Uptrend's Account Talk

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nnuut said:
Market's are dropping like a ROCK!! For us in the "G" this is GOOD. Now where is the turn around? :blink:
Click to expand...

Hi nnuut Here is my guess where we might turn, and put in a lower high, before going down some more. See SPX chart:

View attachment 6745

Look for the circle on the right side at 978. This is a neckline of a head and shoulders pattern in the hourly timeframe. The top of the left shoulder is in the 1012-1016 area, the head is at 1039, and now after a test of the neckline, we might build a right shoulder with a top(s) in the 1012-1016 area. After putting in this lower high the market would breakdown. The pattern measures: 1039-978=61 points and 978-61=917 as a target. The left shoulder is pretty good resistance, so the market should stall here. Notice the decreasing slope on the RSI. This tells us the market is weakening.

Lets see if the market can get to 978 in the next 1-2 trading days. The bounce would be so short from 978 to 1013 that I am not sure one could do an IFT'to play it very well. Depends when the low would come in the daily timeframe.

My system is on a sell for C, S and I, and a buy for F. This information will be in the signature block at the bottom of my posts. Happy trading.
 
Definately a possibility!!!! I will probably hold the "G" today and see what develops. Crude inventories could drive Gas/Oil down further today, the Market should follow? Could drop deeper after the right head forms so if it does form I will wait for conformation of a turnaround to the upside. There I go trying to call a bottom, not that easy to do. Thanks, Good chart!!:D
 
"Widening the S&P 500's view to 30 months paints an arguably more promising backdrop. Note that almost a year ago, the S&P staged a 10-day, 370-point plunge, spanning from 1,209 to 839."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-defensive-approach-to-a-seasonally-weak-month-2009-09-01

This is analysis on the SPX and the vacant zone that the author Mike Ashbaugh talks about. For the bulls there is little resistance in this zone. That is why some say the market could rally in a hurry to 1200. However, we can also fall back down toward the low 800's first due to less resistance in this area of the chart.

Possible SPX retracements I am looking at include, the H&S pattern on the chart if it develops would lead us to around 917. There is also a gap to be filled between 906-910, so perhaps these two line up for a target area. Then there is the 200 dma coming in at 948.
 
..Sell C S I, Buy F

Will continue to read your 'valuable input' but with 2 IFTs it appears both of us are more comfortable staying in G Fund.

I'm chilling and waiting for the 10 - 15% drop you'd mentioned earlier. :D:D
 
JTH The market could bounce near the previous 978 momentum low, and go up and put in a lower high around 1010-1013 as this area is now resistance and the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the entire bear market. That is why this level is so important as support or resistance, depending on which side the market sits.

Today could go to the 980 area but it appears to be undecided, so it could be a pause day, with a continuation day down tomorrow. Of course a chart formation is not confirmed until it plays out. It just a premise and sort of a guessing game, based on past similarities. It's like trying to paint a reflection you see in the water, when you are part-way finished the picture changes.
 
Nnuut: Yes this is a bear flag. We want to see increased volume before the breakout to the downside, which will be the height of the pole. The market is consolidating while the traders are trying to decide their positions.
 
The SPX market may be in a temporary reversal to the upside finding support near a 990 pivot. I still think we will go and test 980, but it appears the market might bounce first. SPX is trying to breakout of a downward sloping price channel 30 minutes after market opening today, but appears weak so far. Sentiment went bearish too fast the last few days with a OEX put/call above 1.51 which I think may be causing the reversal early. So, there is a 50/50 chance we bounce up to somewhere between 1010-1018. This may play out today and/or tomorrow. I am expecting a gap down next week.

My system continues to have C, S, I on a sell (to G) and F on a buy. There is a little weakness in F today and perhaps tomorrow, which may allow an entry point. My system changed to buy on F in mid-August. I am not following for F right now, but will get on the system, as soon as this SPX backtest for a lower high maxes out around 1012 or a little higher. I should have bought F back in August, but was saving the IFT. It is hard to weigh the advantage of using an IFT for F vs waiting for C, S, I.

Happy Trading
 
Uptrend said:
My trading system signals have no change today. See signature block. Have a good weekend!
Click to expand...

Thanks Uptrend, I always enjoy your insightful post. I'm curious what time frame is your system based on?

Thanks... Jason
 
JTH: Because of the one day delay getting into and out of TSP, I have designed the trading system in the daily timeframe. I realize that there may be a little gain not realized or loss at the in and out points due to the day delay that we have no control over. However, the system has shown very good results, when backtested, despite this slight problem.
 
Another possibility that I see on the SPX chart is a bearish rising wedge. The bottom uses the trendline coming up from the March lows. The top follows the highs since June. So what could happen is that the market reverses back down to around 970-973. Today the 1013 resistance point is holding so far, that I have talked about in previous posts. Currently the trendline following the lows comes in at 967, but is rising. If the market sells off, and then bounces off of this lower trendline it might advance to the upper portion of the bearish rising wedge. The SPX level will be a little over 1060 by the time the advance gets there, as this upper trendline is also rising. So, I have not ruled out a little pop to frustrate the bears. If this happens, it will trigger my system buy signal.
 
The market is sitting on a major pivot point and has to decide. Let me show you on the SPX monthly chart.

View attachment 6774

Look at the circled crossover. Guess what. If you draw a horizontal line it comes in right at 1016, where the market stalled on Friday! This is a master level, as they say! BTW, those downward sloping lines point to the 890 and 630 levels. Remember, the longer the line the more importance the line has in terms of support or resistance. Pivots are also very important.

Since the volume was very light on Friday, the market tended to float up. Also the declining dollar helped. I expect the market to flounder on next Tuesday, and then decide a direction by Wednesday when normal volume comes in again.
 
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