Uptrend's Account Talk

[sdouglas3]

sdouglas3
The theory goes that Goldman Sachs is acting as proxy for the governments plunge protection team (PPT), which operates somewhere on the GS premises and that they try and hold the market up and stabilize with various buy and sell orders and manipulations of the indices.

Most agree however, that the market is just too big for one firm to push it around. It's pretty hard to fight Goliath. Here is some background on the conspiracy theory:

http://www.pluggedinfinance.com/2009/07/is-plunge-protection-team-manipulating.html

Thanks to Uptrend and Fedgolfer for your responses

Steve

 

[Uptrend]

Fedgolfer:
For the market to go up today the SPX 1071 level must be taken out. We have a lower low and a lower high from yesterday, and are now waiting for a new lower low to confirm the downtrend. Otherwise, if 1071 is exceeded then the downtrend is not confirmed, and more upside may result. The market is being sneaky.

 

[mdszj]

sdouglas3
The theory goes that Goldman Sachs is acting as proxy for the governments plunge protection team (PPT), which operates somewhere on the GS premises and that they try and hold the market up and stabilize with various buy and sell orders and manipulations of the indices.

Most agree however, that the market is just too big for one firm to push it around. It's pretty hard to fight Goliath. Here is some background on the conspiracy theory:

http://www.pluggedinfinance.com/2009/07/is-plunge-protection-team-manipulating.html

Maybe GS recently hired the gubmint as an 8A sub-contractor!! I bet they didnt even 3-bid!!

 

[Bullitt]

I think yesterday marked a ST bottom for the dollar which will bring on the next correction. Only question is, will it be another 5-7% correction or something more, perhaps 10-12%?

 

[WorkFE]

Agree Bullitt and C & S might be the play for next week as I think the dollar will be on the rebound soon.

 

[airlift]

Hello Uptrend,

From a technical viewpoint does the SPX have good support at the 1028 area? The reason I ask is because I am still fully invested and I am weighing whether or not to exit after this run. With only 2 IFTs per month, I am thinking that perhaps I can withstand a relatively small correction Thank you.

 

[mdszj]

this site has S/R levels for most major indices, gold, USD, etc

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2684038&cmd=show[s129091841]&disp=P

 

[Uptrend]

Airlift:
SPX 1028 area has strong support that was a previous momentum high. Further, the 20 sma is now coming in around 1033.

Using elliot wave theory, if you look at wave 2 of the building 1 2 3 4 5 EW structure, you see that it was 1039 - 992 = 47 long, and the recent 1075 high (wave 3) - 47 = 1028. If the principle of similarity plays out, that 1028 would be the target. Because current wave 3 is now longer that wave 1, waves 1 and 5 should be about equal. If the market retraces immediately as a diagonal triangle (as I am thinking) to 1028, it would rebound to 1088 to end the 5th wave. Alternatively, the market could continue higher to the 1090 area first to end wave 3, and then fall to the 1040 area. Either way the market is taking a little fall soon enough. A larger fall does not appear to be in the cards at this time.

We will find out whether the market zigs or zags soon enough.

 

[airlift]

Airlift:
SPX 1028 area has strong support that was a previous momentum high. Further, the 20 sma is now coming in around 1033.

Using elliot wave theory, if you look at wave 2 of the building 1 2 3 4 5 EW structure, you see that it was 1039 - 992 = 47 long, and the recent 1075 high (wave 3) - 47 = 1028. If the principle of similarity plays out, that 1028 would be the target. Because current wave 3 is now longer that wave 1, waves 1 and 5 should be about equal. If the market retraces immediately as a diagonal triangle (as I am thinking) to 1028, it would rebound to 1088 to end the 5th wave. Alternatively, the market could continue higher to the 1090 area first to end wave 3, and then fall to the 1040 area. Either way the market is taking a little fall soon enough. A larger fall does not appear to be in the cards at this time.

We will find out whether the market zigs or zags soon enough.

Thank you Uptrend.

 

[Uptrend]

There is fear returning to the market. The VIX is up over 1.25 this AM, at 25.23. The important 24 level has been cleared for now, but probably will be backtested again.

 

[Uptrend]

On the E-mini S&P 500 futures /ES, the market bounced off the 50 ema from below, so is acting as resistance. The 50 ema is an important support/resistance line. To confirm this, notice that the SPX market has been flat for the last half hour in stall mode. More downside appears to be coming today, or at least a lid to the upside for now.

 

[nasa1974]

On the E-mini S&P 500 futures /ES, the market bounced off the 50 ema from below, so is acting as resistance. The 50 ema is an important support/resistance line. To confirm this, notice that the SPX market has been flat for the last half hour in stall mode. More downside appears to be coming today, or at least a lid to the upside for now.

If the 50 ema doesn't hold we stand to lose at least half of the gains made this month. Still not a bad spot but it could lead to a panic sell off over the next couple of days. Lets hope not.

 

[Steadygain]

Either way the market is taking a little fall soon enough. A larger fall does not appear to be in the cards at this time.

We will find out whether the market zigs or zags soon enough.

That's why I favor your System First - because it's based on Trends and not the day to day crap that 'all of us' get wrapped up in.

But then again it's posts like this (and from the others who share these kind of posts) I most appreciate - because they deal with what is happening at the 'moment' in comparison with the overall climate.

Thanks again UT !!

 

[Uptrend]

Nasa1974:
I was looking at the /ES Futures on the SPX. The market is already below the 50 ema on SPX market coming in at 1065 and now above it on the futures, coming in at 1059, so it appears that we might backtest the SPX market 50 ema today at 1065. I use the futures, not really as futures, because it is not fortune telling, but rather IMO a combination of advanced chart reading and indices relationships, and flat out guessing by some folks.

The market will not take off again until 1065 is cleared.

 

[Uptrend]

Note the narrow width candlesticks on the chart for the two circled areas. These candles also have upper and lower whiskers. I am showing the S&P 500 emini /ES futures here, but the SPX market chart is similar. The last few days is showing a doji, spinning top, spinning top and perhaps a gravestone doji today (still under construction). This pattern means that the range is narrowing between buyers and sellars, and that there is uncertianity about further buying. When you see a string of these candles you can be pretty sure the market will soon reverse, as we saw in August.

View attachment 6825

 

[Steadygain]

Well I'm going to have to take that as more of a 'Hard Sell'

So will reduce High Risk (currently 16%) by another 50 %


WOULD NOT LET ME GO ANYWHERE BUT FULLY G FUND - SO WENT 100% G FUND @ COB

 

[Uptrend]

Steadygain:
This may not affect the F fund. There has been no sell signal, even during the little fall during late August/Sept. In fact during 8/28, 8/31 and 9/1 (the last reversal) the F fund gained from 13.12 to 13.17.

 

[Steadygain]

Steadygain:
This may not affect the F fund. There has been no sell signal, even during the little fall during August.

Wow thanks man - I'll cancel the SOB

I thought when you had a 'Soft Sell' - it went from BUY C,S,I,F to HOLD G,F

Maybe I'm watching too close - but I'm really trying to let your System do the work and pretty much ignore everything else.

 

[Steadygain]

My system has posted a sell today for C, S, I (for IFT to safe harbor of G or F fund tomorrow). This is a soft sell at this point but should confirm into a hard sell tomorrow or Thursday.

Hey Baskin Robbins (said in frustration and confussion)

wanting to use sweet names and not offensive ones.

When your System posted a 'SELL' for C,S,I -only because it was 'Soft' did I take a sizeable portion to F Fund.

Steadygain:
This may not affect the F fund. There has been no sell signal, even during the little fall during late August/Sept. In fact during 8/28, 8/31 and 9/1 (the last reversal) the F fund gained from 13.12 to 13.17.

Oh - nevermind - now I see what you're saying....

gosh darn .... sometimes I can be so stupid - you're talking about the F Fund.

Got it - thanks man - so that means the best I can do is move 16% to G Fund - so I might move just a little or simply keep it where it is.

Thanks for listening !! and have a great day !

 

[Birchtree]

If you call the current preice pattern undeniable and relentless, then we are defining the term of a centerpoint of a third wave. If the NYSE breadth MCSUM dioes move above the highs of earlier this month then that would IMHO be a confirmation of a center point third wave that could do this strength.