Uptrend's Account Talk

[Lobo]

I am thinking to exit the market on Thursday, because Google reports after the bell and it is supposed to beat estimates. Also, I believe BAC reports on Friday, and is supposed to be beat estimates.

Meaning you will be IN on Thurdsay and OUT on Friday.....or OUT Wednesday night??

I appreciate your input greatly!

Lobo

 

[Uptrend]

Lobo:
I made a decision about 1/2 hour before the IFT deadline today and traded back to G. (I am sorry, my employer won't allow me to post at work). The rally was stalling today at the 20 sma in the daily timeframe. Tonight I see negative divergences (prices rising while technical indicators falling) on the 15 minute and daily timeframes in the relative strength index (RSI). Basically this tells me that the rally is losing steam. I am thinking we top out near spx 912-913 and that could occur tomorrow or Thursday. I think when the reverse comes, it will be hard and fast. Taking money off the table tomorrow and Thursday would be prudent IMO, unless you like high stakes gambling.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is a 60 minute chart of todays price action You can see the market broke out of a bullish falling wedge on the start of last Thursday, wnet through a triangle, and now is climbing a bearish rising wedge since Monday. As the wedge starts to squeeze, it should breakdown. Bearish in the near term.

View attachment 6569

 

[Lobo]

Well, I "missed" getting out. Whew! Sure glad I did!! But, whether it's a good play or not, I'm out for tomorrow....went 75G & 25F, thinking things will turn around soon and get a tiny return on the F....maybe? I have gotten "greedy" in the past, and it has cost me big time!

Lobo

 

[Uptrend]

This has been a quite a short covering rally to build the right shoulder. Well, I muffed this trade on both ends, but congradulations to those that rode it up 7%. Timing is everything; as I bought early and sold early. However, IMO it is time to bail and not be a pig, as the house of cards should soon come tumbling down. Volume is just not there. Major resistance above with little to drive it up there. OEX post week usually goes the other direction. We could see a slow roll-over for the next week of so.

Good time to take a short position for individual trades. Could also jump on when the market falls below 20 ema or below spx neckline coming in at 879, Bought TZA ETF today.

 

[Uptrend]

I did my analysis this weekend, and here is the long and short of it for the short term (nice financial pun huh?).

Downside
If spx minor low @928 is taken out the market goes to 910 and bounces off support. Could fail on subsequent bounces and then to spx 879. Resistance is @945. Outside of TSP, if you entered a short position Friday, then watch these levels, and be ready to bail, if the tide goes against you.

Upside
If the market can get above spx 945 and stay there for 3 sessions, and back test the then broken trendline the market rises. A 38.2% fib will be coming in at 1012. We must see increasing volume if this occurs.

IMO this is a good time to sit on the sidelines and watch the price action, as the market is showing us indecision. There is no clear trend yet. However, the recent head and shoulders pattern is not technically taken out despite what some are saying. The VIX (emotions meter) is not confirming the uptrend yet, and is bouncing along a lower 9 month longterm trendline. It could shoot to the moon at any time, with the market falling. Be careful.

 

[Bullitt]

The boys put a run on the option players this past week, that's for sure. This head fake to the upside will be just as disastrous for the 'bulls' as the head fake to the downside was for the 'bears' last week. Good advice. No reason to be doing any buying or selling here- Nothing has changed.

 

[Uptrend]

VIX is up 3.49% so far today, while the spx is up 0.41%. IMO this is a harbinger of a coming fall. Just thought the perma-bulls should have a little reality check.

 

[Uptrend]

Well, with the SPX 951 close today, the head and shoulders pattern is dead.

So considering direction for the SPX, here is what to consider: 1) a double top M, coming in at the previous intra-day high @956 and then a sharp reversal, or, 2) trading sideways, and then trading down past higher lows @935, 928 and stopping at gap resistance @910. At 910 the market should reverse and retry to take out the 956 high. This scenario puts in a higher low and could push the double top M pattern to around 1000-1020. This would still be a double top with the right side higher than the left.

So, if you are sitting on the sidelines with a trade in your pocket, I would try and time to be in the market at the SPX 910 gap resistance entry point. Watch SPX 928 -if it breaks the market should go to SPX 910 as this is strong support.

 

[Uptrend]

Hello traders:

Been on vacation for 2 weeks. Congradulations to those who have made $ in this insane market.

Now how high can the SPX go? Here is a view:

"Primary wave B completed Major wave A in June at SPX 956. The entire wave took the form of a zigzag: Intermediate wave A SPX 833, Intermediate B SPX 780 and an extended Intermediate C to SPX 956. The entire wave was 289 SPX points. Major wave B also took the form of a zigzag, but was a much shorter 87 SPX points or 30% retracement. Since Major wave A formed a zigzag, we are expecting the current Major wave C to also form a zigzag, to complete a double zigzag Primary wave B. Fibonacci analysis suggest two potential targets: at SPX 1014 C = 0.50A, or SPX 1047 C = 0.62A. These levels also align with two OEW pivots: SPX 1018 and SPX 1041. We also reviewed two of the three historical events that contained Primary B waves for time relationships. The first was the DOW 1929-1932 bear market. That Primary B wave between 1929-1930 took exactly five months and two trading days. The second was the NIK 1989-1992 bear market. That Primary B wave took exactly five months and eleven trading days. These two historical references suggest that Primary wave B should end between August 10th and August 21st. We now have some fibonacci price targets and historical time targets for the conclusion of Primary wave B."

How low can the SPX go?

"The next objective is to determine the actual end of Primary wave B. After Primary B concludes a larger downtrending Primary C will get underway, which will either retest the bear market lows, or go lower."

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

 

[JTH]

Doesn't look like I'll find a dip to buy into since we are already so close to 1015ish. It's a bummer, but at this point I'd hate to jump in and buy at the top.

Believe it or not, a few weeks ago, the folks at survival radio who run web robots across the web and " [FONT=&quot]Interpret[/FONT]" their data, claim August 22nd would be the start of the down-turn.

 

[WorkFE]

JTH,
That is around the time frame Oil will be hitting 80-85 a barrel. IMHO that could put a little damper on the party.

 

[nasa1974]

Doesn't look like I'll find a dip to buy into since we are already so close to 1015ish. It's a bummer, but at this point I'd hate to jump in and buy at the top.

Believe it or not, a few weeks ago, the folks at survival radio who run web robots across the web and " [FONT=&quot]Interpret[/FONT]" their data, claim August 22nd would be the start of the down-turn.

JTH,

If the market keeps rising like this I will be happy to ride the rally train until the 22nd. By then I may be back to my 2007 closing numbers.

 

[Uptrend]

The SEC has promised to ban flash trading today; the practice of using high speed computers to snoop a fraction of a second ahead on folks market orders and adjust theirs accordingly to seek a competitive advantage (Yes, this has been going on and it is not science fiction).

I'm sure Goldman Sachs was using this practice. This perhaps partly explains how they made a $100 million a day trading in the second quarter.

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/08/03/daily43.html

 

[mick504]

I've been in the G fund the last few months and missed out on some good increases; however I'm still going to wait as the market is moving too fast up....and we will I believe to have some dips just like before. Hang in there!

 

[Uptrend]

Mick504 I agree the market has made an "insane" move, and I'm not buying it. The turn date is approaching rapidly, and as soon as the earnings reports run out, so the market will run out of gas. As far as I can tell, this rise is a professional traders deception. I am watching the spx 910 gap window, and I am thinking we get down there within 2 weeks. There should be a playable bounce at that point. However, if the market gets a series of lower highs and lower lows, it will then be in a downtrend, and it will be like playing with fire.

The US dollar is up today, probably because the Bank of England announced that they will be pumping 84 billion into their economy.

If tomorrow's total unemployment numbers rise, the market should have a negative response.

 

[Uptrend]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-optimists-get-worried-about-rallys-steep-run-2009-08-07

 

[Uptrend]

This ain't no bull market folks. Take a look at the Nasdaq 100:

http://stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Uptrend]

Traders Talk "Hedgehawk" says the correction started this afternoon with the initial target @870 on the spx. He makes some good points with the lack of shipping, $USD possible rally and cracks in oil.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=109740

 

[airlift]

Traders Talk "Hedgehawk" says the correction started this afternoon with the initial target @870 on the spx. He makes some good points with the lack of shipping, $USD possible rally and cracks in oil.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=109740

Uptrend,

Thanks for posting. I don't know what QE means, so I quoted and the paragraph below. Please help me understand QE? Thanks.

"Entered short today via September SSO 32 puts at 2.25. My reasoning is that the FED givith and the FED taketh. The BDI index rolled over this week. The Chinese are done buying commodities at least thats what the BDI says. 2nd I believe this rally in the dollar is for real and will last more than 1 or 2 sessions. Crude Oil traded sideways all week and there are cracks in the limestone foundation. Last we get the FED this week and I think the dollar rallies as the US will be the first to exit QE as may be hinted at the FED mtg. I think the correction started this afternoon target 870."