Uptrend's Account Talk

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Funny thing: I can't do a <1% IFT today because my percentages are exactly 90C 10S. Basically no change since my IFT two days ago (Tuesday).
 
sdouglas3 said:
Is it to risky to think about entering this market for the next push up? Money managers are fixing to come back from vacations and will need to buy. I think there wil be a sell off. But, I think the push up will be first. JMO of course.

Steve
Click to expand...

I posted the above before I read your comment. I went long with a little today as well. Lets see how it works out. I will make a move to G if it starts the wrong way.

Steve
 
Went back to G; a wasted trade (for me). Yesterday's daily print of the candlestick on spx concerned me. It could be interpreted as a hammer or a hanging man, which looks like a hemmer buts forms at the top of an uptrend. Put that candle with 3 indecision doji's candlesticks for the previous 3 trading sessions and you have a market at a crossroad. A lot of times you get a thrust up, pause, and another thrust up. Who knows? I don't know and am not taking the risk. I am watching the market today, but have taken few day trade positions. It needs to show us a direction.
 
Well folks: Quite a day. Do you know someone that can never make up their mind, and is wishy washy? Doesn't that drive you crazy? Well, that is what the market has been doing to us for the last week. See spx chart:

View attachment 6726
The market was going sideways (see circled area) with candlestick doji's, dragon fly doji on Tuesday, in context a hanging man on Thursday and a doji today. Does this look like a healthy market to you? For a reversal to start, the market must close below yesterdays hanging man at 1016. (That is where I have drawn the yellow line). Notice the market broke the wedge last Friday. The top line of the wedge should be redrawn to come in just over 1000 and the lower line at 985. These are last chance stops before a big drop.

There is a chance this is a pause in a continuation pattern, and Monday the market will shoot up. However, the top whiskers of the candles show that selling or distribution has been taking place. Lets look at a similar indecision week back in June and see what happened. See chart:
View attachment 6727

We see 9 trading days of basic indecision ending with a hanging man. Note the next trading session closed below the lower whisker. This started the June reversal by the way. Could the same thing be repeating now?
 
Uptrend said:
Went back to G; a wasted trade (for me).
Click to expand...


I'm weaning myself off - and at this point only look at your stuff because we started on the MB at the same time and I've always appreciated your 'Player Skills'

For ME - it was not a 'wasted trade' at all. We only have 2 a month and it was a worthwhile effort.

Moving back to G was a huge PLUS from my perspective and I sincerely hope both of us find it wonderful next week.

Take care man and thanks for the input
 
Markets this morning are not in a downtrend and are not in an uptrend. Just sideways trading. On SPX in the hourly timeframe, the market made a double bottom with last Thursday's momentum low, and so far appears to be holding. No big moves yet.

The US dollar appears to be ready to break out of a downtrending channel since last February. It was above the breakout line this AM, but has fallen back below (using UUP as a surrogate to track). It's close. When the breakout happens, commodities will move down while the US dollar moves up. This will chill the market.

VIX made a jump to 27 today. Needs to be above 28.2 for a breakout. Falling a little now, but should put in a higher low.

I am neither long or short the market today; just watching. The market is rangebound. A break below the SPX 1013 area and I will short. A move above 1041 and I will go long. Traders are playing a little game with our patience.

Possible market movers this week. Unemployment coming in at or over 10%? FDIC broke? Big bank failure, or lots of little ones - 81 and climbing this year alone. China falling? Other surprise news? BTW, I think it is entirely possible that the market could fall 10% in 1-2 days. Why did Obama go off vacation to name Bernanke as repeat Fed chairman a week or so ago? Why so nervous? What do they know?

SPX important levels to watch:
>1041 bulls in charge with more upside to as high as 1121
<1013 bears trying to take control
<985 bears in control
<869 bears crashing market down to 700 or below
 
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Uptrend, your posts are one of the first ones I look for when I come to the board. I really appreciate the straightforward way you express your analysis
 
These are very kind comments on my analysis details. It's great to have friends on the MB, and a personal thanks.

I am going to take some of my emotions out of trading, and introduce a new trading system I plan to follow.

But first, confessions of a sometime ago newbie. When I started exploring the technical aspects of markets in 2006, I did not have the faintest idea of how to trade. I did not know a MACD from a candlestick. Being a physical scientist, it was all wildly wonderful and a great challenge to try and figure out what was going on. In Oct of 2007, I started posting on the MB when I thought I had figured out how the markets worked in general. Boy was I schooled when the next Goldman Sachs trading program hit, or end of month market manipulation by portfolio managers, or sentiment swings, and on and on. And then the bear market hit. It was all quite humbling, but drove me to read, and really learn technical analysis.

As it turns out, I had been looking at too many trees and missed the forest. There are statistical trading tools that are known in the market. By putting together only two market indicators, a reliable trading system has emerged. I am excited!! I have back tested with these indicators with amazing results in the daily timeframe, which is perfect for TSP trading. I will show some of these results in future posts. Let's just say it would have caught most of the 50% gain in the past five months.

I know you have lots of questions. Here is some info:

Does this system work in a bear and bull market, you ask? Absolutely!

How will this system work with only 2 IFT's a month. Most months have only one or two transfers, but ocassionally one could get trapped with 3 required, but that is less likely. Some months have no transfers.

Will this system yield negative returns on some days, while in buy mode. Yes. this is the trade-off for working in the daily timeframe, with few transfers in and out.

Will you share the technical indicators and how you are arranging them? No. This is because it a long time to learn with a certian amount of ingenuity.

Will you tell us when you plan on making transfers? Yes! This is where we together can fight back against the forces of the market in our own small way.

What is the system doing now? Friday, August 28, the system has flipped to a sell.


I know, I am a ways down the tracker, but that is because I let my emotions get involved, being scared of the bear. However, my reputation is on the line. Just watch the system for the next six months, and then you decide.
 
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The market is putting on the brakes in the SPX 1025-1027 gap. There is good resistance at 1029. This is the lower high we are looking for, and we should go down from this point. Expect to challenge 1013 today.

I am on the sidelines for TSP, as my system shows a sell for C, S, and I and a buy for F. (See post #935). Due to less gain potential in F, I am saving my 2 September IFT's for a better opportunity, if it should arise.

Sitting on my hands.
 
Uptrend said:
The market is putting on the brakes in the SPX 1025-1027 gap. There is good resistance at 1029. This is the lower high we are looking for, and we should go down from this point. Expect to challenge 1013 today.

I am on the sidelines for TSP, as my system shows a sell for C, S, and I and a buy for F. (See post #935). Due to less gain potential in F, I am saving my 2 September IFT's for a better opportunity, if it should arise.

Sitting on my hands.
Click to expand...

Uptrend, I and a lot of other people on this board appreciate your comments on the market and your thoughts. :)

What is your new system and how can we get some info on it?

Thanks,

Steve
 
Uptrend said:
These are very kind comments on my analysis details. It's great to have friends on the MB, and a personal thanks.

I am going to take some of my emotions out of trading, and introduce a new trading system I plan to follow.

But first, confessions of a sometime ago newbie. When I started exploring the technical aspects of markets in 2006, I did not have the faintest idea of how to trade. I did not know a MACD from a candlestick. Being a physical scientist, it was all wildly wonderful and a great challenge to try and figure out what was going on. In Oct of 2007, I started posting on the MB when I thought I had figured out how the markets worked in general. Boy was I schooled when the next Goldman Sachs trading program hit, or end of month market manipulation by portfolio managers, or sentiment swings, and on and on. And then the bear market hit. It was all quite humbling, but drove me to read, and really learn technical analysis.

As it turns out, I had been looking at too many trees and missed the forest. There are statistical trading tools that are known in the market. By putting together only two market indicators, a reliable trading system has emerged. I am excited!! I have back tested with these indicators with amazing results in the daily timeframe, which is perfect for TSP trading. I will show some of these results in future posts. Let's just say it would have caught most of the 50% gain in the past five months.

I know you have lots of questions. Here is some info:

Does this system work in a bear and bull market, you ask? Absolutely!

How will this system work with only 2 IFT's a month. Most months have only one or two transfers, but ocassionally one could get trapped with 3 required, but that is less likely. Some months have no transfers.

Will this system yield negative returns on some days, while in buy mode. Yes. this is the trade-off for working in the daily timeframe, with few transfers in and out.

Will you share the technical indicators and how you are arranging them? No. This is because it a long time to learn with a certian amount of ingenuity.

Will you tell us when you plan on making transfers? Yes! This is where we together can fight back against the forces of the market in our own small way.

What is the system doing now? Friday, August 28, the system has flipped to a sell.


I know, I am a ways down the tracker, but that is because I let my emotions get involved, being scared of the bear. However, my reputation is on the line. Just watch the system for the next six months, and then you decide.
Click to expand...
Sounds GOOD Uptrend, maybe you can get me off of the stinkin' bottom? Will be watchin' and listening, I always check your posts and respect your opinion. :cool:
 
Yeah nnuut. I am going to a statistical system to get my feelings out of trading. For me, this is where mistakes are made. Perhaps we can rise together.
 
Uptrend said:
Yeah nnuut. I am going to a statistical system to get my feelings out of trading. For me, this is where mistakes are made. Perhaps we can rise together.
Click to expand...

Praise God my brother and friend !!

This is probably the smartest thing you've ever said. I'm with you all the way !!
 
Market's are dropping like a ROCK!! For us in the "G" this is GOOD. Now where is the turn around? The remainder of this week may be down farther, timing is everything. I think I'll sit on it until there is confirmation? :blink:
 
Uptrend said:
I am on the sidelines for TSP, as my system shows a sell for C, S, and I and a buy for F. (See post #935). Due to less gain potential in F, I am saving my 2 September IFT's for a better opportunity, if it should arise.

Sitting on my hands.
Click to expand...

Heck it's even an ugly day with the Gap down on AGG. This is a great day to be sitting it out...

View attachment 6743
 
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