Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Thanks airlift. I am not taking any chances, and will be on travel the next few days, so decided to sell the rally. A 1 day scoop!

 

[Steadygain]

I am not taking any chances, and will be on travel the next few days, so decided to sell the rally. A 1 day scoop!

You made a GREAT move !!

Somehow we seem to trade places here and there - and now once again we did a reversal.

Oh well - will plan my next more carefully.

GL - and may we both 'be winners'

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Steady. The market seems to be making a right shoulder of a H & S pattern, and I knew that the market could rise before stalling out to between SPX 923 -930 where there is much resistance. But it could also retest the 880-890 area as well. It appears the market will bounce up and down while completing the right shoulder. However, at some point the neckline will break down. If you consider the neckline to be slightly sloping up, the last low came in at SPX 888, and SPX 880 on the left shoulder. So the possible breakdown would be 956 -888 = 68 points and 888-68 = 820 for an initial downside target. I believe the market will go back and test the neckline, and possibly bounce back up, 1-2 more times. Watch this area (880 -890) for a possible short-term play. The neckline has not received enough hits yet to breakdown IMO.

 

[Uptrend]

Recently the spx topped at 956 and retraced to 889. Yesterday's peak at 921 was almost exactly a 50% retracement based on the difference. So an alternate Elliot Wave count for a 5 ziagzag down to make up declining wave A of a retracement ABC from the spx 956 high, could have wave 1 from 956 -889, wave 2 from 889 -821, and wave 3 down would now be underway. If alternatively 61.2 Fib is considered, then the market will bounce around today and into next week, and go up and top at 930, which tracks with the larger downtrend line.

 

[DCguy]

look at the Tbond yields dropping like a rock currently and spx is only down 0.3%. It seems at this time spx will head north following the bond yields drop

 

[Uptrend]

Tomorrow, July 2, is shaping up to be a light volume, but down day (futures so far). This is odd compared to a bull market. Light volume days usually rise, and usually rise near holidays. US dollar is looking like it will get a bid, and that will help take the markets lower. If spx 913 breaks, the next low is spx 894 vicinity. Expect that level soon, on way to 775 area.

The market might rally one more time from the mid 890 area to 930 area, before a breakdown starts. If the H&S pattern is playing out (and it looks promising so far), the spx left shoulder was complex with several highs and lows, so I would expect the same to occur on the right shoulder.

 

[Uptrend]

Looking for one more shoulder to complete on the spx H & S top. There are two on the left side. Today we are bouncing off the 200 sma. This has to hold, (in order to complete the 2nd right shoulder) with about a 888 reading. We might have a little breach and fake-out of this level to the downside during the trading session. Looks to be the TSP entry point for a short high risk trade. Range would be from spx 888-935 to build another high. Watching carefully.

 

[Uptrend]

Made a IFT transfer 70% S 30% C Market has held at the important spx 888 level and is reversing to the upside. ISM report looks favorable. Expect to hold for 2-3 trading days.

 

[coolhand]

Made a IFT transfer 70% S 30% C Market has held at the important spx 888 level and is reversing to the upside. ISM report looks favorable. Expect to hold for 2-3 trading days.

I think it's a good trade. I'd make one too, except it's too early in the month and lower prices are probably coming. I have to give the nod to my IT signal right now and let this opportunity go. Good luck!

 

[Uptrend]

I plan on exiting my current TSP swing trade at the spx 20 sma coming in at 919. This will put in a lower high on the spx multiple right shoulder pattern setting up. But first resistance at spx 913 must be overcome. I am thinking a gap up on Tuesday. What the spark will be - I have no clue. Gap theory is based on the momentum of the reversal late Monday. Also much positive after hours trading. Not sure if short covering was involved, but appears suspicious.

 

[Guest2]

I'm riding your coat-tails my friend. Good Luck and may we see a 3% swing.

 

[Frixxxx]

I'm riding your coat-tails my friend. Good Luck and may we see a 3% swing.

I HOPE!!!!!

 

[Diesel]

Good luck fellas. Still enjoy reading your comments when I have the time. Damn work and life getting in the way. Keep the intel coming and here to a 4% swing

 

[Uptrend]

Well Dang! Trade going south? Well - I still believe in chart symmetry, as charts have order and are fairly powerfull. Still looking for a second right shoulder to develop. Our spx low today was 879.93 which matches the low made in May of 879.61. So instead of a neckline slightly sloping upward, we have a horizontal level which should define the neckline of the H&S pattern. This level needs to hold for a few trading sessions! There is a divergence on the RSI and the histograms on the MACD, so the market probably should rally back up to the 20 sma, dropping and currently at about 917. This trade is scaring me, but also what I am thinking is that with options X next week, and there are way too many puts. so a last little flush of the bears to put in a lower high, and then crash down to the neckline and through it? Necklines usually don't slice like butter as it takes about 3-4 hits. The market has 2 touches on the 880 level already. So, I was tempted to bail and take the loss today (Tuesday), but after tech review - have decided to hang on. Looking for a little 30 point rally. What would cause it? Perhaps oil stops the freefall and bounces, the US dollar declines for a few days, AA earnings better than expected etc.

 

[Corepuncher]

Remember the old bollinger band method I was posting months ago? It has worked every time since 2007. The first time the S&P hits the lower BBand, sell. Or, wait until a bounce back to the 20 sma before it tanks. This move so far has been textbook....we touched the bband, bounced to 20, failed, and now back to the bband....where we should break. All it will take is some bad earnings to push us over the edge. AND/OR...another double digit decrease (in billions) of consumer credit.

Also, a nice place for a bottom would be with +/- 3 days of OPEX...July 17th. In June, the bottom was the following Monday. So that would be July 20th. "Everyone" seems to be talking about late july/early august too. I also like how the MACD finally went below ZERO on the SPX, something it has not been since the big dip. Won't take much to tip it over, IMO. First target 840-850...then all in at 800-810 for a ride back up to at least 900 after earnings are over.

 

[alevin]

July 17- 20th. "Everyone" seems to be talking about late july/early august too. I also like how the MACD finally went below ZERO on the SPX, something it has not been since the big dip.
all in at 800-810 for a ride back up to at least 900 after earnings are over.

CP, weekly Ichimoku charts agree with those numbers, it's just the timeframe(s) is(are) a little more uncertain for me.

 

[airlift]

Well Dang! Trade going south? Well - I still believe in chart symmetry, as charts have order and are fairly powerfull. Still looking for a second right shoulder to develop. Our spx low today was 879.93 which matches the low made in May of 879.61. So instead of a neckline slightly sloping upward, we have a horizontal level which should define the neckline of the H&S pattern. This level needs to hold for a few trading sessions! There is a divergence on the RSI and the histograms on the MACD, so the market probably should rally back up to the 20 sma, dropping and currently at about 917. This trade is scaring me, but also what I am thinking is that with options X next week, and there are way too many puts. so a last little flush of the bears to put in a lower high, and then crash down to the neckline and through it? Necklines usually don't slice like butter as it takes about 3-4 hits. The market has 2 touches on the 880 level already. So, I was tempted to bail and take the loss today (Tuesday), but after tech review - have decided to hang on. Looking for a little 30 point rally. What would cause it? Perhaps oil stops the freefall and bounces, the US dollar declines for a few days, AA earnings better than expected etc.

I noted yesterday that someone kindly posted Art Cashin's opinion that the SPX neckline is at 877. Yesterdays low was 879.93. Alcoa seems to have come through, futures are positive
and I liked that -how

 

[airlift]

Well Dang! Trade going south? Well - I still believe in chart symmetry, as charts have order and are fairly powerfull. Still looking for a second right shoulder to develop. Our spx low today was 879.93 which matches the low made in May of 879.61. So instead of a neckline slightly sloping upward, we have a horizontal level which should define the neckline of the H&S pattern. This level needs to hold for a few trading sessions! There is a divergence on the RSI and the histograms on the MACD, so the market probably should rally back up to the 20 sma, dropping and currently at about 917. This trade is scaring me, but also what I am thinking is that with options X next week, and there are way too many puts. so a last little flush of the bears to put in a lower high, and then crash down to the neckline and through it? Necklines usually don't slice like butter as it takes about 3-4 hits. The market has 2 touches on the 880 level already. So, I was tempted to bail and take the loss today (Tuesday), but after tech review - have decided to hang on. Looking for a little 30 point rally. What would cause it? Perhaps oil stops the freefall and bounces, the US dollar declines for a few days, AA earnings better than expected etc.

I noted yesterday that someone kindly posted Art Cashin's opinion that the SPX neckline is at 877. Yesterdays low was 879.93. Alcoa seems to have come through, futures are positive
and I liked that Show me increased his positions. Good signs.

 

[Steadygain]

Well Dang! Trade going south?

You're a PRO man - and that's all that really matters.

1 day or 2 is insignificant in the sceme of things; the main thing is getting a sense of when to go in and when to go out.

History shows you've planned it out well.

Expect a decent POP :toung:

 

[Guest2]

I noted yesterday that someone kindly posted Art Cashin's opinion that the SPX neckline is at 877.

Thanks you for the honorable mention, the full article can be seen on my thread.
Got my fingers crossed that 877 holds and we see some BULL for awhile.