Uptrend's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
The market never allows the mass majority of participants to succeed; so if only .3% of the money in TSP bought the C Fund on any given day in April, it's still doing better YTD than somebody parked in the G Fund.
 
The point is that most TSP participants are still in "loss shock" and are just not buying this rally.

BTW, the descending triangle is still in play as long as the spx market closes below 913 today. Descending triangles are bearish -the trigger point for the downside remains at 878. Expecting a break in the next few sessions, and then down to spx 850 area.
 
The top twelve indicators that the economy is bad--
12. CEO's are now playing miniature golf.
11. I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
10. I went to buy a toaster oven and they gave me a bank.
9. Hotwheels and Matchbox car companies are now trading higher than GM in
the stock market.
8. Obama met with small businesses - GE, Pfizer, Chrysler, Citigroup and
GM, to discuss the Stimulus Package.
7. McDonalds is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
6 People in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and are learning their
children's names.
5. The most highly-paid job is now jury duty.
4. People in Africa are donating money to Americans. Mothers in Ethiopia
are telling their kids, "finish your plate; do you know how many kids are
starving in America ?"
3. Motel Six won't leave the lights on.
2. The Mafia is laying off judges.

And my most favorite indicator of all.
1. If the bank returns your check marked as "insufficient funds," you have
to call them and ask if they meant you or them.
 
Friends on the MB:

Based on technicals that closed on Friday, I have reversed my thinking in the short-term because a buy is flashing. I know the fundamentals are lousy, but only price pays. Also, we must learn to trade what we see, not what we believe. That said, the market is ready to go to spx 1000-1100, most likely during the next 10 trading days.

1) The spx broke out of the descending triangle to the upside in the last hour on Friday. The XLF and $BKX also broke out. SPX 913 is now support. There is a cup and handle formed on the 15 min and hour charts that measures to at least spx 943. This is above the spx 200 sma, which is significant. BTW, the market went sideways for about a month as a tug or war and tested spx 878 several times while consolidating.

2) There is way to much money on the sidelines, as too many folks are expecting a fall. Also there are too many put options vs call options. These are contrarian indicators.

3) Elliot wave theroy continues to show more advance. Don't take my word for it - look at the links below.

I will either enter the market tomorrow, or wait for a backtest of spx 913 support, which might occur Tuesday. Happy Trading!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aS40-ftJBQ&feature=channel_page

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
 
The pres PPT (see birchtree) will make it happen, GM will file today, so down it will may get in after 1200 and tommarrow will see if the admin massage the markets?? You can allso you tube and find news storys about the Plunge Protection Team. I will be watching for the manpulation.
 
I've been drafting your exhaust system all weekend - but after today we part company. Catch me if you can while I ride the Ducati. Snort.
 
Birchtree: Your day will come, when the bears come out of the woods and nip your #@$.

I will wait until tomorrow for a better entry point for TSP.
 
10 yr T-bond's skyrocketing today. If this T-bond upward trend continues, the US will go bankrupt, following GM and $ will be worthless. I shouldn't study the numbers as this market continues to ignore all hard data, but I just cant ignore the data.
 
Uptrend, good call on the bullish bias, it's too bad the IFT limitations make capitalizing on this market difficult.
 
Your right DC guy. 10-year bond rates gapped up again today. This will kill the green shoots. Kind of like a dose of Roundup.

w
 
Today the market has cleared the major spx 943 downtrend hurdle. Now can it stay above is the question. Vix is declining so far and has slipped below 29 which is bullish. However the dollar is still sliding and I suspect it is keeping this rally going. So I can't decide to pull the trigger on TSP. I know we are at extended levels, but could also race higher. A picture may be emerging where the market trades between spx 800 -1000 all summer, pushed around by the dollar index, poor earnings, gov manipulation, Obama speak, PPT field day etc. I don't see it easier for the consumer. Umemployment really needs to come down, and that is not happening so far. The government does not know how to run a financial company (C), and now we are trusting them with a auto company (GM)? Who wold have thought possible a few years ago?

Anyhow, although the technicals support a entry into the market, I am still hesitant, and will wait for a better position. Need to see some down days to catch up with reality. Do your own DD and good luck!
 
This chart of UUP (tracks the US dollar) says it all:

View attachment 6391

On April 20 the small pennant broke out to the upside, and then the larger pennant broke down, and the US dollar has been sliding down a steep channel. As the US dollar falls, assets are repriced higher and the stock market rises. We can see a slight divergence on the MACD histogram bars, but no line cross and heading lower. The stochastics are very oversold (below 20) with a bearish cross. In mid-May the 50 day sma fell below the 200 day sma signaling a weak dollar.

When the US slide stops and reverses, the market will fall.
 
We will enjoy a weaker dollar to further encourage our export industries. However, again it's only temporary in the longer term.
 
Are we seeing the start of a sell-off? Are the pumpers and dumpers done? Are we staring over the edge of a cliff?

The red market today may be due to a weak jobs report, but the US dollar is rising -so that partly explains the negative action. S&P is currently valued at 15.5 times earnings. Has been 19 in good times and 4-7 after the end of bear markets. Seems high to me for this recession environment.

IMO when the rip comes, it will be big. Be prepared.
 
The US dollar (I use the UUP chart) was up today (Wednesday) so this contributed to the market decline. On the UUP chart I see a bullish kicking pattern, which is highly reliable, so I am thinking that tomorrow will be another market down day. The pundits on CNBC can say whatever they want, but the market is just asset adjusting. Commodities are overbought. We saw a retracement today to gap resistance at spx 923 and then a reverse upwards. There is still gap fill below at about spx 918 and then a backtest of the breakout point at spx 910.

I have been waiting to enter the market, but still cannot be convinced. I note that the VIX has increased today closing at 31.02 +4.66% The 29 area is the place to watch, if the VIX goes below, the market will rally big.
 
The US dollar chart (UUP) is around nuetral to slightly negative this AM. The market is also nuetral. There is a direct correlation: dollar down market up, dollar up market down.

Still a 50:50 chance the market goes to spx 910 before continuing upward, and a fair chance that it just might break spx 910 and then 890 and go down. Holding is risky at these extended levels. Most pro's are day trading or swing trading. Where the heck is our option to do that Thrift Board?
 
Good morning traders! IMO don't lose your head. This market is not acting rational. Getting a lot of rest in G. Yawn

So, the spx still has a gap at 918-923, and gaps will be filled. The market wanted to rally wtih the jobs report and spiked up, but the bouncing dollar pulled it down. Remember lately when the dollar is down the market is up and dollar up/market down. Various reads and technicals suggest that the USD may have a little uptrend for a few days. Bond yields are still moving up, which should kill ny recovery due to mortgage rate increases.

I am voting toppy and see an M pattern forming. Good luck.
 
Ouch, tha's going to put a hurtin on the I-Fund. The dollar stopped just short of a previous area of support. I'd like to see it get stopped right there and turn back around. I hope Monday gives us some incite as to the direction.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JTH
  • Article Article
S&P 500: Week-8
Replies
0
Views
144
JTH
JTH
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Huge midday reversal fails in final minutes
Replies
0
Views
199
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A positive reversal on Friday, but fund
Replies
0
Views
143
tsptalk
tsptalk
JTH
  • Article Article
Maximum Draw-Down
Replies
0
Views
147
JTH
JTH
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Late Friday rally hinting at reversal
Replies
0
Views
209
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top