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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
WIND_HUNTER
Member
In retrospect, the Bear loves company and will do all it can to keep the Bull thinking a "new Bull market" has arrived. Caution is still warranted.Last edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
Lets not forget last months misrey. Will return soon enough.
View attachment 6063
http://www.fedsmith.com/article/1892/
By the way does Ralph Smith really know anything? IMO he is all talk, and no direction, no conviction.
Not to mention being a shill for the FRTIB.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I believe the market is still in an uptrend, but will pause and trade sideways to down for the next few days. The market marched from spx 666 to 803, a 137 point advance. At a 38.2% Fib retracement target, we land at 751, and 734 for a 50% retracement, before the upward trend continues. Markets like to go down and kiss the 20 sma after a run to the upside, which is currently at about spx 739. So the Fib target between the too points is reasonable. I am not sure how many days that will take for this cooling off period, but am guessing 6-7, a more or less equal period to the upward explosion. For TSP, I sold at the end of the advance, so cannot buy in until April 1 to be effective April 2. By then I am guessing the market will have advanced for several days. I am thinking the market will still be below, my spx 794 exit point, so the sell was worth it. At least that was my thinking. Meanwhile a G position is much less risk.
What will lead the market higher? Oil, natural resource stocks, solar (as long as the dollar is falling),tech and second surge in financials, as well as too much negative sentiment. Target would be the 200 sma, currently about spx 990. I still believe the market has a good shot at it, before a big reversal.
I absolutely loved your analysis !
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thanks Uptrend !
Always look forward to your input
Uptrend
Well-known member
A real firecracker today for those in the market.
I sometimes have a tendency to exit trades early, but with the Bear around one must be careful. I still stick by my trading strategy, and exit when I see all kinds of technical resistance. I also exit when things are going good, as storm clouds form fast.
Perhaps when the bank plan is digested, there will be food poisoning? More disclosure will either bring confidence or disgust.
I really cant see why the market is rallying. All hype. Of course a dollar made on hype is as good as any other dollar. I see sideways trading in the picture, and a slip below 800 by mid-week. Will spx 789 hold is the question, as this is critical support.
Uptrend
Well-known member
My theory
The rally from March 10 has been strong and swift. I see the rise from spx 666 unfolding in three waves A, B and C. This is classic Elliot wave theory and is a positive move against a bearish downtrend. Wave A will probably end at the spx 825 gap (was there today) or the 838 resistance area. If so, this is a max of 172 point advance. Wave B will probably take longer to unfold than wave A and will retrace the explosive gain to somewhere in the range of spx 735-770 (a range of FIB of 38.2-61.8% of the total advance). Then an explosive third wave will develop and push the market higher until it touches the 200 sma, currently just a little below spx 1000. Then the market will reverse in a 1 2 3 4 5 wave downtrend.
Pattern, price and time. Pattern is ABC zigzag. Price is about 47% advance from low to touch the 200 day sma. Time is at least 45 trading days. From March 10 at the start of the rally + 45 trading days = May 13. We'll C. This coincides with the $VIX breakout of the forming wedge in about the same time period.
IFT strategy. No current IFT's, all spent. In April wait for the confirmation that the B zag in ABC has reversed (look for reverse off target levels mentioned) and then pile on long.
Don't worry about missing Monday's big gainer. The third wave should be big.
Handballer
Active member
Uptrend
Well-known member
Market is stalling at the spx 825 gap window, for the second day. Weakness in energy. Futures are currently spx 817. 2x tries to get above gap and fail means more sideways trade in the near term. Still expect a healthy pullback from the lows, which we have not seen yet. To sustain this rally we need a consolidation period.
Uptrend
Well-known member
It appears there is a pause coming in the market for the next few days. The technicals to support this position is given below. This should form the Elliot B wave of the ABC uptrend against the downtrend. The retracement could go anywhere from spx 770-735 before continuing the uptrend, the C wave. My preference is to play (be in the market) the first 80% of these waves (often hard to determine) and then sell (get out) and hold in cash (G fund). Why do I think a second wave is coming? Because the frst quarter earnings will start coming in the second week of April and be negative to nuetral to slightly positive, but better than expectations. That is all that counts, and the market will rally on that news. Plus the expected reviving the uptick rule, will make the markets more difficult for traders to do bear raid type shorting. The foregoing assumes that the bad bank program gets figured out, and actually works.
Below I show the banking index. I have circled three previous occasions since the first of the year where we have a bearish evening star (3 day) candlestick pattern. The market moves higher the first day, gaps up the second day, and falls down deep into the first day advance on the third day. This shows that market buying pressure is topping and subsiding. This pattern is highly reliable, as seen by the big selloffs as noted in the 3 previous occurrences. If the banks go down, it will all go down, like a leg giving way.
Trade carefully.
View attachment 6110
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Excellent analysis, Uptrend! Gold star!
And we should probably keep in mind that one reason for the interdependence of the $BKX and S&P is that almost 14% of the S&P is bank stocks.
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis.
Lady
Uptrend
Well-known member
I regard Jack Crooks a very technical and "smart" currency trader. His analysis suggests that the dollar is due for a rebound is contrary to what many folks are thinking. The dollar is resting on a key retracement level as seen in the chart below.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/what-a-difference-a-week-makes-32902
Despite the plunge in the US, the world economy is a diaster that is trailering the US and unfolding. As Jack says, risk aversion should push the US dollar strength much higher. What I think this means for the US markets is some weakness in energy and solar, commodities, and transports. If you believe that tech, energy and financials are the three legs of the market, then the energy leg will be injured. Put that together with the financial sector being overbought at the moment, and you have a short-term correction in the market, as I postulated in my last post. Once financials stabilize, then I think the market still runs higher to the 200 sma on the charts. A stronger dollar wll keep US inflation low, while keeping interest rates low, which will put some economic recovery possibilities in the market and drive it higher. I know optionsman has done well in the I fund recently, while the dollar was being hammered, but now I would probably stand clear.
Trade carefully.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Down market was expected (See my post #673). Holding all cash (G fund) until I see confirmation of more upside. The futures point to spx 789 today which is a support line. If that fails it is spx 768.
Before this rally ends looking for somewhere between spx 980 -1107.
My trading tag is on wait.
coolhand
Well-known member
Yep. That would put us up around the 200dma. I agree that we'll be heading higher after this shot down. Mark Young has an IT buy on his sentiment analysis and we still have the IT buy on the Seven Sentinels.
coolhand
Well-known member
I may have to take back the buy on the Seven Sentinels. IYB says they're giving a sell signal now, but when I looked at them they were not all on sell. Not sure what he's seeing at the moment. :blink:
He's going to post something about this later, so hopefully we'll get a final read from him later this evening.
Uptrend
Well-known member
IFT's are unlocked Great! Market is chopping around. Not so great. Englanders are smashing buildings in London. Not so great. G-20 meeting eve, ADP increasing unemployment, not so great.
I am Not going to rush out and buy because I cannot determine market direction. We should be in a retracement wave, after a big move up. If you believe in price, pattern and time, we had had the price adjustment, but not the pattern adjustment, nor the time adjustment to continue. The market in all probability will not just keep going straight up.
It appears to me that the market mover may be the labor report on Friday. We need to retrace to at lest spx 768 before continuing the rally. Until I see that, or an escape to the upside on the spx 838 pivot, I will not trade.
As for the USD, there is a dropping 20 ma that is crossing the 50 ma to the downside. This means the dollar advance has a lid on it right now, and I see that precious metals are up a little.
Don't be fooled by the market chop and swing games.
My trading tag is on G
Uptrend
Well-known member
It is easy to want to get bullish on the market at this point. But with 2 IFT/month we are hand-cuffed. We made spx 833 last Thursday, and are a little over that now. We might have a M pattern froming in the short term, if the market stalls in this area today. I am still expecting a reversal deeper than we have seen so far, at lest to spx 768 if not spx 734. When that bump in the road happens, I will be all in.
Toms commentary last night with his chart showing major market bottoms is quite revealing. So far we are tracing the 1938 bear market pretty well. You can see that the first major low hits in about 25-30 trading days after the rally began. March 10 + 25-30 trading days puts us in the week of April 13-17. We may be even forming the mini M pattern before the reversal (forming the right side of the M today). This lines up with Elliot wave theory of a A B C pattern against the market trend. Still in wave A. Markets may not repeat, but based on the time factor, I am thinking the first real low may come in that time period.
Trade Carefully. Wait tag on GSimilar threads
