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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
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Uptrend
Well-known member
I have been watching the US Dollar Index for clues about our market direction. See chart:
View attachment 6775
This is the daily timeframe of the US Dollar Index Futures, symbol /DX. I have drawn a line along the base, where you can see the dollar is firming up near 77.80. On the left side along this line I have drawn a circle where you can see a gap. I have another circle drawn towards the right along this support line where the market slightly violated and into the gap but did not completely fill, with the gap fill near 77.30. So, the long length of line is important as support, and the gap that has not been filled underneath adds extra support.
The MACD had a bullish cross on August 7 in the daily timeframe, and since then has been flirting with the signal line. To gain strength the MACD needs to move above 0 (currently at -.21). There is a divergence on the RSI as well.
What the chart is telling me is that the US Dollar is near a turning point. When the MACD gets above 0 and the RSI above 50 (currently 42.03) the dollar should pop. When the dollar rises commodities will be repriced lower and tug the market lower. Even though the FED has printed massive amounts of money and the US dollar still wants to rise fuels suspicions that deflation is alive.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Is more money flowing into or out of the market? If this is a healthy market, you would think money would be flowing into it faster than it is flowing out. Lets look at the Chaikins Money Flow. This is an indicator that combines price and volume. It tends to show supply/demand. So if price is advancing, but Chaikins Money Flow is declining, it means that some stocks are under distribution rather than accumulation. In everyday lingo that means the big traders are selling into the advancing market. Lets look at the SPX chart for the past year in the daily timeframe.
View attachment 6778
The Chaikins Moeny Flow (CMF) is at the bottom. You can see how money flowed into the market, since the March lows, then started to leak out, then rush in during the July short squeeze, and now is leaving at a fantastic rate. Looks like the market is falling off a mountian! Also note the negative divergences on the MACD and the RSI.
Lets look at more proof that money is flowing out, at the Wall St. Journal Market Data Center. For Friday September 4,2009 here is a summary of moeny leaving the market in millions. Note that SPX lost 1.28% last week, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.72%
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3023
So, my conclusion is that some traders have decided to pull back or exit the market. Further, it seems price will have a hard time advancing, for very long.
Uptrend
Well-known member
A little fun for today! I still think this song is awesome, even though it came out some time ago. A song for all ages.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=astISOttCQ0
Uptrend
Well-known member
Regarding the US Dollar and post #965; the gap shown in the chart has now been filled and the dollar has regained the support line.
The market has popped, but the advance potential looks in to be in doubt. The candlestick patterns so far show a lack of buying pressure. Holding my short positions for now.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend,
I sincerely appreciate all the input you've given us from day one and throughout. You and Birch (and many others) have been a huge source of highly valued information.
I've decied to stop posting my TSP stuff and at the beginning of next year will be a remote memory... like so many others before me.
At this point I believe the Player mode is the wrong strategy and if anyone still believes we are in a BEAR MARKET they should remain in safety. With only 1 move in and 1 move out a month - waiting for the huge correction that you, Corepuncher, 350z, and I have waited on for months and months will cause us to lose gains never again to be offered and miss out.
So I'm going in and staying in.
Best of Luck - and thanks for everything
Uptrend
Well-known member
Each person needs to seek their own way; given all the available information. The markets have been highly manipulated, in part by the plunge protection team, I assume. This has fooled technical analysis to a degree. Also, some of us (like me) were on a learning curve for bear markets. Investing is a risk. Hoping for a brighter tomorrow. Good luck Steady.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Hi Sauer228:
It was slow and tedious, but I backtested my trading system for the S fund tonight for the 2008 bear year. Remember when everyone was losing 20-40%, and those in the G fund with a 3% gain were very happy? Well, if you traded only the S fund, with buying and selling within the 2 IFT allowed per month, the system yielded +15.25% for 2008! In some months there were no moves. I amy real confident the trading system is over +50% this year, but need to run the actual tests - and that will be completed as soon as I get time to devote to the task.
A few trading system caveats:
1) You must move the the following trading day by the IFT deadline, when the trading system flashes the signal to buy or sell.
2) It works really well with the S fund and C fund. It works reasonably well with the I fund and F fund, but may need some tweeks. I am working on it and will have backtest results for those funds as well in the future.
Right now, my trading system signals have not changed: still a sell on S, C, I and a buy on F.
Here is an interesting bear report:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=ak.1o0dVxWHo
sdouglas3
Member
Sounds good. But you know what will happen. Even with two IFT's a month a lot of people will follow your signals on the same day. This will alert Barclays to complain again to the board. Thus, making another change to TSP IFT's. I hope not, but if Barclay's isn't making money then no one will. JMO
Steve
It would be Blackrock complaining, but they have more money and are better managed then BGI. I have my opinion why the FRTIB restricted our IFT's and it has to do with BGI and where their money was during that large "I" fund transfer.Last edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market is acting weird. Dictionary.com says "1. involving or suggesting the supernatural; unearthly or uncanny." That is about it. You have Goldman running around messing with the ES Futures to keep the market up, messing with the Euro/US Dollar pair, messing with the gold price and on and on. Of course Uncle SAM is behind it all. A book could be written called "Suspicions"
On this subject, here is an excellant read although it might give you a slight headache. You also might want to attend some anger management classes first. IMO a lot of it is probably true. Read the September 08 entry first to put context to todays commentary.
http://tradingwithtoastmaster.blogspot.com/
My trading system is not buying into this rally. No change. Today a hanging man candlestick appeared on the EFA for the I fund. This marks a potential reversal, but needs to be confirmed.
Lets see if the market can push above SPX 1041. This will be the next battlefield. If the market can decisively clear, then clear sailing, probably all the way to a litle over 1100. A minimum target would be 1060. If not, I predict we visit 869 within 4 weeks.
The F fund has been uptrending since August 11. Gov bond acutions have been strong for 2 year and 7 year. This tells me that there is a flight to safety with money exiting equities.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Birchtree:
This bull rally is pure bull, with 70% of the daily volume being fueled by computers trading with each other, rocking the market up and down to stop out longs and shorts. There is no real recovery value here as 16% of Americans sit around under and unemployed. This defies mornal methods of technical analysis, so you might as well take your library to the trash bin.
Then there is Goldman Sachs with thier high frequency trading (HFT) super computers spying on the market a nanoisecond ahead of everybody else and pushing the market to their advantage. How on earth do you think they made 100 million a day in the second quarter? They appear to be professional theives, as the Plunge Prtection Team laughs in the back room planning the next move. One PPT member is probably calling the Department of Labor, ordering them to fudge the numbers, while another group is brain-storming the next strategy to float the market. Oh I know one PPT member says: lets buy gold to spike the price, to scare traders into thinkomg inflation is occurring, so there will a be a rush to buy commodities, thus lifting the indices.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
As traders, isn't one of the our golden rules to not get emotional and let politics outweigh the charts? Price pays. And its paying big time to recognize the trend. I'm not a permabull, but come on, until that support line is broken you have to respect the trend.
Birchtree
Well-known member
"The charts of the S&P trend lines provide a good way for investors to align their portfolios with the overall market trends."
http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2009/0909.htmlSimilar threads
