!

 

[Uptrend]

My system changed to a buy for C, S, I funds on the close yesterday. F is still in buy mode at this time, which is a little strange. I am looking into why there was a buy delay, while price gains were being ignored. The system makes very few transfers, and tends to hold the signals for days or months.

The VIX has broken below the major support level of 24, and the US dollar has broke a major support line to the downside and filled a gap a few days ago. The dollar is looking weak, and IMO is going to re-test it's previous lows, as it is in free-fall. The I fund should rip.

The market now has potential to rise to SPX 1060 as a minimum target and 1121 as a maximum target, before a significant pullback. Usually (but not always) no more than 7 while candlesticks appear in an advance, without some sort of pullback. The SPX chart suggests that 1013 is the pullback location. Even though my system turned buy and suggests all safe, I am waiting for the dip.

 

[JTH]

Even though my system turned buy and suggests all safe, I am waiting for the dip.

Hard to believe the gains we've seen this month, with a combination of "mixed" signals.

I happen to believe part of this move is based on the severe devaluation of the dollar. When the dollar holds its ground perhaps we'll see what this market is truly made of.

View attachment 6786

 

[mayday]

Hard to believe the gains we've seen this month, with a combination of "mixed" signals.

I happen to believe part of this move is based on the severe devaluation of the dollar. When the dollar holds its ground perhaps we'll see what this market is truly made of.

View attachment 6786

I think till the senate finance committee figures out how to pay for this health care reform package we will continue to see a decline in the dollar.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Even though my system turned buy and suggests all safe, I am waiting for the dip.

Hi Uptrend. Um not to sound disbelieving or anything, but how are we suppose to know if your system works if you don't follow its moves and instead go with your gut? I only ask because I have my own system and have gotten burned badly by going with my gut on occasion. I've also made several "adjustments" to it this year. It's a fairly new system hence the "adjustments". I also back-tested it several years and it works quite well. However, back-testing isn't real time trading no matter how you slice it. When you back-tested your data, did you tell yourself "I'm gonna wait for the dip" at different times? Doesn't seem like a very "systemic" system if you did?

Plus, my system went to a sell the same day yours went to a buy. :blink:

 

[mayday]

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1252648860.php

I like this post by Birch. Makes me want to sit tight.

 

[Steadygain]

I was just pointing out the sillyness in the market. And yes many traders are emotional.

That is a hard lesson I had to learn - so that is why I am moving to a trading system - so the statistics can remain objective - and dictate the next move - regardless of pro and con arguments one could pose.

My system changed to a buy for C, S, I funds on the close yesterday.

The system makes very few transfers, and tends to hold the signals for days or months.

Even though my system turned buy and suggests all safe, I am waiting for the dip.

 

[Uptrend]

Ok Steay, you got me! Actually, I am still in the process of backtesting, and noticed something in the trading system that is different in bear markets and bull markets. Right now we are technically in a "bull like" market, even in a bear market (in elliot wave terms; if this is the uptrending B wave of a major ABC bear market it is bullish). So, I am making a slight adjustment and will continue to backtest. This system will record losses in the daily timeframe, but captures the trends with few transfers. For example, the systems closing prices might decline 3% over a few days and then gain 7% over more days for a 4% net gain for the trade. It is trading market trends. I plan to jump in, when I have addressed these problems and completed more extensive backtesting.

Thanks for your keen insights and being the accountability officer!

 

[Uptrend]

My trading system is fairly new, and I have made some adjustments for better performance. So far I have backtested the S fund with the following results

2008 +15.25%
2009 + 49.24% (so far)

I reported The latest buy signal for September 11, but with a rule change adjustment the buy signal changed to September 4. I realize this is a huge change, and we will see how performance is going forward without any more changes to the trading system ruleset. No sell has been given as of close today. You will see me playing the next cycle.

 

[tom1tom1]

I think the S-fund is at the end of the run

My trading system is fairly new, and I have made some adjustments for better performance. So far I have backtested the S fund with the following results

2008 +15.25%
2009 + 49.24% (so far)

I reported The latest buy signal for September 11, but with a rule change adjustment the buy signal changed to September 4. I realize this is a huge change, and we will see how performance is going forward without any more changes to the trading system ruleset. No sell has been given as of close today. You will see me playing the next cycle.

 

[mdszj]

My trading system is fairly new, and I have made some adjustments for better performance. So far I have backtested the S fund with the following results

2008 +15.25%
2009 + 49.24% (so far)

I reported The latest buy signal for September 11, but with a rule change adjustment the buy signal changed to September 4. I realize this is a huge change, and we will see how performance is going forward without any more changes to the trading system ruleset. No sell has been given as of close today. You will see me playing the next cycle.

Uptrend

Just happened across your post, looks pretty like good returns. Have you been trading it with the tsp during 2008 and 2009? Looks like it could also be adapted easily to a non-tsp account also?

I have been following the seven sentinels which Coolhand keeps track of in his account talk.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend
Just happened across your post, looks pretty like good returns. Have you been trading it with the tsp during 2008 and 2009? Looks like it could also be adapted easily to a non-tsp account also?

I have been following the seven sentinels which Coolhand keeps track of in his account talk.

No, I decided to develop a trading system this year, based on reliable signals to take the human emotion out of trading. I would always find some reason to not go into the market, presumably because of fear. The trading system is empirical and trend based, so the system will work with several ETF's in a monthly timeframe. When I first mentioned the trading system a week or so ago, I then had a unreliable buy signal, and needed to make an adjustment, due to a non-conformance in the trading system. (talk about egg in the face!) I believe it is pretty reliable now, but time will tell. So, Caution it is under evaluation! On the next cycle, when buy occurs after a sell, I plan to follow the signals. Trading at the buy signal point would give maximum returns, rather than waiting further into the cycle. Wish me luck.

Yes, I know about the SS, but this system id different.

 

[mdszj]

that is good info. It is also good that it is a different system compared to the SS, hopefully relatively non-correlated. I will check it out and see how it works out for you.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is the morning situation on a chart. Have not even looked at the news. See chart:
View attachment 6796

This is the SPX in the hourly timeframe. The market has found support off the previous high at 1038 that was attained about two weeks ago. You can see the upward sloping channel I have identified. There is pretty good support at 1028 where a support line and the 50 ema meet. Below that at 1016 to 1018 there is a gap, yet to be filled. There is a negative divergence on the MACD and MACD histogram bars as I have drawn, but the market seems to want to push higher. MACD is a lagging indicator to some extent, so I expect an upward cross of the signal line today. You also can clearly see a small cup and handle formation. This measures to 1055, which is right at or a little above the top of the trading channel, as price moves in time.

I will IFT today to get onto my trading system, which is still in buy mode. Happy trading.